Final Update for this post...
While I do not fully endorse these last runs of the NAM, that is yesterday's 0z run and today's 12z run, the idea of overachieving is out there. A consistent signal of 1-3" with possible 4" amounts, generally along and north of I-64. Of course, the uplands and mountainous terrain of eastern Kentucky could also see similar totals, but areas generally south of the Parkway will see less accumulation.
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Last night's run of the NAM is the first of two runs that should give us a good indication of amounts of snowfall for the region. While individual locations may vary, I did notice that the heavier amounts have shifted north from earlier runs.
Amounts of 1.5 - 2.5" could be realized for Louisville and Lexington. That is higher than the 1" or less I was forecasting for our region. In fact, areas south of Louisville may get an inch or less instead...almost a mirror image of my previous thinking.
Hopefully, virga will not eat away at whatever precious snow that falls. That is always a bummer.
MS
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