Welcome to the last Monday of the year. Likely this will be the last post of the year. But, I do need to update all the totals on the side of the blog.
Many areas received a nice soaking yesterday, from 1-3", pretty much on target. It's amazing how these same models, though, cannot even come close to forecasting snow totals.
I recorded 1.56" at my place in Valley Station, giving me an annual total of 55.14".
Paducah finally breached 70" (3rd wettest year) while Bowling Green exceeded 60" (6th wettest year)
Frankfort tallied a record wet day yesterday with 1.68"
In addition to the wet, the recent spat of warm days has pushed some of our locations into or near the top ten warmest Decembers ever. Lexington is a lock. Paducah, Bowling Green, Frankfort, and London are all in the hunt. Louisville, though, is out.
Looking ahead to the new year, temperatures will be averaging near or above normal, at least for a the first week. I'm getting mixed signals right now about the second week. GEFS teleconnections keeps our region in a normal to above normal pattern, thanks to a strong AO+ and a PNA-. The EPO will be definitely less than what it has been recently, but still argues for at least a normal temperature pattern and keeping the coldest air to the west .
However, the latest data from the Euro forecast model has an impressive shot of cold air invading the northern US by the 8th of the month, covering real estate from International Falls to Marquette and points south all the way to the northern part of Florida. Over the next few days, it will be interesting to see if there is any lasting commitment to this blast of cold or will it go up in ashes like the recent forecasts for this upcoming winter has gone thus far from some media outlets.
Eventually, the cold will catch us. But, you can avoid catching a cold by washing your hands regularly and having those alcohol wipes nearby for wiping affected surfaces. My daughter is recovering from the Flu at the moment, but is doing better than yesterday.
Monday, December 30, 2019
Wednesday, December 25, 2019
Top Ten Warmest December?
Projection Time....
With an onslaught of very mild air statewide for the next 4-5 days, average temperatures near 20 degrees above normal, this may put locations like Lexington and Louisville in the top ten warmest Decembers ever.
Minimum average of 41.8 for Lexington needed
Minimum average of 44.8 for Louisville needed
Minimum average of 45.3 for Bowling Green needed
Minimum average of 41.8 for Frankfort needed
I am projecting all these areas to finish in the top ten, despite a cool down to near normal for the last couple days of the year.
With an onslaught of very mild air statewide for the next 4-5 days, average temperatures near 20 degrees above normal, this may put locations like Lexington and Louisville in the top ten warmest Decembers ever.
Minimum average of 41.8 for Lexington needed
Minimum average of 44.8 for Louisville needed
Minimum average of 45.3 for Bowling Green needed
Minimum average of 41.8 for Frankfort needed
I am projecting all these areas to finish in the top ten, despite a cool down to near normal for the last couple days of the year.
Friday, December 20, 2019
MikJournal Moments 12/20/2019
The year is winding down. It has been another wet year for many in our region. If you look to the side of the blog, you will notice the annual precipitation. Notice how many have or are close to top ten numbers.
It appears the holiday week will feature above normal temperatures. I did some record retrieving and found that the highest temperature for December 25 at Lexington was 70 degrees in 1982. In Louisville, the highest temperature for the same day was 68 set in 1893.
The teleconnections are still not in good alignment for a significant regional winter storm for the next several days. There is a slight signal that temperatures will cool down some by the first of the year. Then again, that's what was said about December too. We'll see.
It appears the holiday week will feature above normal temperatures. I did some record retrieving and found that the highest temperature for December 25 at Lexington was 70 degrees in 1982. In Louisville, the highest temperature for the same day was 68 set in 1893.
The teleconnections are still not in good alignment for a significant regional winter storm for the next several days. There is a slight signal that temperatures will cool down some by the first of the year. Then again, that's what was said about December too. We'll see.
Monday, December 9, 2019
MikJournal Monday12/09/2019...Winter Threat?
Good morning. Wow. Wait a sec. What day is it? I have 55 degrees at the moment. Normal high and low temperature for this date is 48 and 32 respectively here in Louisville. Looks like another solid day above normal. In fact, the month of December has averaged at least 3 degrees above normal for the month, a far cry from what some were forecasting for this first part of December.
However, we do have a strong cold front that will knock temperatures down for a couple of days. Of immediate interest to us here in Kentucky, is not just the cold air rushing in later tonight, but a wave of low pressure developing along the front that will provide overrunning moisture for many residents of central and eastern/southeastern Kentucky.
Many forecast models are showing hefty amounts of snowfall, like warning criteria. But, the thermal profiles do not look supportive of an all snow event during the entire track of this wave of low pressure. In fact temperatures at the 500 mb level and 850 mb level, snow does not look like the precipitation of choice for many during the first part. Only after the low's departure and subsequent colder air rushing in behind it, will snowfall begin to be realized. So by the time snow is realized, the warm ground along with drier air advecting into the region should limit snowfall amounts for most of us. Still, amounts of at least 4" could be realized in the higher elevations of eastern/southeastern Kentucky.
The teleconnection patterns I follow continue to support relatively mild conditions later this week. But, another shot of cold air is expected though not until at least a week away. So more normal to above normal readings can be expected through the first half of the month. Ones who were expecting a below normal December will be biting their fingernails, hoping the second half of the month will offset the very mild first half.
MS
However, we do have a strong cold front that will knock temperatures down for a couple of days. Of immediate interest to us here in Kentucky, is not just the cold air rushing in later tonight, but a wave of low pressure developing along the front that will provide overrunning moisture for many residents of central and eastern/southeastern Kentucky.
Many forecast models are showing hefty amounts of snowfall, like warning criteria. But, the thermal profiles do not look supportive of an all snow event during the entire track of this wave of low pressure. In fact temperatures at the 500 mb level and 850 mb level, snow does not look like the precipitation of choice for many during the first part. Only after the low's departure and subsequent colder air rushing in behind it, will snowfall begin to be realized. So by the time snow is realized, the warm ground along with drier air advecting into the region should limit snowfall amounts for most of us. Still, amounts of at least 4" could be realized in the higher elevations of eastern/southeastern Kentucky.
The teleconnection patterns I follow continue to support relatively mild conditions later this week. But, another shot of cold air is expected though not until at least a week away. So more normal to above normal readings can be expected through the first half of the month. Ones who were expecting a below normal December will be biting their fingernails, hoping the second half of the month will offset the very mild first half.
MS
Tuesday, December 3, 2019
MikJournal Moment 12/03/2019
Fun Stats....
I took the coldest months of December through February and took the average of Lexington's not-so-complete 147-year climate record to arrive at an average temperature of 34.9 degrees.
Next, I took that 34.9 degrees and came up with a list of how many times each day of those months of December through February were equal to or less than the average.
I have an interesting list compiled on what may be the coldest date of winter for Lexington.
February 11.....82 times
February 8.......81 times
January 30.......79 times
January 25.......79 times
February 9.......78 times
January 15.......78 times
January 10.......78 times
December 26....78 times
For Louisville, the average was 36.2 degrees. Therefore, equal to or less than the average gave me this list...
December 26...92 times
January 24.......88 times
January 30.......87 times
January 27.......86 times
January 4.........86 times
Of course, these numbers may not reflect the same date for the coldest days on record.
For example, Lexington's coldest days ever were on January 24, 1963; January 19, 1994; February 13, 1899; and December 22, 1989.
The chart above just highlights the law of averages.
I can do the same thing with snowfall....
Lexington's date with the most measurable snowfall days during winter is....
January 7......29 times
January 30....27 times
February 8....27 times
Mark it down on your calendar Lexington.
Louisville's date with the most measurable snowfall days is...
January 30......25 times
February 8......24 times
January 12......23 times
February 11....23 times
I took the coldest months of December through February and took the average of Lexington's not-so-complete 147-year climate record to arrive at an average temperature of 34.9 degrees.
Next, I took that 34.9 degrees and came up with a list of how many times each day of those months of December through February were equal to or less than the average.
I have an interesting list compiled on what may be the coldest date of winter for Lexington.
February 11.....82 times
February 8.......81 times
January 30.......79 times
January 25.......79 times
February 9.......78 times
January 15.......78 times
January 10.......78 times
December 26....78 times
For Louisville, the average was 36.2 degrees. Therefore, equal to or less than the average gave me this list...
December 26...92 times
January 24.......88 times
January 30.......87 times
January 27.......86 times
January 4.........86 times
Of course, these numbers may not reflect the same date for the coldest days on record.
For example, Lexington's coldest days ever were on January 24, 1963; January 19, 1994; February 13, 1899; and December 22, 1989.
The chart above just highlights the law of averages.
I can do the same thing with snowfall....
Lexington's date with the most measurable snowfall days during winter is....
January 7......29 times
January 30....27 times
February 8....27 times
Mark it down on your calendar Lexington.
Louisville's date with the most measurable snowfall days is...
January 30......25 times
February 8......24 times
January 12......23 times
February 11....23 times
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