Looking at radar returns this morning, I'm forecasting 2-3" of virga for many locations in our region. That's the only thing guaranteed.
Once the column saturates, precipitation will finally reach the ground. Could start as early as 10:00am in Louisville, most likely by 12:00pm. However, what type of precipitation falls is still 'up in the air'.
Therefore, a bag of wintry goodies will be doled out just in time for party festivities.
I'd like to take a look at the 12z NAM coming out by 9:30 this morning. I'll be more interested in looking at those levels in the atmosphere where the 'goodies' will be coming from.
However, the latest HRRR run shows 12pm 925 mb temps of 1-3 degrees C, should support a cold rain. 850mb levels at 12pm shows the freezing line right through Louisville (-2 to 2 degrees C), supporting snow, rain, and sleet.
This is not an efficient precipitation producer. QPF amounts fairly light. However, anytime a mixed bag that includes a chance of ice is included, travelers will be and should be wary.
More later...
MS
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