Despite a prevalent eastward shift, the NAM is not painting a 'colder' solution as should be the case. In fact, according to my ground zero points in my last post, the heaviest snow line appears to have shifted north and west based on the NAM's 12z run and its 850mb forecast. Sounds like the NAM is just as confused as the rest of us.
That's why we can't go by one model run and make a forecast. However, it is about high time for these models, especially the reliable NAM, to start making sense of this storm. We're getting within that 24 hour window, where advisories and warnings should be coming out. This one will give forecasters a fit, for sure.
More later.
MS
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