And the NAM Says...?

Anyone who has read the posts on here knows I often use the NAM model in the winter, especially when the event is between 24 and 36 hours away. Of course, I still like to see what the other models are showing. But nearly 80 % of my confidence is placed in this model at 24-36 hours ETA, especially when it's all snow.

The Sunday time frame might bring many their heaviest snowfall for the next few days, not like last month, of course.

Look for at least Advisory snows going into effect soon. Depending on what the next run of the NAM shows, some may be upgraded to Warning status for snowfall of at least 4" in a 24-hour time span.

And the NAM says...
-------------------

9:45 a.m - Still looks very snowy for Kentucky. Awaiting graphics....for Sunday and overnight.

------------------

10:00 a.m - From the Weather Prediction Center...through Monday morning...

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_04.gif

-------------

10:10 a.m - Here's a graphical look at accumulations for Sunday into Monday morning...the numbers are in millimeters. Convert to centimeters by dividing by 10 then divide that by 2.54" to get a liquid equivalent and multiply by 10 to get a 10:1 snow to liquid ratio number in inches...

http://meteocentre.com/models/get_accum.php?mod=nam&run=12&type=SN&hi=024&hf=048&mode=latest&lang=en&map=na

------------------

2:00 p.m - Still no Advisories or Warnings yet.

The only reasons I can think is perhaps one more model run or trying to figure out a time scale for issuing either an Advisory or Warning without causing interference with the southern stream system that may or may not be as impactful. Plus coordinating these advisories/warnings might be a challenge among the Weather offices in our region.

Nevertheless, I would already plan on accumulating snowfall in Kentucky for tomorrow into tomorrow night, at least get an Advisory out there...upgrade to Warning status later if necessary.

---------------------