MikJournal Monday 11/16/15

Looking at last week's data, the CPC had much of the east in an above normal temperature and precipitation regime coming into this week. If the current forecast holds through Wednesday, kudos to them.

The latest CPC 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks are painting a much different pattern change for the period of November 21-29. Below normal temperatures look to dominate the bulk of this time period.

In fact GEFS analogs show temperatures from 2-6 degrees below normal, which could mean for Louisville that 55-58 degree normal high temperatures may be replaced by temperatures struggling to break 50 degrees during that time.

And there are indications that December will start out even colder. I'm especially interested in this as I am already working on my winter forecast for December.

Remember, I will not be posting a December-February winter forecast like others. Honestly, I have not been impressed by many forecasts in the past, especially my own. In addition, El Nino may make this winter forecast even more challenging for forecasters. But, I will suggest a general theme for what I expect for the overall meteorological winter of December through February, such as drier and warmer or wetter and colder than the past year or two.

I will be presenting 3 monthly forecasts for the winter months with each forecast coming out about a week before the next winter month begins. For example, my December forecast will come out Thanksgiving week. Then. I will be posting a running total and comparing these with my previously mentioned overall expectations for the entire winter.

I believe this will provide the reader with a better understanding of the most up-to-date trends as to how the winter is unfolding, and it holds someone like me more accountable than someone who takes a color shading in November and pastes it for some region what's going to happen in February. People tend to forget what someone said was going to happen in February when being announced in November thus less accountability, I guess.

So, there you have it. By the way, I noticed many locations in Kentucky have seen their temperatures rise overnight. Mine has held steady for a few hours now, right at 34 degrees. Clouds are blocking the sun and have replaced the mostly clear skies from last night. Therefore, not much rise yet.

One more. Snowmass, Colorado, just west of Aspen, at an elevation of 9800 feet or so, is expecting a nice thumping of snow. Great for skiers. Isn't that a great name for a ski resort, Snowmass?

MS