MikJournal Monday 01/02/2017

Good morning and welcome to a new year of what I call whatever weather. Here's what to look for this week....

Storm system #1 (SSYS1) rain and thunder, decent soaking again.
Blast of modified Arctic air invades our region with snowshower activity.
SSYS2 late week winter weather potential....

The second storm system...well, you'll just have to be patient. Remember, we have to get through SSYS1 first, then see how strong the cold airmass behind it will become, and then sample the next storm system as it moves ashore, and then see what possible and more likely scenarios will take place.

A lot of moving parts will be in play. That's why all of the alphabet soup models are going to fluctuate until at least tomorrow, maybe tomorrow evening.

However, the models, analogs, and teleconnection signals are all showing something wintry will impact the region later this week. Now, how much wintry is still up in the air, no pun intended.

After that, could the cold air retreat a little bit? All of this talk about blocking along the west coast and blocking on the east coast and a bridging of the two blocks seemed like a lock for a sustained period of much below temperatures.

But, the European model shows temperatures rebounding to at least normal by this time next week. Still cold, but not icebox cold. In addition, some teleconnection signals point to a slight relaxing of the dual blocks.

Perhaps the cold air will be reloading just to our north, poised to plow in here by the middle of the month, and set the stage for a more dramatic winter scenario. That's what the AO may offer as a signal. It is predicted to go negative. I have repeatedly said to watch for an upward tick in the AO after being negative for a time. Throw a storm system in there at about the same time. There you go.

An active month indeed. Have a good and safe week everyone.

MS