Friday, July 27, 2012

More Severe Weather Chances

4:55pm edt Update
Bloomington IN - some trees down, including blocking roadways. Also power lines down in some areas as well.

K-index vals a bit higher toward the Ohio river just north of Louisville. If line of storms can make it this far, the strongest storms look to stay just north of Louisville. That's a big 'if'. Instability looks to be waning across the region with LI's around -4 to -5, up from -7 to -9. CAPE vals also are becoming more stable. If storms don't make it to the river by 7pm, we'll probably stay dry for the rest of the night.
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A severe thunderstorm watch is currently in effect for just a few counties of north-central KY while most of southern IN is included in the box.

Keep up with the warnings below...
















Damaging wind is the primary threat and large hail a secondary threat.

MS

Thursday, July 26, 2012

Severe Weather Under Way....w/Updates

In Jefferson county Pennsylvania near Dubois, hard hit by severe weather. "...total disaster, trees and poles down everywhere."

This is just a sample of what several locations may be dealing with this afternoon and evening. We are in Nowcast mode. Reports of severe weather will be coming...

Jefferson county PA radio here.


Widespread Severe Weather Potential(UPDATE)


3:15pm UPDATE
Watch box is extension to first watch. The newer box goes all the way back into Missouri. Scattered cells are developing in a very warm and moist environment. Currently no warnings. However, these cells are rapidly developing. DCAPES are increasing. The newer watch holds out moderate risks for high winds and hail whereas the first watch has high risks for these. At this time, convective debris in the form of cirrus clouds and cumulus may try and inhibit rapid intensification of storms near Louisville initially. However, am expecting a line to form and push through the area between 7 and 9 pm edt. These could become severe.
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2:55pm UPDATE
In addition to Watches for Ohio and northern KY, a new Watch has just been posted that includes the Louisville area till 10pm edt. So far, no warnings with this new Watch yet. I'll post probabilities from the SPC watch box shortly....
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The most recent update from the SPC is as follows:

* Heating already in place
* Moisture readily available
* Boundaries from prior convection will aid in future development
* Winds aloft will enhance storm initiation and subsequent bowing segments

The main areas that could see widespread wind damage remain the same as previous forecast, from Cincinnati to the New England states. These areas are under a MODERATE risk for severe weather.

High-end slight risk still resides close to Louisville area and the northern quarter of Kentucky east of I-65.

Things to look out for:
)Severe Thunderstorm Watches will be forthcoming soon for several locations from northwest to southeast. Look for Watches to come out for the New England states and areas of Indiana and Ohio. Later, expect Watches for parts of Kentucky.

)Strength of winds aloft

)Where leftover boundaries interact, in order to determine possible storm development and progression

)Hard to imagine, but convective debris and miscellaneous precipitation could diminish severe potential. Right now, that looks like a small chance

)Winds in excess of 55 mph possible near Louisville while winds in excess of 70 mph near Cincinnati and northeastward.

I'm sure more updates will be forthcoming throughout the day.
Stay tuned....

MS

Wednesday, July 25, 2012

A Major Wind Damage Event Increasingly Likely(UPDATE)

2:00pm edt UPDATE
As expected, a MODERATE risk for severe thunderstorms now exists across parts of the Ohio Valley to parts of the northeast for Thursday. Also, a high end slight risk now exists for areas along the Ohio river. Main threat will be a possible derecho with widespread wind damage and power outages.
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A large swath of US real estate could be in line for severe thunderstorms on Thursday. The most recent SPC update shows the greatest concern from southern Ohio to western/northern PA into central NY. In fact, the widespread severe potential may lead to a moderate risk assessment for these areas.

The next update will be between 12:30 and 1:30 pm edt (1630z and 1730z).

I'm also looking at a SWd extension of high end slight risk for areas along the Ohio river, including the Louisville Metro.

Follow the latest SPC updates here.

MS

Thursday, July 19, 2012

Seismic Snooze: The Search For 6.0 (UPDATE)

7/20/12 164000UTC
Quick update on the tremors in the Kuril islands. Adjustments have been made and include lowering the magnitude of both tremors. Still, one was listed at 6.0, good enough to break the drought.
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7/20/2012 UPDATE
It's official. The 6.0 drought is over. The Kuril islands recorded a couple of tremors exceeding or matching 6.0. early this morning on the 20th. One was listed at 6.3.

The Kuril islands are located just off the coast of Russia near the Kamchatka peninsula and stretches all the way down to near Hokkaido in Japan. The region is very active seismically speaking.
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Well, it's been since July 8 that the world has registered a 6.0 or higher magnitude earthquake. A 5.9 was recorded on the 18th.

There have been a couple of instances this year that saw prolonged periods when strong seismic activity was lacking. From the middle of February to near the end of the month (12 days) and more recently, from May 1 to May 14, or 13 days. Today will marked the 11th day.

The search for 6.0 continues....

MS

Monday, July 16, 2012

Summer Rains

This morning, I've noticed several cumulus clouds. When a very warm and humid air mass are in place along with morning cumulus clouds, this is generally a good indication of rain/storms for that day.

These clouds are showing more vertical development as of 11:15am. That's pretty early for the summer. But guess what? According to latest radar, scattered downpours are developing around the region. NWS Louisville says this is in reference to a shortwave moving through.

I would bump probabilities up to at least 40 percent. This may even be conservative. May need to bump probs to the high end of scattered range for much of CWA.

Hoping for most us getting some rain today. Just beware, once the rain clears out, it will really feel like a steambath out there.

MS

Sunday, July 15, 2012

Large Earthquake Looming

For the period of July 8-14, I did not find any earthquakes that registered over 6.0 on the Richter scale anywhere in the world. Initially, there was a 6.0 recorded on July 8 but was later adjusted at 5.8 in the Kuril Islands region.

There was also a period in June (10-17) when no earthquakes registered over 6.0. Since June 1, the highest magnitude found was 6.3.

It's been a seismic snoozer for the past couple of months. Makes you wonder where the next big one (>6.5) will occur. Statistically, we're overdue.

MS

Saturday, July 14, 2012

Finally Some Rain...

The much advertised heavy rain event finally materialized for my location in Valley Station of Jefferson county KY. After a couple of days of mostly misses, I received nearly 1.10" early this afternoon.

Some locations have received 2-3" over the past few days. As of 6pm this evening, the Louisville Int'l airport had picked up 1.13", first time Louisville has picked up over an inch of rain in 24 hours since May 31.

Currently, rain is on the wane. However, a moist air mass will remain in place for the next several days. Therefore, expect more in the way of some storm activity each day for the rest of the week.

MS


Wednesday, July 11, 2012

Beneficial Rains For the Next Few Days


The HPC continues to paint a swath of possible 2-3" rainfall amounts for a good chunk of Kentucky over the next few days.  This may not put a huge dent in the drought department but will help.

Personally, I have a small garden and despite the lack of rainfall and blazing heat, it's held up pretty well. During the planting season in May, I collected rainfall during the month (Louisville received almost 8" for the month) and stored this for a future need. Recently, I exhausted nearly all of the stored rainwater. As of today, I'm at about 18 percent full, thanks in large part to a freak middle-of-the-night storm. If we get at least 2" over the next few days, this will increase my capacity to over 60 percent, enough to sustain me through another dry, hot stretch like what we experienced recently.

Hopefully, the western part of the state will receive a nice soaking too. Several counties are still in an extreme drought.

Keep up with the forecast rain amounts from the HPC here.

Saturday, July 7, 2012

Louisville All-Time Record High In Jeopardy

Louisville's highest temperature ever recorded has been 107 degrees, actually reached a few times during its record-keeping years.

At noon, the temperature at Louisville Int'l is already at 100 degrees. We are on pace to reach 107, if the haze, high clouds, and cumulus field do not impede the upward progression.

The hottest temperature ever for the state of Kentucky is 114 degrees at Greensburg in 1936. Bowling Green actually made a nice run at the record last month with a reading of 110 .

Keep cool...

MS

Thursday, July 5, 2012

Severe Thunderstorm Complex Eastern KY

An impressive complex of thunderstorms has erupted along the periphery of our persistent heat ridge. I'll be checking back in with updates and damage reports as these become available. Let's just say that several counties just east of Lexington to Pikeville are getting the brunt of these storms.

3:10pm
Pike and Mingo counties - trees and power lines blocking some roadways (police dispatch)
Montgomery county (Mt Sterling area) - 1300+ KU customers out of power

MS

Monday, July 2, 2012

Bowling Green and Surrounding Area Getting Slammed

After a hot and dry month in June, Bowling Green and its surrounding area is getting absolutely pummeled.
Here are some of the issues emergency personnel are dealing with:


) Large field fire near Porter Pike east of town
) Flash flooding south of town 
) Trees down in many parts of the area
) Partial roof collapse at a K-mart in Scottsville
) Water rescues in progress

MS

Kentucky Drought 2012

As of the last report (Jun 28 2012), nearly all of Kentucky fell into some sort of drought classification. Only parts of 6 counties were reporting no drought as of last week's date...

Western KY was reporting extreme drought. Paducah has only received 1.85" since April 1 2012. Yes, parts of 21 counties of western Kentucky were undergoing extreme drought.

After last week's heat ridge moved in, it will be interesting to find out how much of the state is responding to the worsening drought.

The next drought report will be due out this Thursday.

http://www.droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DM_state.htm?KY,MW

MS

More Records...Update

It seems every weather location is breaking or tying (T) some type of record. Here's a few more...

Colorado Springs CO - 101 degrees All-time high temperature record for any month (set June 26 2012)
Salt Lake City UT - trace - Driest June on record (T)
Santa Maria Apt CA - trace - Record daily maximum rainfall record (T) set June 30 2012
Louisville KY - 3 days - Most 100 degree days for the month of June (T)
Jackson KY - 104 degrees - All-time record high temperature for any month set June 29 2012
London KY - 105 degrees - All-time record high temperature for any month set June 29 2012
London (London/Corbin Apt) KY - 0.37" - Driest June on record (3rd driest month ever)
Atlanta GA - 106 degrees All-time high temperature record for any month (set June 30 2012)
Macon GA - 108 degrees All-time high temperature record for any month (T) set June 30 2012
Juneau Int'l Apt AK - 6.69" - Wettest June on record (only 2 days without measurable rainfall)

I'm sure that I'll be adding to these records for a large part of the summer.

MS

Kentucky Power Outage UPDATE 9:00am 7/2/12

After last evening's boisterous thunderstorms, numerous power outages are still left in its wake. Here's a rundown of some of the power companies and their customers.

Jefferson county - 710 (LGE)
Fayette county - 935 (KU)
Jessamine county - 228 (KU)
Woodford county - 1409 (KU)
Floyd county KY - 787 (Big Sandy RECC) 6am report

Hopefully, most power will be restored before the heat starts becoming a problem for our residents.

MS

MikJournal Midweek 11/16/2017... A Lot of Data

Good afternoon. My expected midweek post was a little bit delayed. I had an influx of data to pore over and did not have time to write ...