Looking Ahead to November...Important Month for Identifying Upcoming Winter Trends

Many meteorologists are already putting out winter forecasts. Some are slated to release their forecasts later this month. Even some released forecasts in the summer, which is a little too early in my opinion. I've always liked to tinker with a winter forecast but already know ahead of time that nobody can accurately predict exactly what's going to take place any winter season.

And this season especially. El Nino figures to play a role in the upcoming winter. Already a strong El Nino, it should remain so until at least early 2016.

I have been poring over last month's data for any sign of El Nino's upcoming impacts. The hints that I have been looking at include what's going on out west, especially.

Southern California has just come away from a record setting month of October for very warm temperatures. PNA values for the month of October were very high, highest I have seen in a few years.

I will be looking at this feature for the months of November through January. PNA values may stay elevated. Precipitation is another part of the PNA positive equation. Parts of southern California have already exceeded their monthly average for November, which is a good sign of PNA's positive pattern influence and El Nino's hand.

Looking at the tropics, California did not experience any direct impact from any tropical systems in October. Remnants of Patricia affected Mexico and curved eastward toward the Gulf of Mexico. Therefore, no direct signal can be attributed to El Nino.

As far as Washington state, I like looking at how El Nino is 'supposed' to affect these areas. Drier than average and warmer than average is the ongoing theme to look for during the months of October through December.

Yes, Forks WA did come in below average for precipitation. However, a strong push of moisture helped erase a rather large deficit as we ended the month of October. Other locations in the Seattle NWS coverage area actually finished the month above normal. All locations did finish well above normal for temperature readings. Therefore, a little bit of a mixed signal has 'muddied' the waters as to how or if El Nino is affecting this region.

Boulder CO did not experience any snow storm greater than 12" for October. In fact, no measurable snow was recorded during the month, which is not unusual. But, during some El Nino events, generous snowfall has been a nice predictor as to how El Nino may affect the upcoming winter. So, again, not much of a signal yet.

I am still awaiting to see additional hints about El Nino for the month of November. I will be sharing those with you in a future post. But for right now, I am not expecting El Nino to affect our winter right away. In fact we may not see any impacts until later in the winter, like February. Does this mean February will be a dry and warm month? Or severe weather? How about a big snow event? All of these may be possible for that month.

Otherwise, the data so far is suggesting to expect things to go as planned without El Nino's effects for the first part of the winter.

I will be updating the trends each month for the rest of the winter. Therefore, instead of putting out a seasonal forecast this year since analogs are not going to be helpful anyway, I will be focusing on how the winter is progressing each month versus the El Nino Handprint for U.S. winter.

MS