MikJournal 2015/2016 Winter Overview and December Prediction

The time has arrived. Another winter season is upon us, and people are wondering, some cautious but others excited, about the upcoming winter prospects as El Nino is expected to throw the winter season out of sorts.

Perhaps you have noticed the title of this post does not include the words weather and  forecast. When one tries to explain how the winter season is going to unfold over a period of at least 3 months, that's not called weather in the fullest sense and should not be called a forecast.

According to the American Meteorological Society glossary of meteorology, "weather consists of the short-term (minutes to days) variations in the atmosphere."

Therefore, I find it amusing when meteorologists, who study the intricacies of the atmosphere, how it interacts with our oceans and lands, so as to have a complete understanding in order to predict accurately it's effects thus a weather forecast covering a period of "minutes to days", attempt to 'forecast' a 3-month range that is far beyond their usual and preferred limit of perhaps several days. Is it not difficult enough to render an accurate forecast over a period of a few days? So, let's try months too?

Surely the many and often varied winter 'forecasts' should be for entertainment purposes only. But, some of these people spend inordinate amounts of time, studying how the different storm tracks of the past relate to current atmospheric behavior so as to predict a future outcome. Why, some even go so far as to give us a 'forecast' snowfall range for the 3-month period, yes like a winter weather forecast of "minutes to days", by the end of February! Man, they're serious. Come on, really? Forecasters dare not levy any potential snow totals for the short term until we get closer to an actual event. But, let's wing it at several weeks out. Right.

So, no, this is not a 2015/2016 winter weather forecast that includes snow amounts for the end of February. I call it a prediction, and I am only providing one month's worth of data at a time. However, I will provide a brief overview about my expectations for the entire winter regionally. In addition, beginning in January, I will be posting a random selection of geographic locations nationwide in order to keep track of El Nino's manipulation, if any, on these areas and help define what that may mean for our region as we progress deeper into the winter.

Regional Winter Overview

Now, let's get to it. First, I expect that our region will be milder than the previous two winters (2013/14 and 2014/15). Why do I say this? Well, take Louisville as an example in our region. It is no mystery that Louisville's official reporting station is in the midst of a heat island. That being said, during the past two winters, Louisville averaged at least 3 degrees below normal for each winter. In fact, February 2015 was a very cold month when it came to averages, some 11 degrees below normal. That's unheard of in comparison to other climatological records. That was the 7th coldest February on record.

I think you would expect locations outside Louisville to be even colder. So, I do not think that my expectations for a milder winter compared to the two previous winters is a stretch of my imagination. Technically, we here in Louisville can be below normal for the winter AND still be milder than the last two.

Precipitation should come out about the same or wetter than the previous two winters. I do predict the farther south you live, the wetter. Louisville averaged just below normal for the two winters combined. But, we should feel the effects of an El Nino-enhanced, active southern jet stream as far north as Louisville but more likely south.

December Prediction

I do not expect any Arctic outbreaks for this month. But, just like November, a modified Arctic air mass may take up residency for a brief period of time. This will be tempered by some rather balmy weather as well.

The second week of December (8th-14th). If there is going to be a 'best case scenario' for measurable snowfall, it will be sometime during this week or toward the end of that week.

During my earlier research, it appeared that Christmas week would be colder. But, I have backed off of that thinking now.

The last week of the month appears to be rather stormy for parts of the country. Our region may be affected, especially southern Kentucky. But, I would like to give a heads up to our entire region as a vigorous storm system may lead to severe weather followed my much colder weather heading into January.

Overall, December looks like normal to above normal temperatures and near normal precipitation.

My January prediction will come out the last week of December (28th through the 31st).

MS