Heat Index could hit 100

Not a lot of hoopla going on in the weather around here, but I think 100 degree heat index is something to chime about. As of 2pm, Louisville and Bowling Green's heat index are at 99 degrees. It's quite possible either or both locations will breach 100.

We'll see...

MS

Looking Ahead to June

While May is ending up on a rather 'heated' note, the debate on whether this summer will be a hot one continues to be a 'hot' topic. Here is a look at the 6-10 day outlook from the CPC and its 8-14 day outlook as well:

As one can see from this recently updated forecast, the first part of June appears to be above to well-above normal with respect to temperatures. Therefore, I would expect some revision to their outlook for the month of June, which was made initially on May 19.

Either the outlook needs revision or else we're going to have quite a cool down for the second half of June.

Also, hurricane season is about ready to get under way. At the moment, the way the weather patterns are positioning themselves favor a rather active tropical setup, perhaps systems forming this month and near the U.S. mainland. Stay tuned you who have vacation interests along the Gulf coast and Florida.

Have a nice day. Updates as usual as they become necessary.
MS

Beware of the Heat

Temps are expected to soar into the mid 90's today. This marks the 3rd consecutive day with temps in the 90's and the 4th 90-degree day of the month. Along with April's lone 90 degree day, we're about to hit 5 days in the 90's and we haven't 'officially' started summer yet.

Although no heat advisories are issued until heat indices approach 105 degrees, EXERCISE CAUTION out there by drinking plenty of liquids, taking periodic breaks, wearing loose, lightweight, and light-colored clothing.

On a side note, I've prepared this bit of info from NOAA that you will find worthwhile. It's about a relatively new product called the Heat Health Watch/Warning System or the HHWS. Since large urban areas are sensitive to heat early in the summer season, this meteorological tool can be tailored for each urban location. Some of the Weather Forecast Offices that have implemented this tool include Saint Louis and the Cincinnati/Dayton offices

I'm surprised the Louisville NWS Forecast Office is not on board with this yet. Maybe they are, but I do not see their name on the list.

Click here to learn more about this product.

MS

Welcome To Your Friday...

TGIF, at least I'm glad. It's been a long week. Here's your Friday 'need-to-know', that's-interesting-to-know, or 'don't-care-to-know' list of goodies:

Today is Sunscreeen Protection Day (like we really need it around here today). With the 'unofficial' kickoff to the summer season, more people are expected to be outdoors. Therefore, while engaging in whatever outdoor activity, slap a bit of sunscreen on, at least SPF 15 or higher. And yes, you can still get a 'burn' even when the sun is mostly obscured.

Also, last chance you lovebirds, this is still Date Your Mate Month.

If you have not already done so, get your blood pressure checked. It's still National Blood Pressure Month. Younger ones especially should participate (I read somewhere that high blood pressure is becoming an increasing problem for many teens).

If your blood pressure is OK, why not celebrate and have a burger while it's still National Hamburger Month. McDonalds had Big Macs at 2/$4.00 for most of the month. Me, I'd rather grill mine and put together my own 'all-beef patty special sauce lettuce cheese...

If your blood pressure is NOT ok, then try eating salad while National Salad Month is ongoing. The way I see it, if you have that salad then your rich, creamy dessert has zero calories...or almost.

Other events of interest on this date May 27:
1896 - St Louis Tornado kills 255
1931 - Piccard and Knipfer make first flight into the stratosphere...by balloon
1941 - German  battleship Bismarck sinks as British Naval and Air forces converge; 2,300 perish
1969 - Construction begins on Walt Disney World in Florida
1995 - Christopher Reeve ('Superman') becomes paralyzed after being thrown from a horse in a jumping event
1998 - Charlie Sheen is admitted to a LA hospital for drug overdose (we just can't stop harassing the guy)

Born On Dates (Budweiser not included)
Louis Gosset, Jr - 1936
Frank Thomas - 1968
Jack McBarayer - 1973

Have a good Friday and weekend.
MS

MikJournal Top Ten

We are closing in on the 10th wettest May on record here in Louisville. At just over 8", we only need a little bit more to break the 8.16" set last May in 2010.

Another significant top ten is the annual tornado fatalities list. The death toll for this year continues to climb. Well over 500 fatalities for the year may be realized by the time Joplin's count is finished. Along with at least a dozen fatalities over the last couple of days, we may vault into the top five.

Below is a list of the deadliest years attributed to tornadoes:

1925 - 794
1936 - 552
1917 - 551
1927 - 540
1896 - 537
1953 - 519
1920 - 499
1908 - 477
1909 - 404
1932 - 394

Source: Harold Brooks, research meteorologist, National Severe Storms Center, Norman, Okla. The National Weather Service began formally archiving tornado data in 1950; earlier totals are based on various historical accounts.

 MS

HIGH Risk for Severe Weather

8:00pm
Atmosphere is uncapped according to SPC. Supercells can develop at any time and quickly become dangerous. I do think discrete cells will develop ahead of the main squall. Even if we miss the supercells, the damaging wind event will be impressive later this evening. Looks like WATCH box may be extended beyond 10pm for Louisville.

1:55pm
Particularly Dangerous Situation Tornado WATCH
A rare occurence indeed. The numbers on this thing are almost off the charts. A PDS Tornado Watch is in effect for our area in Louisville and many places to our west and southwest. Some of these probabilities are very concerning to me.

Within the WATCH box:
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes >95%
One or more strong (EF-2 to EF-5) 80%
Severe hail >2" 70%
10 or more severe wind events (>58mph) 70%
Severe wind >75mph 60%
---------------------------------

12:15pm
Tornado WATCH for the entire viewing area
More graphics later.
---------------------
A seemingly unprecedented second day in a row with a HIGH RISK for severe storms issued by the SPC including strong tornadoes. This could be a violent day around the region.

I don't see any signs of leftover convective activity that could 'cloud' our chances for future development of severe weather. In addition, the atmosphere is already getting 'juiced up'.

The only thing that could hinder our afternoon chances for strong storms will be a rather weak cap. However, that cap will not last long. The dynamics of this system will easily overcome any atmospheric obstacles.

Last comment on this. I have heard rumors that the SPC will increase our risk area to HIGH later today. That will include Louisville.

Tornado Risk is real:

Keep an eye on our satellite views as well:

And last but not least, our RADAR views...


MS

***TORNADOES likely today***

The hits just keep on coming. After a violent series of storms pummeled the nation's heartland, the focus is beginning to shift east.

I'd like to share an interesting water vapor satellite image with you. This is taken from the severe weather outbreak of April 15 and 16, which produced preliminary tornado reports of 117 and 95 respectively (these dates are still ranked as the second and third most active tornado days of 2011).

Here is the latest water vapor satellite imagery of yet another impressive storm system that will be impacting our region today and overnight.

The comparisons are eerily similar. I may be 'crying wolf', but this has the earmarks for a rather active tornado day across MO, AR, KY, IN, IL, and TN.

The past couple of days have produced a little less than 40 reports of tornadoes. I expect that number to go much higher today and tonight. I just hope the fatality list will be nil this time.

Outside of the potential tornado threat will exist a damaging wind/large hail event as well. I do think some of those storms that become a squall line with bowing segments will have the capability of putting out winds of 70 mph or greater along with isolated tornadoes that could spin up anywhere along the line.

In addition, with so much rotation aloft, very large hail, greater than golf balls could pound parts of our region today and this evening.

Get those weather radios ready. Check your batteries. Stay tuned and stay safe.
MS

Severe Weather Oklahoma

At least 2 dead in El Reno...
Follow action here as long as live coverage is ongoing.

MS

"HIGH"lights For Today...

Here are some HIGHlights for today's weather...

Death toll continues to go higher in Joplin at 116. Nation's deadliest tornado since the 1953 tornado struck Flint, Michigan
Click here for the story and video footage

SPC has placed parts of 'tornado alley' in a rare 'HIGH' risk for severe weather. A major tornado outbreak is expected in parts of southern Kansas and central Oklahoma, including Norman and Oklahoma City

Preliminary survey reports from Joplin and Minneapolis tornadoes:
Minneapolis low end EF-2 with 1 fatality
Joplin high end EF-4 with 116 fatalities; both figures for Joplin could go higher

The number of high wind reports have amassed at least 300 for the 24 hour period. Also, the number of hail reports was 174. Lots of rotation with several of these storms. Expect more of the same today. However, the greatest focus will be on the OK/KS areas for an expected major severe weather outbreak.

MS

Look What We Have Done Louisville

This is one of those forgettable stats we don't like to see. Louisville's fitness levels in comparison with other populous cities is down near the bottom of 50 cities.

Read who ranks #1 and who has ranked below Louisville as the least fit 'populous' city. Click here.

Looks like I need to get out of this chair and 'do something'. Actually, I did major gardening over the weekend. I think gardening is therapeutic and good exercise.

By the way, in addition to the look at the week ahead, I'll be offering my thoughts on this year's "Pepper Garden" forecast. Be back later.

MS

Just My Thoughts: Tornado Damage

Some of the scenes from Joplin MO and Minneapolis MN are incredible. Although I haven't heard or read anything about storm surveys from these areas, just looking at the damage path and destruction caused, I would rate the tornado near Minneapolis as a strong EF-2 to low end EF-3. The tornado in Joplin looks like a strong EF-4 but could be one of those 'rare' EF-5's.

We have already seen at least 3 EF-5 tornadoes this year and at least 11 EF-4's. Loss of life has now exceeded 450 for the year. The total death toll for the year may approach 500 by the time the final tally is made in Joplin.

Nobody can fault the NWS offices or Storm Prediction Center in Norman OK for any of these fatalities. For example, a Tornado Watch was in effect for the Joplin area and the warning that was issued had a lead time of at least 20 minutes. Plenty of time for residents to take cover. Why so many deaths then?

Well, from what I've seen, more tornadoes are hitting metropolitan areas than the midwest cornfields. In other words, where there's more people, expect more casualties. And even if everyone follows the proscribed safety precautions for tornado safety, the sheer force of these tornadoes this year are negating all of those precautions.

Remember, flying debris from tornadoes is the leading cause of death in a tornadic storm. However, this year could be the year that a tornadoe's size and intensity will be a leading contributing factor.

Although this May has been relatively quiet as far as severe weather, the weather patterns are re-awakening as a series of strong to severe storms will be pummeling a large chunk of real estate for the week ahead.

More on our weather for the week ahead coming soon.
MS

Tornado Damage in Joplin MO

There has been a deadly tornado in the Joplin MO area. Extensive damage along with multiple fatalities being reported. Watching the Weather Channel and just saw video footage of a dog rescued from the debris. Yea! However, darkness is about to envelope the area. Those that are trapped, it may be a long night.

Click here for more.

MS

Minneapolis Tornado

Northern parts of the Minneapolis area have received significant damage from severe storms that have apparently produced tornadoes.

Click here for additional info.

Our weather should quiet down the rest of the evening.

MS

Severe T'Storm WATCH till 9:00pm

As for the entire WATCH box area, here is the breakdown of severe chances...
Severe Wind >58mph MODERATE (30%)
Severe Hail>1" MODERATE (30%)
Severe Wind>70mph MODERATE (30%)
Severe Combined of 6 or more occurrences (WITHIN WATCH BOX) HIGH (90%)

While this may not be a widespread severe event, any severe storms will be quite dangerous. Some winds may approach 75mph! That will substantially damage barns, peel shingles off roofs, and cause extensive tree damage and downed power poles/lines.

Here is the latest RADAR imagery and warnings:

UPDATE 4:25pm
The line of storms should have impacted Louisville by now. I have sunshine at my location. There was a brief wind gust of about 30mph along with a few sprinkles. There have been reports of winds near 70 mph in Hart county. Some damage reported near Bowling Green.

UPDATE 3:35pm edt
Line of severe thunderstorms moving northeast should impact Louisville within the next 30-45 minutes. So far, minor wind damage and some hail reports <1" have been reported. More updates coming....

Stay safe. Storm updates later.
MS

Don't Forget What Day Friday Is

I really enjoy this segment. Soon, you're probably going to think I don't care about weather anymore. I'm getting around to it. Friday will be the 20th of May.

Here is your list of 'special' Friday activities...

As part of National Bike Month, National Bike to Work Day is on Friday
Pick Strawberries Day
Be a Millionaire Day

Enjoy your Friday. I'll be posting about our weather and the return of more normal May readings by then.

MS

Did You Know??? 5/19

On this day in history, in 1992, Amendment 27 of the U.S. Constitution was ratified, limiting changes to Congressional pay.

Prior to this amendment, the last amendment ratified was in 1971, voting age set to 18 years of age.

Review your knowledge of the other amendments to the Constitution here.

Regarding the weather, looks like I'll be making some 'amendments' to my forecast made earlier this week. It appears the warmer air will be surging in sooner than I expected. Hey, that's ok with me.

MS

"or Not" 5/17

Did you know McDonald's Big Mac has been around for some 39 years? It's true. Just take a look at this story and see how one man has only missed 8 days eating a Big Mac during those 39 years. You'll never believe how many he has eaten over those years.

Just click here.

MS

Comparing Alaska and Kentucky Temps

Here's the latest from Alaska:

Fairbanks - 60 deg.
Anchorage - 49 deg.
Juneau - 51 deg.

In Louisville, last hour was 55 deg.

Here are other readings...

From the NWS Glossary...

Ok. I came across an advisory that I'm not to used to seeing: "Brisk Wind Advisory"

My initial thought was another high wind product. Come to find out, it's not that at all.

Here's the official definition: Small Craft Advisory issued by the National Weather Service for ice-covered waters.


Brisk Wind Advisory. (n.d.). National Weather Service Glossary. Retrieved May 17, 2011, from website: http://www.expertglossary.com/weather/definition/brisk-wind-advisory

Look East For Our Rain Chances

Typically, we look to our west, north, or south for much of our precipitation. Today, we'll be looking toward the east as showers try advancing westward toward the I-75 and eventually I-65 corridors.

A Low pressure system is gaining some momentum along the Atlantic coast and will shunt moisture into Kentucky. Along with the rain chances will be another cool, somewhat raw day.

Follow the movement here...click on image below for current loop


Keep an eye on those temps. Several locations along and east of I-65 will struggle to reach the mid 50's today.

MS

Looking Ahead For This Week May 16-23 2011

I'll be comparing other forecasts for your enlightenment...

NWS Louisville's 7-day says:
Highs upper 50's to near 60 with shower chances for Mon-Wed; improvement by Thursday, highs near 70; warmer for the Fri-Sun period with some unsettled weather expected with highs in the upper 70's.

Wave3 Weather 7-day says:
Highs upper 50's to low 60's Mon-Wed with shower chances; improving forecast for Thursday, highs low 70's; warmer for Fri-Sun with progressively unsettled weather by the end of the weekend, highs upper 70's to low 80's; pick of the week is Friday, dry with highs in the upper 70's.

Whas11 Weather 7-day says:
Highs upper 50's to low 60's Mon-Wed with shower/drizzle chances; improving by Thursday with low 70's; Highs near 80 for the weekend with scattered storms by Sat-Sun.

Here are a few of my thoughts...
I'm looking at the teleconnectors, PNA and NAO. Both point toward a week of below normal to near normal readings. That means don't be looking for a heat wave anytime soon. Especially for the first part of the week. Pesky Lows will continue to spin down cool air and daily shower/drizzle chances.

While things may improve post midweek, temps will still remain below normal thru Friday (albeit much warmer). Normal highs for this week should range in the 75-77 range.

Sat-Sun looks more normal but unsettled weather expected.

Look for temps to average 12-18 degrees below normal thru Wednesday, about 6-7 degrees below normal on Thursday, and 0-3 degrees below normal for Friday, and near normal for the Sat-Sun period.

For Mon-Wed, highs 57-63
Thursday -  upper 60's to near 70
Friday - near 75
Sat and Sun - 76-78

MS

Upcoming weather outlook for next week coming soon

I'll be looking ahead to next week's weather. Come back as I use the latest trends to determine where our weather will be heading. I've actually outforecasted the NWS office from 7 days out.

My high temps this week were only off by a couple of degrees. My cooldown that I predicted proved to be steeper than what the NWS was originally forecasting. However, even I missed it by nearly 10 degrees from earlier this past week. They missed it by nearly 15 degrees. These nearly cutoff lows can carry quite a bit of cool air.

MS

On This Day In History

1834 - 30" of snow falls near Newbury, VT

1862 - U.S. Congress creates the U.S. Department of Agriculture

1918 - Regular airmail service between New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington D.C. begins under the direction of the Post Office Department, which later became the U.S. Postal Service

1930 - Ellen Church becomes the first airline stewardess

1941 - Joe DiMaggio begins his historic 56-game Major League Baseball hitting streak

1969 - Emmit Smith, Pro football running back, is born

1979 - The final episode of 'Starsky and Hutch' airs on ABC

MS

Surging Storm Shelter Sales

In the wake of last month's unprecendented tornado outbreak across the deep south, a surge in storm shelter sales has resulted.

Tornado Shelters of Jackson has seen business increase by some 300 percent since the recent tornado outbreak of late April. In addition, Safe Zone Shelters, based in Raleigh, VA has seen sales nearly double.

Josh Johnson, a meteorologist with WFSA in Montgomery, AL says that storm shelters do what they're suppose to do, keeping one safe in a storm, especially a tornadic storm.

For more information about storm shelters and whether you should investigate further, click here.

MS

Do You Know What Today Is?

Yeah, everyone knows it's Friday the 13th. If you're uncomfortable with that date, and I mean really uncomfortable, you may have friggatriskaidekaphobia, or 'fear of Friday the 13th'.

Besides it being Friday the 13th, here are some other 'observances' that are taking place today:

I like this one...
Since this is the first Friday the 13th of the year, it is also Blame Someone Else Day.
If you make any mistakes or errors or forgot something, you don't have to take responsibility or blame for it; blame someone else instead. But be careful, while you're putting blame on someone else, they may be blaming you for something they did.

More 'observances'...
Frog Jumping Day has its origins dating back to Mark Twain's first short story, Jim Smiley and His Jumping Frog. Read Twain's short story or jump like a frog or jump over a frog. Have fun with it.

Leprechaun Day is just for Leprechauns. According to Irish legend, Leprechauns have a hidden pot of gold and must give you his pot of gold if you catch him. Take a few minutes to admire your own 'pot of gold.' Otherwise, go out and catch a Leprechaun.

MS

Aerial View of Mississippi river flooding

Man, I actually posted this earlier during the week. This blog has experienced some serious issues recently. So, I guess I'll submit the info again. I had a nice before and after satellite photo of the Memphis area near the Mississippi river.

I'll try and post that again soon.
Sorry.
MS

"or Not" 5/11

I'll add more interesting non-weather tidbits as the calm weather persists.

I found this article quite interesting, a historical account of 'The Great Locomotive Escape' in Yuma AZ. It's about a couple of fugitives who hijack a Southern Pacific engine in 1901. Click here.

Have you tried this feature on weather.com? It's a mosquito activity forecast. I just typed in my zip code and it produced my mosquito forecast. For today, my forecast is moderate activity, primarily between 7pm and 7am tomorrow morning. Click on this link to find out your mosquito activity forecast.

MS

Severe T'Storm WATCH

A Severe Thunderstorm WATCH is in effect for most of the viewing area until 8pm...More in a few minutes.

Keep up with the most up-to-date warnings here.

According to the SPC, large and damaging hail (up to 3" diameter) will be the primary threat. In fact, a high chance for hail exists within the WATCH box.

4:45pm
Very large hail has been reported in Bourbon and Nicholas counties in KY. Golf ball (1.75") to baseball size (2.75") chunks were common.

2:15pm
Golf ball size hail reported in Alton IL. Appears main action should stay north of Louisville and east. However, the storms just to our west have a chance to intensify. Right now, no warnings for that complex.
MS

"or Not"

Kind of an intriguing title for this post. Most of the time, I talk about weather, but every now and then, I like to keep you guys up to date on some things you may miss on your own local news or what I call the "or Not" part of my blog title.

• This is from Michigan: 12 pound Canada Goose crashes through windshield of woman's SUV while she was driving along a highway in Bay county. Woman suffers minor injuries to her face. Goose did not make it.

• Cicadas reemerging after 13 year slumber. This will affect areas in Tennessee and even parts of western Kentucky. For more about this story, see the following link here.

More news as I come across them...and more about our weather later
MS

       

The Week Ahead

It's beginning to feel a lot like summertime. Look for this to continue for a few more days. Highs will generally stay in the 80's, perhaps 87-88 degrees on a couple of those days.

Models seem to indicate rain chances here by tomorrow morning lasting for a little bit. This will be along the edge of a building ridge that will park itself over the region for a few days. Look for those summertime readings until a sharp cold front advances east.

Once the front moves in by no later than Friday, precip chances may tend to linger and temps will be noticeably cooler. Highs may struggle to reach the mid 60's. Some indications are pointing toward a series of disturbances moving down from the northwest  thanks to a nearly cutoff low in the Great Lakes region. This will keep us in a cool fetch with numerous shower chances.

That's what Spring is all about this time of year, trying to make that transition to warmer air. Since the PNA will be going positive, that will allow the cooler air to flow down from the northwest while impressive ridging builds in the west. The NAO is somewhat negative but is forecast to be nearly neutral by the end of the week. Still, the cooler air will be with us and may be with us for a few days for this upcoming weekend and the first part of next week.

MS

A New Tourist Attraction in Memphis

11:59pm UPDATE
I just read that the Mississippi river at Memphis is normally about a half-mile wide. It is now some 3 miles across! However, cool heads say there are no serious issues and the Mayor says Downtown is open.
------------------------
Ah, Graceland Mansion, party on Beale Street, and um um good barbeque are just a few of the things awaiting you in Memphis.

Oh, there is one other thing, and it's only for a limited time...
The Mighty Mississippi River.
The crest at Memphis is forecast to be just below levels seen in the 1937 flood that even affected many residents here in Louisville along the Ohio river and several miles inland.

At nearly 48 feet, many residents are being urged to leave their homes, some 1,300 homes, as the floodwaters continue their slow rise.

Eastern Collierville resident, Scott Umstead, says, "It's probably the biggest tourist attraction in Memphis." In fact, the water on Beale Street is only about a half-mile from the famous nightspots.

During the day on Thursday, May 5, it was reported from several residents of discolored water coming from the tap. The local water company assured residents that it was not from the floodwaters affecting the region, and they don't anticipate any problems from the recent flooding.

Here is a look at the May 5, 2011 level compared with a map of the same day in 2010:

2011 Map:

2010 Map:

Take a look at the first map and locate Cairo Illinois. If you look just south, notice what appears to be a huge lake. That is actually what it is right now after levees were detonated to relieve the serious situation threatening the residents in Cairo.

Here is a Google map of Cairo Illinois. No wonder the area floods so much...
http://maps.google.com/maps?hl=en&biw=1226&bih=623&q=cairo+Illinois+map&um=1&ie=UTF-8&hq=&hnear=Cairo,+IL&gl=us&ei=EeTGTa-kJsG1tweOxuy1BA&sa=X&oi=geocode_result&ct=image&resnum=1&ved=0CCgQ8gEwAA

Have a good day.
MS

What's Up North Of Us?

After nailing another forecast from a few days out, (at least the high temperature, although the precip chance of 40% needed to be there), I wish I could say the same for my derby pick, Midnight Interlude. I think he was somewhere in the bottom five. Ouch. Congrats to Velasquez and Animal Kingdom in a significant derby upset. 

Now, at this hour, what's going on just north near Terre Haute Indiana? Last hour, they had half-dollar size hail, and a rotating wall cloud was observed just south of them. The storm complex has had a history of producing tornado warnings, reports of small tornadoes, and nickel to half-dollar size hail in Illinois and now parts of Indiana.

Now that we are entering the time when daytime heating is quickly escaping, the instability producing the severe weather reports just north should begin to weaken the complex heading in our direction. But at this hour, they still look formidable and need to be watched closely. Some in our viewing area such as Orange, perhaps Dubois, and Washington counties may need weather alerts later this evening.

More updates later as needed.
MS

NWS Louisville Placing Bets On Our Derby Weather...Rain to Win

Gotta love this Area Forecast Discussion from the NWS Louisville for this Saturday.

SATURDAY WILL BE OFF AND RUNNING WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURE WILL TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. A 30-40 KNOT LLJ AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL AID DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED ELEVATED PRECIPITATION BY WAY OF ISENTROPIC LIFT. ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS SHOULD ENTER
OUR NORTHWEST AND WESTERN FORECAST AREA BY MID MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...WITH THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. EXPECT THE ACTION TO DIMINISH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
THE SHORTWAVE GALLOPS EAST. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WARMER AIR
ALOFT WILL NOT ALLOW FOR STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHICH WILL
BRIDLE SEVERE CHANCES. A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF QPF WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM SOUTHERN INDIANA TO LOUISVILLE TO LEXINGTON...WITH
LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH EXPECTED FOR MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.

Just looking at this discussion, rain looks to be a sure bet. Here are the odds I'm looking at for Saturday at post time for the 137th running of the Kentucky Derby.

Sunshine 12:1
Rain  4:1
Above 70  2:1
Severe Weather  15:1
Thunder   8:1
Above 75  12:1
Dry  6:1

MS

Trying to Nail Down Derby Forecast

I've been following what the weather will be like for Derby day by analyzing maps, ensembles, and other graphs. And I'm still coming to a consistent conclusion.

In fact, I'm now upping my percentage chance for rain in the region for Saturday. Rain will be likely on Saturday. I will go with the minimum 60 percent chance for the day. However, what about the races, including the Derby race later in the day?

Still questionable. But I would put about a 40 percent chance for that. Highs look to still be in the low to mid 70's.

Therefore, expect that 40%  rain chance by post time with a temperature around 72. Actual high temps should come in around that: 71-74.

MS

Updated Derby Forecast

The other day I made a preliminary derby day forecast calling for some rain in the region with highs 68-73 degrees.

At this time, and again subject to change, I have not altered my forecast. There is yet not much evidence to support that Saturday will be entirely dry. I do think that we will be on the side of warm air advection. So, even with clouds, we'll probably still see highs in the 70's.

The timing for precipitation when the actual race occurs is still in question. At this time, I think rain chances will increase as we go through the rest of the afternoon and overnight. Therefore, some indications tell me that the actual derby race may be dry, but precip chances are increasing as we get closer to the event.

Right now, I agree with the NWS Louisville for a 40 percent rain chance. However, I feel that high temperatures will be in the low to mid 70's, or just a few degrees cooler than what they are calling for.

Preliminary forecast II - Partly to Mostly Cloudy with the rain chance mentioned above. Highs 71-74.

MS

A Wet Start to the Month

UPDATED totals and other stats: thru 10:00am
Louisville - 3.33"
Normal for entire month of May - 4.88"
Record rainfall for month of May - 11.57"
10th All-Time Wettest May - 8.16" (set last year in 2010)

Another FUN stat:
Paducah has received nearly 19" rain since April 15. That averages out to an inch per day.
During that entire time, only 2 days elapsed without any rainfall at all.
 ---------------------------------
Here are a few rainfall totals for the month through 4:00am

Louisville - 2.70"
Valley Station - 2.33"
Paducah - 5.84"
Evansville - 4.79"
Owensboro - 3.79"
Frankfort - 3.33"

MS

Rain and Cool...

Watch the cool temps invade the region here...click below for larger image

Here is the current precip map since midnight...

As of this post, temps have dropped to 54 degrees at my location. I'm still calculating rain totals so far.
Louisville NWS at the Airport reading has recorded 1.48" for the month already.
At my location, 1.40" for the month.

MS

Derby Forecast...Preliminary

NWS Louisville calling for Pt Sunny and 76 degrees!
Ok. Let's hold our horses (uh pun intended). This forecast is still not set yet.

Our friend, the GFS, is not so optimistic. More rain in the region and cool temperatures.

I've also looked at the PNA and NAO for the week. Mostly negative for the NAO and PNA.

What could this mean for our forecast by Derby day?
This is preliminary, but indications I'm looking at are not as optimistic as the NWS Louisville's forecast.

IF it stays dry, sun is out,  and we are ahead of the storm system, south to southwest winds could push temps well into the 70's with windy conditions.

However, consensus tells me that rain will be in the area or nearby. At the very least, more clouds than sun. Still looks like we'll be on the 'warm' side of things even if rain is falling or else nearby.

I look for temps to be in the upper 60's to low 70's with a chance for rain in the region. Otherwise, mostly cloudy skies and possibly breezy.
Range: Highs 68-73.

Only preliminary...more updates later.
MS

Groundhog Day?

Do you recall the movie with Bill Murray called "Groundhog Day"? A weatherman who awakens every day only to relive the same events.

I'm beginning to think that we are in that mode as well. It seems like we wake up and it's raining. Guess what? We'll wake up tomorrow and it should be raining. Don't tell me, I'm thinking that Tuesday, uh, yeah, it's gonna be raining.

NWS Louisville calling for 2-4" by the time it's all over with sometime this week.

At my location as of this post, I've recorded 0.70". Looks like a large shield of moderate rain moving in soon. Maybe another inch by tomorrow morning.

MS