Monday, December 31, 2018

Severe Thunderstorm Watch New Year's Eve

A severe thunderstorm Watch has been issued for the Louisville Metro area. There may be enough instability to help fuel at least isolated severe thunderstorms across the area. Stay tuned to your favorite media sources for further updates.

MS

Sunday, December 30, 2018

Wettest Year Ever Watch - Louisville

***Louisville Sets Wettest Year Mark for 2nd Time This Decade***
As of 9:30 a.m. this New Year's Eve, Louisville breaks annual precipitation previously set in 2011.
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As of this early Sunday morning, December 30, Louisville has an annual precipitation total of 67.35". The current all-time annual wettest mark is 68.02", set earlier this decade in 2011.

Rain is forecast to break out late Sunday night into Monday, New Year's Eve. Rain totals are expected to exceed the needed 0.68" to set the wettest year mark for the 2nd time this decade.

Therefore, the Wettest Year Ever Watch continues for Louisville. This page will update when Louisville sets the mark.

MS

Monday, December 24, 2018

MikJournal SPECIAL Edition 12/24/2018...The Northeast 2017/2018 Snow Season

It was a long, arduous process. Since I finally had a day off from work, I decided to dig into the numbers and wound up digging out some impressive snow totals from the previous snow season that ran from July 1, 2017 through June 30, 2018.

The list may not be totally complete, since some locations had incomplete or missing data. Nevertheless, I discovered so many impressive snow amounts that I could only limit the list to those locations that reached at least 100". In fact one of the locations was one that I did not even follow and it ranked number 1.

Another location but was not included in the list for missing data was a place called Mount Mansfield in northern Vermont. A secondary resource, On the Snow (a ski report page), listed the Stowe location in its Historical Snowfall section and I calculated a total of 258" that fell during the snow season.

In addition, Mount Washington in New Hampshire, home of the world's worst weather as it is claimed, recorded 345.1", according to its F6 form listed on the Website below....
https://www.mountwashington.org/experience-the-weather/mount-washington-weather-archives/monthly-f6.aspx

So, here's your list of the Northeast's 100" club....

        387.9 Redfield NY
        284.1 Hooker NY
        269.7 Perrysburg NY
        268.5 Osceola NY
        234.0 Springville NY
        217.8 Highmarket NY
        203.9 Colden NY
        192.5 Pinkham Notch NH
        192.5 Warsaw NY
        188.2 Wyoming  NY
        183.6 Attica NY
        173.6 Cattaraugus NY
        172.2 Palermo NY
        166.7 Fulton NY
        164.2 Lowville NY
        163.5 Pulaski NY
        163.5 Peru VT
        163.1 Oswego East NY
        159.7 Camden NY
        155.6 Laurel Summit PA
        153.6 Syracuse NY
        152.5 Gloversville NY
        151.5 Little Valley NY
        149.5 Boonville NY
        147.1 Terra Alta WV
        145.7 Sutton VT
        145.4 Glenfield NY
        141.0 Watertown NY
        140.9 Chandlers Valley PA
        137.2 Caribou ME
        134.5 Big Moose NY
        132.2 Auburn NY
        131.2 Rowe MA
        130.9 Wales NY
        130.0 Topsfield ME
        129.2 Jefferson NH
        126.4 Silver Springs NY
        126.1 Hartford ME
        126.0 First  Connecticut Lake NH
        126.0 East Hawley MA
        125.0 Franklinville NY
        124.2 E. Surry ME
        123.6 Jamestown NY
        123.5 Webster NY
        123.3 Fort Kent ME
        120.5 Rochester NY
        119.5 Snowshoe WV
        119.4 Eustis ME
        118.5 Rangeley 2 ME
        118.4
Gouveneur NY
        117.9 Hollis ME
        117.8 Theresa NY
        117.7 Rangeley ME
        117.5 Walton NY
        117.3 Brassua Dam ME
        117.0 Malone NY
        116.4 Bayard WV
        116.3 Island Pond VT
        114.6 Corinth VT
        114.5 Fredonia NY
        114.5 Portland NY
        114.1 Rumford ME
        113.4 York Pond NH
        112.3 Buffalo NY
        111.9 Rushford NY
        111.3 Bangot ME
        111.1 Moosehead ME
        110.9 Harmony ME
        110.4 Livermore Falls ME 
        110.4 Newcastle ME
        109.3 Somerset PA
        107.9 Brockport NY
        107.5 Norfolk CT
        106.6 Indian Lake NY
        104.4 East Haven VT
        104.4 Dunkirk NY
        101.8 North Conway NH
        101.3 Poland ME
        101.2 Belfast ME
        101.2 Bridgton ME
        101.1 Durham ME
        100.8 West Hampstead NH
        100.7 Berlin NH
        100.1 Windham ME

Monday, December 10, 2018

MikJournal Monday 12/10/2018...Reflection Time

Good Monday to you. The latest winter storm has finally exited our region. Some, obviously not all, received a significant amount of freezing rain, sleet, and snow over the weekend. By and large, this was a difficult weather system to forecast. Let's take a moment to reflect on just what happened.

First, all computer models performed horribly. Some were better than others. The highest grade I would have given any model, well, perhaps a C+. Therefore, if you applied a curve like what we would have gotten on a college exam, well then, suddenly the grades don't look so bad, and the models did okay. Baloney!

And the forecasters who rely on these things? Well, let's just say they struggled. Admittedly, some tackled this thing head on, but, obviously, even they had no idea how it would all really work out in the end. Just spin the wheel and hope for the best.

However, one thing (of several things) that bothered me was a presentation of various computer forecast models. Pretty much by the time one showed all of the different solutions from all of the computer model runs, the entire state of Kentucky was going to be affected, which in the end was certainly not true. Therefore, if a forecaster presents all of these, even if the likelihood of it happening, was miniscule, the forecaster should be blamed for including this in any presentation for his forecast that causes ambiguity and confuses his audience .

It takes a certain skillset to present ONLY the models that make the most sense to the forecaster. No need to present 'outliers' unless the forecaster feels strongly that the outlier should be included based on a summarized, persuasive explanation supporting his argument(s). Otherwise, any inclusion of additional, possibly irrelevant data could cause confusion and actually show a lack of competence on the part of the forecaster. I have seen it happen when a forecaster puts out all of these computer models actually takes credit for including the one least likely to happen, even though it was not part of his/her original suite of forecast models supporting his ongoing forecast. Yep. Just trying to cover his/her you know what.

One other thing. When precipitation types are reported, especially by the public, I cringe seemingly every time I read these things.

Freezing rain is NOT something frozen that falls from the sky. It is the same liquid rain that you see in a summertime thunderstorm. The only difference is the liquid rain that falls from the sky becomes frozen on contact with any surface that is at or below 32 degrees Fahrenheit or 0 degrees Celsius.

Examples of frozen precipitation that falls from the sky include graupel, or soft hail, that looks like foam balls quietly bouncing off the windshield; hail, which typically falls during a strong/severe thunderstorm and causes damage; sleet, or ice pellets, which we can easily hear bouncing off our windshields, windows, leaves in the yard, grill tops, roof tops, yeah you get it;  and good-old-fashioned snow, the most beautiful object falling from the sky.

Therefore, one cannot have freezing rain and 35 degrees. However, one can have sleet, or ice pellets, falling, and if it falls heavily, can leave a crunchy, or 'snow-cone' type of ice accumulation initially until the rate diminishes and the relatively warmer ground or object commences to melt the ice pellet.

Hopefully, for you ones who have been negatively impacted by the ice/snow accumulations, perhaps power outages, stuck at home because of blocked driveways or roadways, or even collapsed car ports, hang in there. Milder air will visit for a few days, but with additional rain chances later this week.

In conclusion, the Kentucky Mesonet site at Harlan county near the top of Black Mountain has now recorded 80.76" precipitation for 2018 as of last night.

Let's have a good week.

MS

Monday, December 3, 2018

MikJournal December 2018 Outlook

As promised, I will not offer any Winter *forecast*, since it is for entertainment purposes only. Even if I was to offer a guess, believe me, it would be entertaining.

Despite the impractical side of forecasting a 3-4 month range of weather when no meteorologists can accurately forecast two weeks out, a monthly outlook can offer a more realistic and hopefully more accurate presentation despite its shortcomings or limitations.

Here's what we know. El Nino conditions are present. Often, this tropical feature found way out in the Pacific helps drive weather patterns, yes even here in the United States. But, we also have to remember that other atmospheric contributors can have more influence.

But, what we don't know is which atmospheric contributor(s) will weigh more heavily on our regional weather patterns?

I am going to post a teleconnections page here. Now, this will change nearly daily. But, pay special attention to the PNA, NAO, and the EPO....



I have heard it said that we need a PNA+, NAO-, EPO-, and an AO-, which I'll get to in just a moment, for a reasonable shot at a potent winter storm for our region.

Personally, in my observations, I prefer to see a PNA+ trending negative, NAO- trending positive, EPO- trending positive, and an AO- trending positive.

The chart above presents the mid-range players. They are still important. But, one of the main drivers of our winter patterns is the Arctic Oscillation. Here is a source that gives us an outlook for that one....



Enlarge the chart if necessary, but look at the top part of the chart, the red lines are the forecast. I like to see an AO-. Also, what I have noticed in recent years is a definitive V-shape becomes apparent that is a good indicator for winter storm/precipitation potential, one that is potentially more significant than a northwest flow of snow showers/flurries.

Look at the right side of the V. The AO should reach its most negative point (the bottom of the V), then trend toward neutral or positive. Allowing a few days or so, the cold air in place regionally should begin to have moisture entrained within the main flow, usually tapping into Pacific/Gulf of Mexico moisture. That is a good sign for a potential winter storm for our region.

However, I would still like to see the other players align a little better.  As I write this, the AO is on board for a significant winter storm, but there is still alignment issues with the NAO and the EPO. These are not major alignment issues. That tells me that a part of our region may still be affected by the upcoming weather system with wintry consequences. There is still time for these issues to work out.

Looking ahead, the weather should begin to normalize toward mid-month. However, as has been the case recently, a reloading of cold air will commence and likely plunge into the region sometime after this. During the holiday week, temperatures may try to recover again with precipitation chances being introduced. Could there be snow chances? It's looking like a possibility.

Normal to below normal temperatures to end the last week of the year looks like a possibility. More precipitation chances too. But, this time it looks like a wet solution than a white one. Let's see how it works out.

MS

Saturday, December 1, 2018

Lexington Sets Wettest Year Ever or Since 2011

Lexington has done it again. For the second time this decade, the area has set an all-time wettest year, breaking the previous record of 66.35" set in 2011. The final tally is yet to be determined, but 70" is a realistic possibility by December 31.

MS

Tornadoes on Easter Sunday

This is a worse case scenario. Tornadoes and flooded, blocked roadways making for great difficulties reaching residences affecting hard hit ...