Winter Storm Update/Summary

Although snow totals were a bit inflated for several locations by the different models, I still believe the amounts I had forecast were not too far off.

My original and only forecast for Louisville was 2-4" accumulation, although I expected that to be mostly snow with minor sleet accumulation factored into that. I picked up 0.3" sleet; therefore, I still had 2.3" snow accumulation on top of that. So, there you go. At my location in Valley Station, 2.6" should be my final tally from this storm. But, I'm still monitoring the last of the snow now in western KY that appears to be shrinking because dry air is working into the mid-levels of the atmosphere.

I'm curious to hear additional totals from the area....

Reviewing my prior posts, I did notice that the 18z run of the NAM on Saturday was the final call I chose from that model. It showed 1-3" for Louisville and between 2-3" for Lexington. However, ice was not as big of a problem here in central and north-central KY. Otherwise, the model did well, according to my interpretation of the model. I could not understand all of the many inflated snow/sleet forecasts many were obtaining from the NAM. I never saw it, unless it was the GFS or a combination of both. I don't know.

I could not find it, but I could have sworn I had another forecast for Louisville and Lexington based on the 18z run of the NAM on Saturday (03/01). It was not on my blog posts. I actually found it on another blog site at kentuckyweathercenter.com. On Saturday, I posted a comment that showed Louisville in a 2-4" range while Lexington was in a 1-3" range.

Later, my favorite short term model, the Rapid Refresh (RAP) consistently showed 2-4" for Louisville while Lexington looking at 2-5". Then, several model runs hinted at a heavy band of snow developing somewhere over central KY. Even the RAP began sniffing it out in later runs (22z run last night). However, much of that did not materialize due to persistent sleet.

At this point, the RAP did not fare as well with this storm system; especially the heavy band of snow (which was probably the sleet it 'saw' in its run) that did not quite meet expectations. However, there's still time to see if the band in western KY moves into central KY and makes up for the lack of snow accumulations. Nevertheless, the RAP was still  pretty much in line with the NAM as the ice did not meet expectations, or perhaps my interpretation and expectation.

I'm still awaiting snow totals from Lexington and Louisville...

Updates soon.

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11:00am
Louisville Int'l (official) received 3.0" preliminary amount snow/sleet total. In line with RAP and NAM
**Lexington came in at 0.4" through midnight; however, a report of 4.6" has been received at the official station since midnight...for a total of 5.0" of snow/sleet. More in line with RAP
Bowling Green has picked up 2.5" since midnight, in line with an earlier forecast I had for them at up to 3". Again, though, bust on the ice, which is always a good thing
From CoCoRaHS and other storm reports, highest totals not much more than 4". Still awaiting on perhaps any 6" amounts. I expected a few of these.
RAP model looks like it finished strong after it faltered overnight for parts of central KY and the Bluegrass, except no 6" amounts to be found yet...update later if necessary.
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5:00pm
Reports of 6" came in from near Lebanon in Marion County. That helped the RAP's case further.
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MS