MrHP Final Call for Snowfall 12/25/2012

This is such a complicated forecast. I've used my blended MrHP forecast, a Mid-range Highest Probability forecast tool. Unfortunately, it relies primarily on model runs, which are having a hard time with this storm.

In addition, I'm presenting other factors that the models may not be looking at, such as dynamic cooling, dry slotting, and additional thermal profiles besides the proverbial '540' or freezing line.

NWS offices to the north and west are quite robust in snow totals. Totals over 12" are expected in some areas.

NWS office Louisville not expecting much snow at all for Louisville, generally an inch or less.

How to forecast totals with such large spreads over a short distance? They have the tools. Often, though, it takes skill. The NWS has been known to make skilled decisions in their forecasts. They just don't look at the models. They use blends often, but sometimes it just comes down to one's forecasting skill.

Here are a few selected cities...1) NWS says, 2)MrHP says, 3) Mike S says
Evansville IN : 8-14", 7-9", 6-9"
Paducah KY : 7-11", 6-9", 5-9"
Indianapolis IN: 8-14", 6-10", 7-11"
Cincinnati OH : 1-2", 4-6", 2-4"
Louisville KY : <=1", 1-3", 1-3"

* NWS forecasts as of 4:30pm est.

MS