MikJournal Monday 11/09/15

Well, I took a little time off last week by visiting Charleston SC last weekend. A very old community and a lot of civil war history. I was impressed by the size of some of those cannons, weighing in at over 5,000 pounds. In fact, recently, I read about three cannons from the Civil War era that were discovered and raised out of the Pee Dee river near Florence that came in at a whopping 15,000 pounds each. Those are currently being restored in North Charleston. So, I did not get a chance to see those behemoths when visiting there.

About a month ago, the region experienced heavy rainfall in excess of 24" in places over a 4 day span. Mount Pleasant was where I ate lunch. But, I could not tell that any flooding had affected these areas. In Charleston near the Battery, only a remnant of the flooding remained with a little bit of caked mud along the street. But the old stately buildings and restored residences did not appear damaged by the recent weather.

Now, I know it's Monday. Often I am confused anyway but today, I feel more confused than usual. Let me explain.

The Climate Prediction Center offers medium and longer range outlooks for temperatures and precipitation. However, they also present teleconnection indices from GFS or ensembles. These teleconnections are the NAO, AO, PNA, just to name a few. You may or may not understand these terms. But, that's okay. They should.

The outlook for the 6-10 day and 8-14 day periods calls for above average temperatures in areas where some medium range forecasts suggest a blast of colder air spilling into their region like the northern Great Plains. Some drama going on there.

But wait. A primary teleconnection index I follow this time of year is the AO, or the Arctic Oscillation. Readings have been very positive, which basically means the coldest air stays up there. However, the forecast from GFS and ensembles show a decline toward neutral or even slightly negative over the next 10 days at least.

Typically, a negative AO should have a colder impact upon the eastern parts of the U.S. this time of year and especially into the winter.

Yet, through the 22nd of this month, mostly above average temperatures are expected. I will be following this closely for adjustments. Right now, bulk of coldest air is supposed to remain west, near parts of the Intermountain west and Great Basin.

Nevertheless, colder air is building in the Arctic regions and is poised to dive southward barring any significant blocking that may deflect the coldest air away from our region, which I guess is possible. But that's one big gorilla lurking just north.

MS