SATURDAY WILL BE OFF AND RUNNING WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURE WILL TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. A 30-40 KNOT LLJ AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL AID DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED ELEVATED PRECIPITATION BY WAY OF ISENTROPIC LIFT. ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS SHOULD ENTER
OUR NORTHWEST AND WESTERN FORECAST AREA BY MID MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...WITH THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. EXPECT THE ACTION TO DIMINISH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
THE SHORTWAVE GALLOPS EAST. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WARMER AIR
ALOFT WILL NOT ALLOW FOR STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHICH WILL
BRIDLE SEVERE CHANCES. A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF QPF WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM SOUTHERN INDIANA TO LOUISVILLE TO LEXINGTON...WITH
LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH EXPECTED FOR MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.
Just looking at this discussion, rain looks to be a sure bet. Here are the odds I'm looking at for Saturday at post time for the 137th running of the Kentucky Derby.
Sunshine 12:1
Rain 4:1
Above 70 2:1
Severe Weather 15:1
Thunder 8:1
Above 75 12:1
Dry 6:1
MS
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