Flash Flood Watch in effect for 2-4" rain
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Quite a bit to get to, so let's get started.
In a previous post, I mentioned Louisville's 124-year long record for Friday April 22 rainfall of 3.08". Here is a map from the HPC that shows the possible rain amounts from now thru Saturday morning.
As of now, we are included in the 3"+ category. Will it all occur on Friday, though? Tough to say. Regardless, even if the daily record for rainfall does not happen, these amounts will only prolong regional flooding issues, especially along the Ohio river and other smaller rivers in southern Indiana.
By the way, here is a list of the TOP TEN WETTEST APRILS for Louisville.
1 1970 - 11.10"
2 1966 - 9.56"
3 1872 - 9.08"
4 1912 - 8.60"
5 1972 - 8.48"
6 1893 - 7.69"
7 1892 - 7.50"
8 1979 - 7.32"
9 1887 - 7.31"
10 1940 - 7.21"
As of this post, we are at 6.24". With heavy rain expected this weekend and more on tap for next week, we could very well challenge the all-time record rainfall for April. We should at least post in the top 3 wettest Aprils.
I'll be posting the current April rainfall along with other records in jeopardy for the rest of the month just below my Title Page.
In addition, Lexington's all-time record rainfall for April is 9.30". Currently they are around 7.50". Looks like a done deal for them, as they may eclipse the record this weekend.
Next, the severe threat is beginning to loom large once again for our region. The SPC has shifted its hatch marks closer to Louisville now. Take a look.
Many of these areas will quite likely be upgraded to a MODERATE risk, or at least a 45% probability for significant severe weather.
Here is what they are saying:
MODEST INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE BY
MID AFTERNOON FOR ROBUST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MO WITHIN ASTRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS...INCLUDING THE
POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD DOWNSTREAM INTO THE LOWER OH
VALLEY INTO A RECOVERING AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF NWD SHIFTING WARM
FRONT.
I'm not yet posting my thoughts about the upcoming storm system, as there are too many uncertainties. Yes, I do think there will be severe weather in our region. However, some areas may not get the needed instability for a widespread event like what we just witnessed during the April 19-20 event. We'll see how future forecast models are handling the data for a better indication of our severe weather chances locally.
By the way, while many now confirmed tornadoes have been recorded for many areas near Louisville, we really dodged a bullet, as winds peaked at 52mph at the Airport. No significant damage in my area as well. And yay, the power stayed on.
More updates later.
MS
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