MikJournal Monday 02/22/16

Good morning. After a balmy Saturday and springtime thunder Sunday morning, our temperatures are still running above average at this hour (low 40's at my house about 10 miles from Louisville).

In my recent post about projecting a potential top ten warmest winter season for Louisville and Lexington, I also did an analysis of Bowling Green.

Coming into this month, Bowling Green would have needed to average 40.7 degrees for February just to gain the minimum entry into the top ten warmest winter seasons on record. Well, even after a balmy weekend, their average temperature thus far is still at about 39.4 degrees.

For the rest of the month, an average of 41.6 degrees needs to be obtained to gain entry. To put that into perspective, their high and low temperature needs to add up to 83 degrees each day. You can use any set of numbers to make it work, but I chose a high of 53 and a low of 30.

So, each day's average needs to be above 41 or 42 for more days than below 41 or 42. Again, it will be close. With unsettled weather and a colder air mass poised to gain control, the odds are not as favorable compared to say, Lexington. But, it is still possible. I would give it greater than a 50% chance, but barely.

But, wouldn't it be something if Bowling Green set top ten entries for snowfall in two consecutive months and still had a top ten warmest winter season to go with them? That would be wild.

With Spring in the air, you have probably noticed the days getting longer too. Later sunsets and earlier sunrises. Always a good thing, if you ask me.

Naturally, you may be wondering about when Daylight Savings time kicks in. Look no further than here.

Daylight Savings Time 2016 begins March 13 at 2:00 a.m. Of course, we'll 'spring' forward. So, you'll lose an hour of sleep if you go to bed at your normal time.

Did you know last month at this time, our region located in the Midwest sector (why? I don't know), nearly 80% was covered in snow. Today, only 2.9% has snow cover. Nationally, only 17% has snow cover today.

A vigorous storm system will be affecting our region beginning tomorrow and tomorrow night. Lots of wind and rain possible. Heavy snow for some as well. But, where that sets up is hard to pinpoint. But, I am not too optimistic about our chances for a decent snow event.

However, I am still not giving up on winter's grip.

A mix of signals is coming from the teleconnection patterns. The Arctic Oscillation is expected to give a moderately negative signal along with a rarely cooperative NAO by the 26-27th. The EPO will be in positive territory though, but the PNA will still be offering a signal that favors cold shots for our region. However, it is unclear whether the coldest air will reside here or just east or northeast.

The AO will eventually have to trend positive sometime. When the AO levels off or begins to make that trend toward neutral, another possibility exists for one more snow event...for somebody. Could it be us??? We might be able to tell sometime this week.

MS