MikJournal Monday 09/30/2019...Record Setting Month Coming to a Close

Good last Monday of a memorable month of September. You are witnessing something that may not be repeated for a very long time.

Several locations like Louisville and Lexington will record their hottest and driest September ever. In fact, it will be the driest month of any year for the respective climatological records.

But, October looks to start out the same way. Therefore, places like Louisville and possibly Lexington will likely set all-time record high temperatures for the month of October.

As you may have noticed, I have not posted a Welcome page for Autumn yet, because it's been too hot. But, temperatures are soon going to return to normal October standards by the end of this week.

At Lexington, annual precipitation stands at 36.51", just 2.03" above normal for the year.  This same time last year, we were closing out a record-setting wet month that bolstered our annual precipitation to 53.75". Wow. What a difference a year makes, from record wettest September in 2018 to record driest month ever 2019.

So, with the cooler air slated to arrive later this month, one would expect a nice line of beneficial rain to impact the area. Well, not so fast my friend. Although some forecast centers like WPC are showing beneficial rainfall for parts of central Kentucky by next Sunday, current local forecasts show dry weather for the rest of the week, with a slight chance (<=20 %) by sometime next weekend, perhaps awaiting future data to determine if the rainfall will be meager or actually for real this time.

Therefore, for places like Lexington, their record 37 day dry streak looks to be in jeopardy. At 33 days currently, if it does not rain by this Friday, a new record will be established.

Annually, it's looking more and more difficult for Lexington to eek out an above normal year in the precipitation department. This could be the driest year since 2012, when Lexington finished nearly 2.5" below normal for the year.

I will post some MikJournal Moments this week, highlighting records and expanding on any hope for substantial rainfall for our region.

Thanks for checking in. Now, I'm checking out. Have a good week.

MS

MikJournal Moment 09/19/2019

According to the weekly Drought Monitor, 67 percent of Kentucky is abnormally dry. 26.26 percent is in at least a D1 drought. Burn bans have been issued in at least 50 counties in Kentucky.

Drought conditions forecast to persist through December 31 for portions of central and east Kentucky.

The July-September time frame could be the driest period since 1999 for Louisville. I'm projecting about an inch for the month of September, which would almost equal 5.00" for the period. The only other periods in Louisville's historical climate for July-September when precipitation amounts were under 5.00" were 1999, 1983, 1943, 1941, 1940, and 1930.

Dry streak records continue to fall this week...as of September 17
Corners...20 days
McDaniels...20
Salyersville Water Works...20
Taylorsville Lake...20

MikJournal Moment 09/15/2019

Dry Update:
19 consecutive days with no measurable rainfall at my house in Valley Station, KY.
19 days...Louisville International
18 days...Louisville Bowman Field
18 days...Lexington Bluegrass AP

Dry Streak Records Threatened:
Inez...17 days (19)
London...17 days (23)
Louisville Bowman Field...18 days (23)

Impressive Dry Streak and Temperatures
Louisville International 1953:
36 days of no measurable rain (not a record)
Temperature high/low examples:
09-29......99/52
10-19.....86/43

MikJournal Monday 09/02/2019...Welcome to Meteorogical Autumn

Yes. Good Monday and the first day of meteorological Autumn. But, this does not mean Summer is going away completely. It's a nice day out there today, and it's a little warm.

However, we're looking at an awesome forecast for the week, especially later this week.

First, headline hog Hurricane Dorian has just been downgraded to a category 4 storm as I'm writing this, shortly after the noon hour. The thing is barely moving. Soon, a weakness between 2 ridges will allow the Big 'D' an opportunity to sneak through and begin its north and eventual northeastward swim, perhaps staying offshore but not far enough for any impacts to be lessened along a huge swath of the southeast coastline.

The forecast for high winds, relentless surf, and other flooding concerns has already prompted a mass evacuation plan from the coastlines of Florida to South Carolina. Even my favorite vacation spot at Myrtle Beach looks to be cancelled later this week, as the State Park is officially closed until further notice. Bummer!

I'm quite sure we'll hear complainers yacking about "why did they have to evacuate?" Oh, and my personal favorite, "People are just getting too soft these days."

I do not see any real good chances for rainfall in our region for the next several days. Although the majority of the state of Kentucky is still considered to be above average in the rainfall department for the year, I am projecting that the August numbers will show that the state was 'below average' for the first time this year. And this may even knock Kentucky down a level to 'Near Average' albeit the high end of that level for the calendar year 2019.

Well, I hate to cut the post short, but I do have to find some alternative vacation plans.

Talk later...

MS