Thursday, December 27, 2012

Grading MrHP, NWS, and Myself for Winter Storm I

Here are the 'official' snow amounts at the various locations I chose. These amounts will be compared with the forecast solutions presented at least 12 hours in advance for most locations. Then a grade is assigned.

Louisville:    0.0"
Indianapolis: 7.5"
Cincinnati: 2.9"
Evansville: 7.7"
Paducah: 4.6"

Compare these totals to the Final Call for Snowfall forecast made before 4:30pm 12/25/2012

NWS
Louisville <=1"      100
Indianapolis 8-14"   90
Cincinnati 1-2"        90
Evansville 8-14"      90
Paducah 7-11"        85
GRADE                91    A-

MrHP
Louisville 1-3"         50
Indianapolis 6-10" 100
Cincinnati 4-6"        80
Evansville 7-9"      100
Paducah 6-9"          85
GRADE                83    B-

MikeS
Louisville 1-3"         50
Indianapolis 7-11" 100
Cincinnati 2-4"      100
Evansville 6-9"      100
Paducah 5-9"          95
GRADE                89     B+

Next storm system is looming. May need to put out amounts for this one as well. Not expected to be as significant, though. However, NWS Louisville AFD (KLMK271113) says, "a system worth watching and has potential to surprise with snowfall, especially very early Saturday morning across the north."

Time to look at the trends...

MS

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