Good morning. The first week of December is coming to an end. Our region has experienced 1-2 degrees above average temperatures and near average precipitation.
The rest of this week features a warmer than average scenario resembling late October or early November readings. That translates to temperatures running at least 10-15 degrees above average!
However, by the end of the week, signs of change will already be looming. A shock to the senses with a heavy dose of meteorological reality is expected to overcome this sweet pattern.
The gatekeeper of the Arctic, the Arctic Oscillation teleconnection, is expected to trend toward neutral and slightly negative after a tremendous run of positive readings. What does that mean for us?
Well, recently, some in our region dealt with low temperatures in the teens. This was modified Arctic air, since the AO was still neutral to slightly positive during that time. In addition, some saw their first snowflakes of the season.
With a neutral to slightly negative AO, a taste of true Arctic air will make a run at the United States. How far south that air mass can make it remains to be seen.
At the very least, temperatures returning to the 30's for highs may be possible. But, I think the coldest air will not quite reach us yet. Ahead of a another storm system, temperatures should recover enough to preclude any significant snowfall for most of us. But, I am still hoping that additional data may help enhance our chances while the air could still be cold enough to support snow. Hopefully no ice.
According to my prediction for the rest of the month as noted in my December Prediction, near average to above average temperatures is still expected. But, as more data comes in this week, the AO index could help me fine tune this outlook.
A popular study has linked an above average Eurasian October snowfall will lead to a decisively negative AO winter, which means more shots of cold air for us and the Eastern United States.
Interpreting the study along with their current data, the second half of December would be below average in terms of temperatures.
But the models, at least some, are not in agreement with this happening in December, perhaps because of El Nino's influence.
Right now, I am in that boat. But, if I'm wrong, someone throw me a line and pull me into the other boat please.
MS
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