Atmosphere is uncapped according to SPC. Supercells can develop at any time and quickly become dangerous. I do think discrete cells will develop ahead of the main squall. Even if we miss the supercells, the damaging wind event will be impressive later this evening. Looks like WATCH box may be extended beyond 10pm for Louisville.
1:55pm
Particularly Dangerous Situation Tornado WATCH
A rare occurence indeed. The numbers on this thing are almost off the charts. A PDS Tornado Watch is in effect for our area in Louisville and many places to our west and southwest. Some of these probabilities are very concerning to me.
Within the WATCH box:
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes >95%
One or more strong (EF-2 to EF-5) 80%
Severe hail >2" 70%
10 or more severe wind events (>58mph) 70%
Severe wind >75mph 60%
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12:15pm
Tornado WATCH for the entire viewing area
More graphics later.
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A seemingly unprecedented second day in a row with a HIGH RISK for severe storms issued by the SPC including strong tornadoes. This could be a violent day around the region.
I don't see any signs of leftover convective activity that could 'cloud' our chances for future development of severe weather. In addition, the atmosphere is already getting 'juiced up'.
The only thing that could hinder our afternoon chances for strong storms will be a rather weak cap. However, that cap will not last long. The dynamics of this system will easily overcome any atmospheric obstacles.
Last comment on this. I have heard rumors that the SPC will increase our risk area to HIGH later today. That will include Louisville.
Tornado Risk is real:
Keep an eye on our satellite views as well:
And last but not least, our RADAR views...
MS
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