Welcome to the Spring page with exciting features on gardening, severe weather, temperature and precipitation amounts for Kentucky and other U.S. locations.

Friday, December 2, 2016

MikJournal 2016/2017 Winter Prediction

A summary of the upcoming winter 2016-2017...
For the official winter months of December through February, I am expecting below normal temperatures for the Louisville and Lexington areas while we should be on either side of normal snowfall, or favoring slightly above average for Louisville and slightly below normal for Lexington.

I will introduce the December contribution for the winter during this segment....

The climatic pattern favors below normal temperatures across the region. I think that this will largely be due in part to a favorable snow cover over the Eurasian areas and low sea ice extent, which helps increase high pressure over the Arctic region leading to lower pressure for the mid latitudes. My Meteorologist instructor always says that it is easier for pressure to flow from high to low. In other words, strong polar winds, which generally keep the cold up there, will be more relaxed, allowing for chunks of cold, polar air to dive southward toward the relatively lower pressure in our neck of the woods.

What I just described is the Arctic Oscillation, a type of teleconnection that helps predict the behavior of cold air based on the differences in pressure of the polar latitudes and the mid latitudes. I will be using this feature as a primary component in my month to month predictions for temperatures.

Another important driver that I personally think may contribute to the winter is the unusual southeast drought. While we have seen an overall easing of the devastating, prolonged dry spell there, I think this pattern has already upset the balance for the first part of our winter. Archived data shows mixed results for overall snowfall amounts during December mired in a severe drought for our region.

I do think we will see more opportunities for snowfall this month than in years past, since the cold air will be more prominent. However, after this month, we will have to wait and see if the Southeast ridge establishes a firm footing and where, which may introduce several chances of the cold versus warmer air. Increased chances of freezing rain/drizzle may already become a problem for parts of the Southeast later this month into the first part of next year.

January's prediction will be out later this month...

MS

Monday, October 31, 2016

A New Record...Warmest October on Record at Louisville

Okay, I might be jumping the gun, as they say, but unless my Excel spreadsheet has a serious flaw, I expect a new record for the warmest October ever here at Louisville to become official by tomorrow morning.

The old record set in 1900 was 66.1 degrees (average of high and low temperature)
I expect at least 66.2 degrees.

Other notable entries include a top ten warmest October for Lexington and Frankfort.
In addition, Frankfort should make the list for the top ten driest October on record.

MS

Monday, October 17, 2016

MikJournal Monday 10/17/16

Good Monday morning. I must say, despite the lack of rain around here, no measurable rain at my house in at least 17 days, the weather has been absolutely amazing. Why, we're talking about late August/early September weather for the next couple of days.

In fact, if Louisville reaches the 90 degree mark by tomorrow, it will mark the latest 90-degree day on record at the NWS office.

It has certainly been stormy over the northwest part of the U.S. High winds and heavy rains ransacked the region over the past few days, even tornadoes were reported! Generally, winds from 45-60 mph were common across several of the weather offices in the Seattle's area of responsibility, which led to some power outages. However, I did see some gusts over 100 mph closer to the coast and higher elevations.

Rainfall totals have been appreciable, to say the least. But, even in places where high rainfall amounts are the norm, like Forks WA, even their 14.27" for the month of October is well above average so far.

I would be remissed if I did not mention the 27th anniversary of the Loma Prieta earthquake in 1989. Preparing to watch game 3 of the World Series between the Bay teams of the San Francisco Giants and Oakland A's, the violent 6.9 quake struck, causing extensive damage throughout the Bay area.

Some freeways collapsed which caused most of the 60+ deaths. Yet, it was a fairly low death toll considering the time of day and large population in that region of Oakland and San Francisco.

Obviously, the World Series game was cancelled, and it would be 10 days before game 3 would commence. The Goodyear blimp, which would have been covering the World Series, helped provide an aerial overview of the damage throughout the area.

Enjoy the weather for the next couple of days. Changes are coming, and it includes something actually liquid falling from the skies. I better clean out the rain gauge and get it ready for action.

Have a good week....
MS

Monday, October 10, 2016

MikJournal Monday 10/10/16

Good Monday morning and a rare post indeed from the most versatile weather person I know. Me. Of course, when I say versatile, I mean I can go from the most enthusiastic weather reporter to an out and out complainer/sore loser.

So, what has been up with me? Why have I forsaken weather? Why has nobody heard from me lately?

Well, instead of just writing about the weather, I have been out there actually experiencing it. Our family enjoyed a 7-day cruise to the eastern Caribbean in the Virgin Islands a few months ago. Great hiking, swimming, eating, and of course, the rum were a few of the highlights for that trip.

Just last week, we camped out at Myrtle Beach State Park and had a really good time. The campfire cooking was great, the weather was warm during the day and pleasant at night, the waves were perfect for body-boarding, travel to and from was ideal.

Fortunately for our family, we left there before conditions deteriorated, both travel and weather. It breaks my heart for the residents who had to endure the atrocities Matthew brought to them. Locally, families with loved ones in hard hit areas along the east coast were worried for their loved one's safety.

I am confident that residents and local/state officials will recover from this and the many tourists will once again enjoy the beauty and splendor of these affected areas.

Here at home, my garden produced way too much vegetables. The size of my bell peppers were the largest I have ever grown. Since I was not really prepared for such a bountiful harvest, many of my plants broke, almost split in half in some instances. Yet, despite the damage, these plants stubbornly put out more produce. Simply amazing.

It has been getting drier around here. After a brief appearance in the 'abnormally dry' category late last month, we here in north central Kentucky just may revisit that category with the next report by this Thursday, joining our fellow Kentuckians in the eastern and southeastern parts of the state, who may slip into drought status. Of course, this is all contingent on whether we see any appreciable rainfall or not.

Winter is not too far away. One of my favorite weather sites is the Mount Washington Observatory in New Hampshire. At nearly 6,300 feet they recorded their first measurable snow/ice accumulation of the season yesterday along with a bone-jarring, teeth-rattling wind chill of -2 degrees this morning.

I hope to update my blog soon with interesting and informative sites to visit. Just give me some time, because quite likely, I'll still be out there enjoying the weather instead of just writing about it.

Make it a good one. We'll talk again soon.

MS