Snow Sense

I have been looking at the models. Do I always rely on models? Only if it makes sense.

I cannot understand how some models are hyping this system into some type of overachiever for our region.

The only places to see something worth talking about is around the area of low pressure, a deformation band capable of spitting out a nice amount over a period of time.

Of course, dry slots accompany these types of systems as well, as St Louis is finding out. Lesser amounts than expected are now being forecast because a dry slot is working in conjunction with a warmer ground where snow is currently falling.

Here, the main low pressure will be far too north of our region to do much of anything substantial.

Are we really relying on overachieving snow showers to carry the bulk of our accumulation? Then, don't expect much.

Between an initial warm and wet ground and a gusty wind, I cannot say with certainty that more than 1" will be realized for most of us in Kentucky as this secondary low passes by quickly.

Right now, the heaviest snowfall I can see happening will be from Louisville to Cincinnati line where 1-2" are possible but probably more like up to 1.5".

MS