tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6360243913888242172024-03-05T21:08:26.772-05:00The MikJournal of Weather or NotMike Scherzerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17795013575104934816noreply@blogger.comBlogger1054125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-636024391388824217.post-55075764828848706252020-04-12T13:51:00.001-04:002020-04-13T01:57:16.296-04:00Tornadoes on Easter SundayThis is a worse case scenario. Tornadoes and flooded, blocked roadways making for great difficulties reaching residences affecting hard hit areas near Chattanooga TN. East ridge and Cleveland
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Yazoo City, MS had a confirmed touchdown. But, there have been 3 fatalities in Mississippi today, 2 in Lawrence county northeast of McComb and 1 in Walthall county east of McComb.
Mike Scherzerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17795013575104934816noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-636024391388824217.post-54529535667322443782020-03-29T08:18:00.003-04:002020-03-29T08:18:59.230-04:00...And the Rant Goes OnI am absolutely appalled by the 'new' readings from the official NWS reporting station, supposedly at Bluegrass Airport near Keeneland. The temperature reading is much cooler than surrounding sites like Winchester Mesonet, Frankfort NWS and Mesonet, and even the Lexington Mesonet at 1044 ft, which I have harped on before, is warmer than the 'new' readings from, again supposedly, the official siteMike Scherzerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17795013575104934816noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-636024391388824217.post-33529038991677370742020-03-19T15:18:00.001-04:002020-03-19T17:06:49.206-04:00Analogs Say Severe Weather PossibleMesoscale discussion issuance of tornado watch 80%
Actually, just issued for area while typing this.
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Off duty police officer reporting tornado on the ground near Franklin/Perry county line south of Mount Vernon, Illinois. This cannot be confirmed, but rotation has been noted by radar.
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Top 15 analogs from CIPS suggest scattered to numerous severe weather reportsMike Scherzerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17795013575104934816noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-636024391388824217.post-37760136219056972222020-03-14T11:42:00.001-04:002020-03-14T11:42:46.304-04:00Wet Week AheadThe pattern will be a wet scenario for our region. The WPC has the Kentucky region within a 2-4" range, with locally higher amounts depending on convection over the next 7 days.
Although I am no longer using the teleconnections page for winter weather, there is a familiar feature that I have seen time and again, a negative PNA and EPO. That combination has been a consistent predictor of wet Mike Scherzerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17795013575104934816noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-636024391388824217.post-11717245373590599512020-03-12T15:13:00.001-04:002020-03-12T20:05:09.885-04:00Severe Weather Updates 03/12/2020Check this page for updates...
3:10 p.m. edt...no warnings in Kentucky
However, there are power outages in Owensboro, possibly related to lightning? No significant wind reports yet.
Rain-wrapped tornado reported earlier in Edmonson county. No damage reported
Near Woodbury, 66 mph gust at Mesonet station
Rainfall becoming more of an issue...Many flood advisories and warnings being issued acrossMike Scherzerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17795013575104934816noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-636024391388824217.post-75531696175853006622020-03-11T10:42:00.000-04:002020-03-11T10:47:52.812-04:00The Waning Winterless WinterIs is time to stick a fork yet into this abysmal winter season? Well, technically, some in our region still could receive a little bit more snowfall before Spring begins in earnest.
However, as of March 10, 2020, when we look at the snowfall totals, some numbers might indicate a decent winter for some. But, we have to look at the averages for each location.
Although 15.0" sounds like a decent Mike Scherzerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17795013575104934816noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-636024391388824217.post-33032074025918452482020-03-06T11:15:00.000-05:002020-03-06T11:15:13.153-05:00Nashville Area Tornadoes for March 2-3, 2020After a thorough review of the damage by the National Weather Service (more information may still be forthcoming), spanning an area from just west of Nashville east to the Cookeville region, one of the strongest tornadoes I have seen in a while affecting a populated region did indeed produce EF-3 to EF-4 damage along its path.
At least 2 dozen people died with hundreds injured. This was a night Mike Scherzerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17795013575104934816noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-636024391388824217.post-61905658019551997822020-02-24T07:13:00.001-05:002020-02-24T07:13:48.356-05:00Lexington BG Airport Thermometer...What's This?First, let me be the first to say to the naysayers out there who have whined and complained about Lexington's Bluegrass Airport thermometer, that it runs hotter than other areas, it's messing up the climatological record for the city of Lexington and the state of Kentucky for that matter, oh my, well it's time to put it to rest.
I don't want to hear anymore complaining, whining, crying, bashing,Mike Scherzerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17795013575104934816noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-636024391388824217.post-50804420250741458462020-02-21T12:31:00.002-05:002020-02-21T12:31:40.686-05:00Spring Cleaning (the blog)I think it's about time for me to update the blog, maybe one day the entire blog page itself. For now, you may notice a few changes already. In my Miks Mix sidebar, for example, there are no listings or sites that I recommend. They either have relocated a web page or a site is having problems loading successfully. In addition, I have other outdated links I need to remove. Of course, some sites Mike Scherzerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17795013575104934816noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-636024391388824217.post-38076858165440932772020-02-10T11:19:00.000-05:002020-02-10T11:19:25.122-05:00MikJournal Weekly Outlook (Feb 10 - 16, 2020)A review of last week indeed proved accurate with above normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. The average precipitation of 2-4" was pretty good. Still, areas of southeast Kentucky got in on nearly 6" of rainfall. But, other areas like my place southwest of Louisville only saw about 0.50". Snowfall was even reported on a region wide basis. Still, if you want to count a general 1-3" Mike Scherzerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17795013575104934816noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-636024391388824217.post-29226420539909385912020-02-09T06:34:00.002-05:002020-02-09T06:34:32.356-05:00MikJournal MomentAn exhaustive, yet incomplete summary of this most recent storm event. Although not much of a wind maker here locally, I was surprised by the wind gusts, with many non-thunderstorm related reports. And of course, the heavy rain reports along with some decent snow amounts.
Here you go from the WPC's Storm Summary page...
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html
Mike Scherzerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17795013575104934816noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-636024391388824217.post-25887402700849248332020-02-06T10:55:00.000-05:002020-02-06T13:47:22.873-05:00Heavy Rainfall Update...
picture courtesy of WYMT.com
Mudslide in Leslie county on US421. Nobody other than the driver was on the bus, and the driver was not injured.
Knoxville now at 5.43" for this event, surpassing 12" for the year already.
Our friends in Knox, Bell, Harlan, and Letcher counties are also reporting serious flooding and dangerous mudslides.
In Claiborne county in Tennessee, just across from Mike Scherzerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17795013575104934816noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-636024391388824217.post-50680318010457204862020-02-03T07:45:00.002-05:002020-02-03T07:45:29.306-05:00MikJournal Weekly Outlook for 02/03/2020 - 02/09/2020Welcome to a NEW segment for the MikJournal. Each Monday, I'll post an outlook for the rest of the week. This is not a detailed forecast, but it is more of a synopsis about what to expect. I'll look at teleconnection patterns, at least for a little while longer, the Euro 850 mb temperatures for the week ahead, WPC Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF), Climate Prediction Center for temps andMike Scherzerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17795013575104934816noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-636024391388824217.post-78914620296272551122020-02-01T11:58:00.001-05:002020-02-01T11:58:23.948-05:00Another Top Ten Finish...Lexington recorded its 2nd consecutive Top Ten Warmest entry by tying for 7th warmest January on record. December 2019 finished 8th warmest December.
Louisville barely missed Top Ten Warmest status last month, but came back strong in January to finish 7th Warmest for the month.
Other regional locations that finished January in Top Ten fashion include Paducah (9th), Jackson (6th), and London (Mike Scherzerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17795013575104934816noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-636024391388824217.post-584515597993771172020-01-30T12:28:00.001-05:002020-01-30T12:28:51.372-05:00January 2020 Final ProjectionsI am now projecting a lock that Louisville and Lexington will record a top ten warmest January. For Lexington, this is the 2nd consecutive month with top ten warmest recognition.
Overall, this has been a blowtorch winter. Additionally, February looks to start out with above normal temperatures. With teleconnections strongly in favor of normal to above normal temperatures, February just might Mike Scherzerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17795013575104934816noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-636024391388824217.post-78359142246554028932020-01-28T15:40:00.002-05:002020-01-28T15:40:58.889-05:00MikJournal Moment 01/28/2020Major earthquake off shore of Cuba. Shipping lanes exist in that region, not too far from cruise ship pathways.
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Teleconnections still not favorable. NAO shows some modest potential for short term blocking. But, any cold shots will last just for 1-3 days, then warm up again. Overall, a near normal to above normal pattern exists for the next several days.
Mike Scherzerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17795013575104934816noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-636024391388824217.post-88066215976531649022020-01-27T08:13:00.001-05:002020-01-27T08:13:26.132-05:00MikJournal Monday 01/27/2020Good morning to your last Monday of January 2020. Wow! Can you believe it? It's almost February!
If any of you have noticed, especially if you have read the MikJournal before, I love weather history. Today, let's hop in the Way Back machine, shall we Sherman, and travel to January 27, 1998 in the Appalachian mountains.
A heavy, wet snow event collapsed structures, stranded motorists, and causedMike Scherzerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17795013575104934816noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-636024391388824217.post-25323078665287293702020-01-11T10:10:00.000-05:002020-01-11T22:38:14.479-05:00Tornadoes, Strong Winds TodayWith still more time left, some 445 wind damage reports have been received so far today.
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According to Madison county scanner, report of a mobile home blown over with occupants inside
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Tree on house trapping residents in Jefferson county.
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Already this morning a report of a rain-wrapped tornado in western Kentucky near Cadiz. Damage Mike Scherzerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17795013575104934816noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-636024391388824217.post-73300697199343073172019-12-30T14:43:00.001-05:002019-12-30T14:43:16.345-05:00MikJournal Monday 12/30/2019Welcome to the last Monday of the year. Likely this will be the last post of the year. But, I do need to update all the totals on the side of the blog.
Many areas received a nice soaking yesterday, from 1-3", pretty much on target. It's amazing how these same models, though, cannot even come close to forecasting snow totals.
I recorded 1.56" at my place in Valley Station, giving me an annual Mike Scherzerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17795013575104934816noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-636024391388824217.post-71759179868670641752019-12-25T07:59:00.000-05:002019-12-25T07:59:34.294-05:00Top Ten Warmest December?Projection Time....
With an onslaught of very mild air statewide for the next 4-5 days, average temperatures near 20 degrees above normal, this may put locations like Lexington and Louisville in the top ten warmest Decembers ever.
Minimum average of 41.8 for Lexington needed
Minimum average of 44.8 for Louisville needed
Minimum average of 45.3 for Bowling Green needed
Minimum average of 41.8 Mike Scherzerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17795013575104934816noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-636024391388824217.post-39703257837411453302019-12-20T15:53:00.000-05:002019-12-20T15:53:17.116-05:00MikJournal Moments 12/20/2019The year is winding down. It has been another wet year for many in our region. If you look to the side of the blog, you will notice the annual precipitation. Notice how many have or are close to top ten numbers.
It appears the holiday week will feature above normal temperatures. I did some record retrieving and found that the highest temperature for December 25 at Lexington was 70 degrees in Mike Scherzerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17795013575104934816noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-636024391388824217.post-72908341841142696292019-12-09T08:55:00.000-05:002019-12-09T08:55:32.852-05:00MikJournal Monday12/09/2019...Winter Threat?Good morning. Wow. Wait a sec. What day is it? I have 55 degrees at the moment. Normal high and low temperature for this date is 48 and 32 respectively here in Louisville. Looks like another solid day above normal. In fact, the month of December has averaged at least 3 degrees above normal for the month, a far cry from what some were forecasting for this first part of December.
However, we do Mike Scherzerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17795013575104934816noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-636024391388824217.post-53214430107854834942019-12-03T14:11:00.000-05:002019-12-05T12:01:25.814-05:00MikJournal Moment 12/03/2019Fun Stats....
I took the coldest months of December through February and took the average of Lexington's not-so-complete 147-year climate record to arrive at an average temperature of 34.9 degrees.
Next, I took that 34.9 degrees and came up with a list of how many times each day of those months of December through February were equal to or less than the average.
I have an interesting list Mike Scherzerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17795013575104934816noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-636024391388824217.post-45400695118970925202019-11-25T09:56:00.000-05:002019-11-25T09:56:11.535-05:00MikJournal Moment 11/25/2019
Knoxville Downtown Airport (KDKX)
Lat: 35.97°NLon: 83.87°WElev: 827ft.
Freezing Fog
-13°F
-25°C
HumidityNA
Wind SpeedCalm
Barometer29.96 in
DewpointN/A
Visibility0.15 mi
Last update25 Nov 9:15 am EST
I could not help but take a picture of this from the Morristown TN NWS office for Knoxville this morning.
Now, that would be a record, IF it wasMike Scherzerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17795013575104934816noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-636024391388824217.post-62479697874945711712019-11-25T09:38:00.004-05:002019-11-25T09:46:36.915-05:00MikJournal Monday Prediction for 12/02/2019Trying something experimental with a forecast out 7 days from today. I like the Euro model, but I do have to factor in an either/or scenario. Weather systems don't always follow what we think we'll happen.
For next Monday or Tuesday the 3rd from Louisville to Lexington, temperatures will range from the mid to upper 30's with snow showers possible. NOT expecting much accumulation at all. Lows Mike Scherzerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17795013575104934816noreply@blogger.com0