Thursday, June 27, 2013

2013 vs 2012 - 90 Degree Days

It appears we won't reach 90 degrees for the rest of this month. Let's compare this year's number of 90 degree days to last year's up to this point.

2012 (thru Jun 30) - 17 days
2013 - 5 days

Not only is 2013's days in the 90's much lower than last year's, we are  below normal compared to the 30-year average of 7.6 days.

However do not forget about the impressive heat ridge out west. It may not affect us right away, but I expect by the middle of next month, summer will be in full swing.

MS

Rainfall Amounts For Louisville And Surrounding Areas

From midnight on June 26 to 10:00am today, here are a few rainfall totals across Louisville and parts of the state.

St Matthews - 4.21"
Beargrass Creek Pumping Station - 3.66"
J'town - 3.23"
Floyds Fork WQTC - 2.76"
Morris Forman - 2.35"
Jefferson Mall - 2.32"

Since Monday June 24 ending 11:59:59 June 26:

Shepherdsville - 2.98"
Madisonville (Hopkins County) - 6.07"
Shelbyville 3.47"
Lexington 2.45"
Frankfort 2.99"
Louisville (official) 2.71"

MS

Wednesday, June 26, 2013

Rating Severe Chances for Today

So far this year, at least here in Louisville, severe weather has been kept at a minimum. The potential for severe weather was always there but subtle oddities like leftover convective debris inhibiting future initiation during the heating of the day or just the time of the day when strong/severe storms approach the area and weaken as loss of sunlight meant loss of instability or unusually strong cap inhibits storm development.

Here we go again. Severe weather chances are in the forecast. The potential is there. Now, what are the odds?

One cluster of storms pushed through the region early this morning. I'm following two other clusters to the northwest. These storms are leaving a trail of convective debris that might have an effect on our severe storm chances for today.

However, the language from the NWS here in Louisville indicates a good possibility of severe storms for the region, primarily damaging winds.

The analogs I follow are suggesting at least a 40 percent chance for severe storms today/this evening.

The SPC has put the region in a high-end slight risk category for damaging winds.

We've been in this position before. As in those cases, severe weather faded as they approached the area for the most part. No widespread severe weather at least.

What do I expect?

Dew point readings are high. MCV's have been consistently developing to the northwest. They like to travel along high dew point areas. Even if we don't get the MCV's, a front will be in the area. Heavy rains will become a problem. I think that we stand a good chance for widespread damaging winds near Louisville. Other areas include southern Indiana and western KY and southwest IN. Could be an active day.

Expect watches later this afternoon for a large chunk of real estate.

MS


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