MikJournal Monday 01/09/2017

Welcome to the latest edition of MikJournal Monday. Well, we got our first widespread measurable snow event of the winter season late last week into the first part of the weekend.

The seasonal regional snow totals have been updated on the blog. Keep in mind that most of the updated totals occurred during, for some, the 1-2 punch of snowfall that really overachieved for some residents of far southeast Kentucky. Snowfall amounts of 1-5" were common across the state.

The southern storm system really packed a wallop at some locations not used to the winter weather.

Here's a few locations from those reporting stations, not in any particular order....

Asheville, NC  7"
Greenville-Spartanburg, SC   4.3"
Beech Mountain, NC   9.5"
Bryson City, NC  5.6"
Forest City, NC   5.6"
Lake Lure, NC   6.0"
Marion, NC   7.0"
Marshall, NC   6.5"
Mt. Mitchell, NC  12.5"
Tryon, NC   10.5"
Knoxville, TN 4.0"
Elizabethton, TN  7.3"
Danville, VA  8.8"
Appomattox, VA  9.3"
Yadkinville, NC  8.0"

Appomattox. What a cool name for a town. Of course, Virginia is full of history, and this place played a key role in the final months of the Civil War, with General Robert E. Lee surrendering to General Grant at the famous Appomattox Court House in April 1865.

They are no stranger to winter snow, that's for sure. Last January, on the 23rd and 24th, total snowfall accumulation came in at 11.2". You think that was a lot. That same storm system affected our region with an incredible 18.5" at Jackson's Julian Carroll airport on the 22nd and 23rd. Over 22" fell near Booneville. In fact, several locations in eastern Kentucky recorded over a foot of snow. Now, that was one for the history books.

Looking ahead for what is going to happen this week. Well, warmer air is poised to move back into the region. Along with that, a trillion gallons of moisture is heading our way. Well, it's going to seem like a trillion gallons. Whatever's going on out there in California, yep, it's heading this way.

I looked at the latest QPF forecast for the next 7 days, and it shows about 2.5 - 4.5" rain could fall along the Ohio River corridor. Can you imagine how much snow that would have been if it would just stay cold enough?

Signals that seemed promising last week for more wintry weather have now shunted to the other side. More wet than white, it appears. The AO index from the GFS ensembles last week showed a nearly unanimous plunge into the negative by mid-month. However, most of them now show the AO may straddle neutral, which means more milder air hanging around than cold air hanging around.

So, it's still possible to sneak a winter weather maker somewhere in the next two weeks, but anything that falls won't stick around very long. Too many variables now pointing to above normal temperatures and precipitation for our region, at least through the 3rd week of this month. The CPC, AO index, the European Model at 6-7 days out, it just don't look good for us winter weather lovers.

I was hoping the AO index would dip into the quite negative range for a while, then trend higher. But, just barely getting into the negative and then trending higher just is not enough to convince me that a breakout snow will occur anytime soon for the area. So, hopefully, you got to enjoy what white we did have.

Here's to hoping you have a good week.

MS