Model Wars - For One Week Away?

In this post, I'll be focusing on the time period about a week away. Now, I'm not going to get too technical because I only like to compare these models (Op GFS, GEM-GLB, and ECMWF) at about 5-6 days out. That means I should be using some maps by this time tomorrow.

However, so far, I'm not that impressed by the presentations/solutions offered by these models. One thing, though, ALL seem to be in agreement that a decent shot of cold air will invade the region by about this time next week. Other than squally snowshowers, perhaps persistent at times, I don't foresee anything substantial.

Now, that doesn't mean we won't see accumulations. Some of the heavier squalls could put down up to 2" if enough squalls affect the same area. As in the case of the previous storm system, where these heavier squalls will set up, is not likely predictable at this time. Even 24 hours out, this is hard to do. As the time approaches, nowcasting will be the best way to determine possible amounts.

Of course, I'm hoping to see something that could point toward a snowier solution, especially since it appears that the cold air will be available. While there are many speculations about what could happen, I'm not biting until I see all of the relevant data to make a sensible forecast. Relevant data include satellite imagery, teleconnection forecasts, CONSISTENT model output, upper air pattern shifts, etc...

The overall scenario continues to lend weight toward a warmer than normal month, despite the cold air invasion, which is why they call this thing winter. We should expect wave after wave of progressively colder air with snowier episodes. But right now, the way I see it, presently, it's not happening.

Historically, the middle of January does offer the best opportunities for cold and snow. So, let's see what this next storm system has to offer. But right now, don't get too excited, as we have been 'torched' time and again thus far. I'm sure all of us would even like to get in on even a couple of inches at once. We'll see.

MS