MikJournal January 2017 Prediction

Well, it's hard to believe, but after December went into the deep freeze, almost assuring our region would be looking at below normal temperatures, both Louisville and Lexington's temperatures came roaring back and may finish at or even above normal for the month.

Weather patterns moved much faster than even I anticipated. While we did see some freezing precipitation, it was very light, and the snowfall, despite several opportunities, did not amount to much at all.

Strong low pressure systems helped offset brutal cold with record-setting warmth at times, sometimes nearing 30 degrees above average, and above normal rainfall, which was desperately needed.

Therefore, I would say that my December's prediction was not that great. I'd give it a 'C'.

Makes me wonder, should I go on with January's prediction? Hmmm.

Okay. Here it goes.

January will start out quite active with yet another in a series of strong low pressure systems traversing the real estate.

Nevertheless, just like last month, brutal cold will be settling in, possibly setting up additional opportunities for wintry precipitation.

Actually, the teleconnection pattern called the AO, or the Arctic Oscillation remained positive for much of December. Now, looking back, the AO+ did indeed provide a 'milder' regime for our region despite the occasional cold snaps.

What will the AO's effect have on our weather this month? It will favor more opportunities for snowfall.

The Arctic Oscillation will be dipping into negative. This sets the stage for some dramatic winter scenarios that may unfold right here in our region.

As I have mentioned before in some of my comments, look for an AO- signal that will be trending upward for our best snowfalls. Otherwise, a negative AO is still a good predictor since that means the cold will be around to support something related to winter.

A prolonged cold spell will help keep temperatures suppressed. Therefore, below normal temperatures should be expected through the middle of the month. I am expecting the AO to be solidly negative by then. But, I do expect the AO to begin an upward trend maybe before the 15th.

What I'm saying is that if there is a storm system nearby at about that time of the month, an AO- trending upward and a decent storm system could mean a blockbuster snow for the region.

Some places may see double-digit total snowfall for the month (not just in one storm, which may happen...).

I know there is a storm system that is poised to affect the region later in the first week, but it's the middle of the month that I am more excited about.

During the third week of January, I am expecting the 'January Thaw' to commence in earnest. Warmer temperatures though may not be enough to offset the cold this time.

Therefore I'm expecting below normal temperatures for the month with possible above normal snowfall for the month.

MS