STORMCON Index

Severe weather with summer foliage is now over. Yes, some trees are still carrying much foliage. However, most trees are thinning enough that strong to severe thunderstorms affect them a little bit differently.

During late spring and summer, my SQUALCON Index made concessions for wind damage to trees and limbs even when thunderstorm or non-thunderstorm winds would not reach severe criteria greater than 58 mph.

The STORMCON Index is a similar program I am using to assess the possibility of wind damage during the months of November through April. I will rank the numbers similarly to the SPC's relatively new convective outlook definitions applying to the risk of severe thunderstorms.  Yet, it's just a little bit different.

For example, Arkansas is within a broad shading of 'slight' risk for severe weather. However, I have an area of western and central Arkansas in a high-end enhanced risk for wind damage.

For Kentucky, primarily along and west of Interstate 75, I have this region assigned to a slight risk, whereas SPC has slight risk confined to western Kentucky. I base my numbers on the potential for tree and limb damage resulting from strong to severe thunderstorm or non-thunderstorm winds.

MS