January Mid-Month Report

Is it cold enough for you yet? As I write this post, my temperature here in Valley Station is 32 degrees and cloudy, dreary, blah.

Yet, temperatures are going to tank again, perhaps eclipsing the cold readings we had a few days ago. Single digit surface temperatures and below zero wind chills can be expected late Sunday night into at least the first part of our Monday holiday.

So far, temperatures for the month are running a little above normal for the Louisville, Lexington, and Bowling Green official NWS reporting sites. For the winter season of December through February, everyone is solidly above normal.

Precipitation is running below normal for everyone this month. However, only Bowling Green is now below normal for the winter season.

Among the 3 reporting sites, the highest temperature for the month has been 61 degrees and the lowest has been 9. However, the lowest temperature may need to be adjusted in the next few days.

Snowfall has been meager for Lexington and Bowling Green thus far. Somehow, Louisville ended up with a couple of nice squalls the other day that put down a decent amount of snow in a very short time, then just disappeared since temperatures were near or just above freezing.

The cold air looks to stick around for a few more days, then a moderating in temperatures can be expected. In fact, we may be looking at above normal readings for a consecutive stretch of days. The teleconnection patterns I have been following will be falling out of alignment soon.

The AO will be trending toward neutral, and may even go positive for a time. Similarly, the NAO will be trending toward positive thus losing its grip on keeping any serious cold air that will be funneled into our region. The PNA will still be positive though trending slightly downward during the next several days. That means average to above average temperatures can be expected with this type of alignment.

Here's an interesting part of this report. Now, I am not trying to make a forecast out of this, for there are several arrows the upcoming pattern can follow.

However, I do believe that between now and the first part of February, wintry precipitation of perhaps warning criteria will happen. Now, I say wintry precipitation because p-types for the state may vary.

I have seen when we have had a brutal stretch of cold weather followed by a decent southern stream that lays down a stripe of heavy snowfall or even a thin line of ice for the region followed by a warming trend just a couple of days later.

Could a system for the upcoming week carry out this type of assault on our region? It is possible.

Another scenario. The AO is expected to go back to negative by February. This will help usher in colder air for much of the east coast again. With an increasingly active southern jet stream, perhaps this will be a nice time for cold to settle in while overrunning warmer air from a rich moisture source of the Gulf of Mexico affects us with a variety of precipitation types again. Then we get locked in a cold pattern of longer duration for perhaps up to several days.

I do think this could be the most active part of the winter season between now and the middle of February. So buckle up, here we go.

MS