Looking Ahead to the Second Half of the Month

It's only the 12th, and I am already looking ahead to the rest of the month.

By the way, last night's winds were not too bad at my place. Earlier model runs had painted a swipe of very high winds trying to reach the surface. But additional runs sniffed out a pre-frontal band of precipitation, which was able to help form a predicted inversion or area of stable air, limiting the highest winds from reaching the surface. Good call.

At least for the next 10 days, I still do not see any Arctic outbreak happening here. However, these powerhouse low pressure systems near Alaska are going to tap into some Arctic air and transport that south. But that air typically modifies before it reaches us. So, for Louisville and surrounding areas, temperatures between 38 and 43 is as low as I see our daytime readings getting, say during the 20-24th time frame. Overnight lows in the low 20's are still possible.

Could there be a few flurries during that time? I am not discounting that idea. But, no decent shot of ground-whitening snowfall yet.

Arctic Oscillation, while trending downward, is still not expected to be that weak, as pressure readings, especially from those Alaskan systems, will transport enough wind energy up there to keep the belt of Polar winds confined to that region for the most part. But, that just means more cold air in reserve just waiting to spill down into our neck of the woods.

Additionally, PNA values continue to show a negative bias, which typically leads to a trough type pattern for the Northwest over this same time period. That means for our weather, we can expect some zonal flow off the Pacific or a trough west, ridge east type of pattern. In other words, near normal temperatures with episodes of relatively warm air followed by shots of colder air.

Finally, the CPC is still holding fast to an above average temperature scheme for much of the east through the 25th. Of course, that does not mean everyday, we will have above normal readings.

MS