Welcome to the Spring page with exciting features on gardening, severe weather, temperature and precipitation amounts for Kentucky and other U.S. locations.

Tuesday, July 12, 2016

A Very Wet July So Far

We have not even reached the middle of the month, yet some places in Western Kentucky have recorded nearly 14" so far. A few locations are closing in on a foot of rain.

This morning and early afternoon, Calhoun in McClean County has received nearly 5 and a half inches since midnight, easily doubling their total coming into today of 5.27".

A compact shield of moderate to heavy rain continues to lumber along a west to east, maybe slightly north of east, line from near Evansville through Owensboro and Tell City IN and approaching the Louisville area.

It will be interesting to see how this shield holds together or if it will weaken. However, additional storms are backbuilding to the west and may train over areas to the tune of 2-3" of rain with locally heavier amounts in thunderstorms along the Ohio River in Louisville. We might be testing the Flash Flood guidance for a 3-hour period, which should be running in the 3" range.

I think I would issue a Watch for the area anyway, just as a precautionary measure, especially for points just south and west of the area that have received heavier rainfall during the past few days.

MS

Monday, July 4, 2016

MikJournal Monday July 4 Edition

Good morning. While July rainfall is always welcome for us gardeners, too much of a good thing can even happen in July, especially on a holiday like the 4th.

Louisville has recorded 2 of its top ten wettest July days ever on the 4th...

1896...5.04" (#2)
1984...4.60"(#3)

Speaking of the year 1896, another top ten wettest July day occurred on the 21st at 3.41", a very wet month overall at 13.01".

In 1984 on this date, Louisville received 4.26" during a 4-hour period from about 2:00 - 6:00 in the morning which caused some minor flooding issues. At least there weren't too many traffic issues thanks to the holiday.

Also, a thunderstorm wind gust of 49 mph was recorded at Standiford Field causing scattered power outages throughout the county and totalling one car when a tree toppled onto it.

Therefore, while another soggy and stormy 4th is expected across the region, hopefully, record rainfall amounts and severe weather will be kept to a minimum.

For Louisville, a minimum of 3.12" would need to occur today for a top ten wettest July day on record.

However, if we become stuck in this pattern of heavy rain, we could be talking about top ten wettest July months on record...again.

Here are the required minimums to achieve a top ten wettest July ever...

Louisville...7.33" (we had 8.65" in July of last year)
Lexington...8.01" (we had 9.66" in July of last year)
Bowling Green...8.23"

Thanks in part to the Storm Data Publication from the NCDC, now a part of the NCEI, the National Centers for Environmental Information.

MS

Thursday, June 23, 2016

Analogs Mixed About Widespread Severe Weather

Good morning. I have decided to chime in on the potential for severe weather today and into the evening.

One perspective I look at are how past weather systems that are somewhat similar to the one in question behaved. These are known as analogs.

According to a couple of datasets, primary locations for severe weather both included eastern Kentucky.

However, it is difficult to separate out the 'noise' since we have already seen a large complex of strong storms pass through this area. In other words, were the analogs picking up on the MCS as the culprit for severe weather potential or the actual front later today?

Percentages...Both datasets say greater than 50% chance for at least one severe weather event along and east of Interstate 65. But, the percentage drops a bit when it comes to 10 severe weather events.

Still, the eastern part of the state has the highest chances for today. But has that chance now passed or is that chance going to be realized later with the front?

Regardless, heavy rain potential is a given, very likely for many of us today. While I am not overly bullish on widespread severe weather today, I strongly urge ones to keep an eye to the sky, listen to local media outlets, and have a programmable weather radio nearby. Most stores carry these types for about $30 or so. I have a Midland model and it works very well for me.

MS

Wednesday, June 8, 2016

Enjoying Time Off

Good afternoon. A stranger is in your midst. No, I haven't been hibernating, but I have been enjoying some time away from weather, or at least writing about weather.
However, I still read others' weather blogs. I will still chime in at times when noteworthy weather looks to impact the area.
A cruise, gardening, work, and sinus/ear infections have taken quite a bit of my time.
I look forward to writing again in the near future.
Have a good week my weather friends.

MS