Wednesday, May 30, 2012

More Rain For Louisville

As of the 1:00pm observations, showers are moving across the western Indiana landscape. This precipitation is generally weakening as it pushes ESE. Although the NWS Louisville feels most precipitation will stay just west and south of Louisville, I would not rule out a light shower or sprinkles into the afternoon hours for our area.

However, of more concern to us in the Louisville area, is the chance for more heavy rain. An update from the HPC should be forthcoming, if it has not already been released. Earlier, only 0.50 to 0.75" was forecast for the next couple of days.

Also, the SPC will have its severe weather outlook update out soon. I anticipate at least a slight risk for our area. Hail would be the primary threat along the warm front and damaging wind along the cold front. Hopefully, the fronts won't stall out to allow training over the same areas. Nevertheless, there is a chance for high-water issues during the Thursday and early Friday morning time period.

Updates soon...

MS

Tuesday, May 29, 2012

Severe Weather COVERAGE Pennsylvania

Our flooding issues here in Louisville KY are not the only serious weather events happening.
According to police dispatches, near State College, trees are down along with wires thanks in part to a line of severe thunderstorms. Also getting reports of severe weather near Dubois in Pennsylvania.



Flooding Problems in Louisville This Morning


11:50am UPDATE
The heaviest rain may stay just south of the Metro area but I'm not discounting anything just yet.
Here's a look at some of the operating rain gauges from MSD...
http://www.msdlouky.org/aboutmsd/rainfall.cfm
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10:45am UPDATE
More moderate to heavy rain moving back in...at least in the SW part of Jefferson county KY.
Louisville Int'l already has received about 3". Record rainfall for this date is 3.54" set in 1880. If the additional heavy rains materialize, we will set a record for this date.
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9:52am UPDATE
Dispatch reporting that a vehicle is floating towards a ditch with occupant inside...Tyler and Bardstown rd
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Several roads are being impacted from ongoing heavy rains this morning.

UofL at Central ave.
I-65 at Arthur St
Cane Run rd between Bells ln and Algonquin pkwy
11th and Hill
16th and Algonquin

Many cars submerged, mostly unattended...

Between 2 and 3" have accumulated this morning in a fairly short period of time, resulting in flash flooding with some water rescues in process.

Hmm, just saw a MSD truck go by my house...

In addition, there has been numerous power outages, most likely due to lightning strikes in the Valley Station/PRP areas. I have even noticed some tree limbs down from some brief wind gusts here in
Valley Station.

Things should quiet down after this last batch moves past the area.

We needed the rain but...really?

MS

Friday, May 25, 2012

Below Normal Temps Coming Soon???

According to the Climate Prediction Center, below normal temperatures are forecast for the 6-10 day period of May 31 through June 4. Above normal precipitation is also expected. Sounds like a nice retreat from this weekend's upcoming heat wave.

MS

Heat Ridge Building In

First heat wave of the year getting underway....Temperatures more like late June into July will affect the region this Memorial weekend. Indianapolis NWS office already put out a heat advisory as 'feel like' temperatures aproach 100 degrees during the weekend.

At this time, moisture transport is being pumped into the Louisville area. There is a boundary just north of the Ohio river. Therefore, a broken line of storms will try and develop mostly north of the river in Indiana. However, storms could fire as far south as the Louisville area.

The boundary is part of the heat ridge and a cold-front looking scenario, depending on which angle you're looking at. Nevertheless, not much of a cold front as temps are going to surge over the weeekend.

Stay safe out there this weekend and have fun.

MS

Monday, May 7, 2012

BIG Storms Coming Later Today...

3:30pm UPDATE
Storms are beginning to erupt to our west and northwest in a favorable environment for storm initiation. CAPE vals are high enough but I'm still awaiting for the LI's to reach -4 (right now at -3 here in Louisville). In another couple of hours, at least the chance for scattered storms will exist.

Given the atmosphere's moisture content, expect heavy downpours with any storms over your area. Analyzing the DCAPE vals or downdraft CAPE, parts of central and eastern KY could be in line for winds exceeding 50 mph in places, especially if a squall line could form. Otherwise, a broken line of storms with isolated wind gusts over 50 mph could be possible.

Since wind shear is not the main driving force, I'm expecting wet microbursts to cause most of the highest wind gusts in any storms later. Although no watches are in effect, any one of these storms that do develop could become strong in a hurry.
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12:40pm UPDATE
Updated SPC Severe Weather Probability is out...
The SPC has decided to drop most of the region out of the slight risk area for severe thunderstorms. I still think there will be some warnings along the cold front as it plows into the region. Just have to wait and see how things develop.
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First, let me give a shout out to all the nurses that use their skills and talents, assisting doctors so that we can get better. This is National Nurse's Week (May 6-12).

Now, about this weather. This past Friday night, we saw rainfall amounts ranging anywhere from 1 to nearly 3". In addition, Grayson county suffered the brunt of the severe weather that occurred. Lots of tree damage and some structures damaged as well in the Leitchfield area.

As the active weather pattern continues, there is another chance for strong/severe storms later this afternoon and evening regionwide.

Damaging wind and heavy rain along with lightning pose the greatest threats.

Currently, thunderstorm tops across the midwest are warming; therefore, expect those storms to continue to weaken late this morning and early afternoon.

However, by 3pm or so, I would expect to see enough destabilization to spark a few scattered storms. And then the action will start to accelerate rapidly. Watches should begin to go up after 3pm or so.

This is a pretty potent cold front. I would expect a squall line that could produce widespread wind damage in its wake. Have those weather radios handy and your emergency preparedness plan in place now in case things look threatening later.

MS

Friday, May 4, 2012

More Severe Weather Expected

The most recent SPC outlook still has Louisville and most of our central and northern region in a slight risk category for severe thunderstorms.

Wind damage is the most likely result according to the SPC. Yet, the NWS office here in Louisville continues to advertise more of a large hail bias.

At this very moment (1:25pm), clouds have rapidly increased with some scattered downpours developing. However, instability will wane some if the clouds continue to hang around. We need more heating if a Watch is going to be posted anytime soon.

Therefore, while SPC feels a Watch is likely, I think we need to look at the current picture and assign a 'probable' variable based on whether or not peak instability will occur during peak heating time. And that is contingent on the amount of cloud cover available.

I assign a 50 percent chance for a Watch to be issued. This would possibly include the Louisville area. I do think hail and high winds are equal threats this time around.

MS

Tuesday, May 1, 2012

More Severe Storms Possible???

3:00pm UPDATE
Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect till 10:00pm....for much of central Kentucky. Looks like a low-end thunderstorm watch as only moderate risks for severe weather exist with wind/hail parameters and low for tornadoes.

Of interest to me is a cluster of storms currently traversing northeast, now located just east of Owensboro. Storms are not severe yet but are entering a more favorable environment for strengthening. If this cluster holds together, storms could affect my location in the southern suburbs of Louisville by 4:00 pm or so.

I'm still expecting another line of storms to fire well west of the region by then. These could also prove to be strong later. We'll wait and see how the convective process unfolds.
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12:40pm UPDATE
No significant change to SPC's severe weather potential map. It does appear the highest tornado risk has shifted slightly north.

Nevertheless, they continue to advertise the possibility for strong/severe storms later this afternoon, possibly into the after-sundown period.

I'm still expecting more severe weather reports for our region than yesterday. Looking at the latest mesoscale maps, destabilization is taking place region-wide while convective initiation could occur within an area in Missouri near the Mississippi river. Once those storms start to fire, and dependent on any cap that may be in place, storms will rapidly spread eastward.

Storms may arrive later today than yesterday. Therefore, it's still too early to tell exactly where the best potential for severe weather exists. At this time, I'm placing a 60 percent chance for a Watch issuance. Looks like best locations at this time would be along and north of Ohio river. I still would like to see how convective initiation unfolds later this afternoon.

By 4pm or so, storms should be firing well west of our region. However, we should be able to pinpoint possible locations and impacts from any storms that may occur later for the region.
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Yesterday's severe weather coverage was pretty limited. Only a few severe weather reports came in...Hopkinsville and areas of northern Kentucky in Owen county and near the Cincinnati area.

What about today? I've noticed a discrepancy between our own local weather office and the Storm Prediction Center.

NWS office in Louisville indicates scattered storms for the region today with some strong wind gusts possible along with some small hail. Overall, not a widespread event. If I was interpreting this data for assigning a severe weather watch, I would rate this at about 30 percent.

However, the most recent update from the SPC has a 5 percent risk for tornadoes in the region. Damaging wind and small hail appear possible as well. Sounds like a setup we saw yesterday, except storms will be along what I call a 'periphery region'.

A ridge will be building into the area for the rest of the week with very warm temperatures. However, before said ridge builds in, along the periphery of the really warm air, aggressive storms are normally the rule.

I say there's a better chance today for severe weather than yesterday. Look for more storm reports for our region than the less-than-handful reports from yesterday.

An update from the SPC is due out before 1:00 pm. I'll be posting an update then and provide any further thoughts, if necessary.

MS

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