MikJournal Call for Snowfall on Wednesday the 20th

Since there are two systems arriving this week, I have to separate them, you see.

First, our system #1 arrives overnight into the daylight hours on your Wednesday with snow the primary p-type.

It will encounter a formidable air mass, modifying the temperature and dewpoint of the atmosphere as it chugs along. How long that takes for snow to reach the ground will result in the difference between a decent accumulation and a significant accumulation.

The heaviest snow will fall nearest and just north of the low pressure track. Imagine in your mind the low traveling from northwest to southeast then curving east southeast then eastward.

Areas where the low makes that curve should experience the heaviest snowfall amounts. But again, system #1 will be battling a fiercely dry airmass, weakening somewhat as it runs into this stubborn wall. Any additional moisture gained from the Gulf will simply be offset somewhat by the modification process, and this will be evident for one who is farther north of the low.

Since this is a system of Pacific origin, a reinforcement of Arctic air will not happen after the system exits. Nevertheless, any snowpack will affect the air at and just above the surface and pave the way for our system #2.

Based on the NAM's 0z run last night and the 12z run this morning along with a fudge factor on my part, here are some select amounts for parts of western Kentucky to areas along and west of I-75 for the Wednesday system only....

Leitchfield....3-4"
Greenville.....3-5"
Princeton......3-5"
Bowling Green...2-4"
E'Town....2-4"
Louisville....2-3"
Carrollton...1-3"
Campbellsville...2-3"
Lexington.....1-2"
Frankfort....1-3"

MS