MikJournal Monday 02/01/16

Good Monday morning. What a nice preview of spring over the weekend. Just awesome!

In fact, I did not have time to finish up my February Prediction...well, that was not the only reason. Actually, I am still awaiting a suite of data to help me figure out how the second half of the month may go down. Previous data suggests a conflict in how the month will unfold. And it all centers around the Arctic Oscillation.

The latest data was revealing a significant development in the Arctic region. It's a very technical term, closely related to the Polar Vortex. It is called a Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event, or SSWE. It involves a dynamic transfer of energy from the troposphere to the stratosphere which in turn affects the troposphere again with pronounced effects on the Polar Vortex, the belt of winds that circle the outer fringes of the Polar region.

Not trying to get too technical, but what happens is that the Polar Vortex is either completely displaced, or it splits into two smaller vortices. This can have major ramifications on our winter weather going forward here in the United States.

But, the latest data was incomplete as to whether the SSWE was going to cause a split or just an overall displacement of the Polar Vortex. Hopefully, that will be resolved within a couple of days. Regardless, the belt of winds are going to weaken around the Pole, the pressure difference between the Pole and mid-latitudes will go negative, and cold air is going to dive somewhere. But where? Just have to wait and see.

Some references suggest at least a 3 week lag from a SSWE to affecting our weather around here. So, it does look more likely that the second half of February extending into March may be a period of cold, at times brutal cold, possibly.

So, yes. You have just expanded your weather vocabulary. Get used to this term, again, called Sudden Stratospheric Warming or a Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event.

Another conflict is related to the teleconnections, as they are not aligning themselves properly for an extended outbreak of cold air. I will discuss more of that in my February Prediction.

In the meantime, I'll be glancing periodically on any updates about severe weather chances for the region and include these in a separate post. Busy busy.

MS