Sunday, February 24, 2013

Ready For Spring? Not Yet...

The Climate Prediction Center has published its medium range and long range temperature and precipitation  products for March. If you're hoping for spring-like conditions, well, the first part of the month is not looking too good.

The CPC updates its medium range outlooks often. So check the links below.

For the period covering March 1-9, below normal temperatures can be expected. In fact, probabilities within a range of 50-70% are highlighted. That's an unusually high confidence range.

Precipitation for the same period is expected to come in at below normal. Sounds right to me.

We look to be in a persistent northwest flow pattern which tends to keep the moisture and warmer air from reaching us via the Gulf of Mexico.

However, do not despair. The CPC provided its monthly outlook for March this past Thursday, the 21st.
Once this persistent cold pattern breaks down, the warmer air out west will overtake us. In fact, a persistent warm pattern looks to set in. But, along with the warmer temperatures will bring a better chance for more precipitation.

CPC's 6-10 Day Temperature Outlook

CPC's 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook

CPC's 6-10 Day Precipitation Outlook

CPC's 8-14 Day Precipitation Outlook

March 's 30-Day Temperature Outlook

March's 30-Day Precipitation Outlook

MS

Tuesday, February 19, 2013

Yep, Another One of Those

Ohio Valley winter is dynamic, though at times it may seem static for most (aka no big snow).

Another storm system is ready to confound the weather pros again. However, the final outcome will result in rain.

Initial precipitation is going to be the tricky part. Apparently rain should be the dominant type; however, surface temperatures may be a problem for some.

A recent GFS analog and a NAM forecast support best chance for ice from Louisville to Cincinnati. I would place the best chance from Carrollton to Cincinnati. At least 0.1" ice accumulation is possible before surface temperatures warm above freezing.

Expect changes to the forecast as storm track data becomes more readily available.

MS

MikJournal Monday 09/18/2017...Remembering Hurricane Hugo and Maria Looming

Welcome to another installment of MikJournal Monday. It looks like a pretty quiet week in terms of weather. Yes, there will be a few showers...