MikJournal Monday 02/15/16

Welcome to another edition of my MikJournal Monday segment. What to talk about this morning? Hmm. Snow, maybe? Okay, that's different...er, that was a joke.

Yes, snow is as fresh on our mind as it just fell yesterday. Again, a wide range of totals statewide. It seems some of the same areas that got in on the big stuff last month were hit again.

However, like I said last week, I did not anticipate this being like last month's regional burial site. So far, the numbers coming in are confirming this.

I was anticipating some areas possibly getting between 6 and 9" since I mentioned a potential issue with heavy wet snow causing problems for tree limbs and power lines and carports. However, it appears that rainfall and temperatures will help with the melting thus limiting any widespread problems there.

Bowling Green, well, what can I say? Another wallop yesterday at 5.5". By the way, it wasn't even a daily snowfall record. Nevertheless, this brings your monthly total to 8.9". That's just a smidge away from yet another top ten entry for monthly snowfall. Just another tenth of an inch will get you to your 5th top ten appearance for snowfall since 2014. The others are January 2016, February 2015, March 2015, and March 2014.

Here's a few other interesting statistics. Bowling Green's 23.7" for the winter season of December through February and snow season from July 1 to June 30 are flirting with top ten material here as well. This is doable. Check out the math below:

Winter (Dec-Feb) #10 ranking - 25.0"
We need at least 1.3" to tie or set the mark for entry into the top ten.

Snow Season (Jul-Jun) #10 ranking - 27.3"
We need at least 3.6" to tie or set the mark for entry into the top ten.

The way some of our recent March snowfalls have happened, I would not be surprised to see a top ten entry for the snow season that runs from July 1 to June 30.

How about this one? Boston, MA this time last year had already recorded over 82". This year, as of yesterday, they have only 24" for the snow season. So, Bowling Green's 23.7" ranks right up there with Boston's. Of course, there are some locations here in Kentucky that are beating Boston's total by a lot.

I will say that the NAM model at 24-36 hours out accurately predicted my local snowfall right on the dot at 2.1". Well, I don't know about the dot, but I used a 10:1 ratio to predict how much snow I should get and that is what I got. I could have used my rain gauge and collected a melted sample to find the actual snow ratio, but the past two winters have resulted in two more new rain gauges to replace the cracked ones from winters' past. So, I let it sit this one out.

Looking forward to the end of the week and the mild temperatures. But, as I look at the teleconnections going forward, it does appear that the end of the month into the first part of March will feature additional cold shots with more wintry opportunities.

There will be no published March Prediction. Nevertheless, just like 2014 and 2015, this March could offer up an additional top ten type of snowfall for some in our region, whether it be daily or monthly. Stay tuned.

MS