Welcome to the first MikJournal Monday leap day. Here is a couple of snippets from on-this-day.com
1944 - The Office of Defense Transportation, for the second year in a row, restricted attendance at the Kentucky Derby to residents of the Louisville area. This was an effort to prevent a railroad traffic burden during wartime.
2010 - In Japan, the Tokyo Skytree tower was completed as the tallest tower in the world.
Let's go back in time, oh, let's just say 1992, a random pick for another leap year.
...And here is your Billboard Top Ten for the week of February 29, 1992:
1.....To Be With You (Mr. Big)
2.....I'm Too Sexy (Right Said Fred)
3.....I Love Your Smile (Shanice)
4.....Remember The Time (Michael Jackson)
5.....Diamonds and Pearls (Prince and the N.G.P)
6.....Tell Me What You Want Me To Do (Tevin Campbell)
7.....Don't Let The Sun Go Down On Me (George Michael/Elton John)
8.....Masterpiece (Atlantic Starr)
9.....Smells Like Teen Spirit (Nirvana)
10...All 4 Love (Color Me Badd)
...Or if you're into Country (for the week of February 29, 1992):
1.....What She's Doing Now (Garth Brooks)
2.....Better Class Of Losers (Randy Travis)
3.....Straight Tequila Night (John Anderson)
4.....Maybe It Was Memphis (Pam Tillis)
5.....Except For Monday (Lorrie Morgan)
6.....Is It Cold In Here (Joe Diffie)
7.....Dallas (Alan Jackson)
8.....That's What I Like About You (Trisha Yearwood)
9.....Born Country (Alabama)
10...Is There Life Out There (Reba McEntire)
Notable weather events on February 29, 1992 included the following...
Boise ID set a new February record high temperature of 71 degrees
Danbury CT 62 mph wind gust in the wake of a sharp cold front
Caribou ME Up to 16" snow fell within a 24-hour period
Other parts of the Northeast like Vermont, New Hampshire, and upstate New York experienced moderate to heavy snowfall associated with the same storm system that affected Maine.
Now, back to good old 2016...Is anyone going to experience any notable weather events today? Well, not a whole lot of action to speak of.
Winter Storm products are out near Chicago, including Rockford IL, also parts of Wisconsin for snow amounts of 4-6" of the heavy wet variety type of snow, primarily tonight into Tuesday.
Also, high winds along the coast of south-central Oregon may produce gusts of 60-80 mph along the Capes and Headlands.
But, a developing storm system will take shape and affect our region with changing weather conditions starting tomorrow, bringing in the month of March with a lion-like aggression.
I'm telling you now, Old Man Winter's bag of snow chances are going to have to hurry and make something happen because his time is running out. The teleconnection patterns just are not aligning correctly for any serious winter weather around here.
As the month ends, there should be a barrage of data coming in on how warm the winter season was for much of the country, including the south, where El Nino was supposed to bring below normal temperatures to that part of the country. However, the severe aspect associated with El Nino's influence on the southern jet stream lived up to its billing.
MS
Monday, February 29, 2016
Monday, February 22, 2016
MikJournal Monday 02/22/16
Good morning. After a balmy Saturday and springtime thunder Sunday morning, our temperatures are still running above average at this hour (low 40's at my house about 10 miles from Louisville).
In my recent post about projecting a potential top ten warmest winter season for Louisville and Lexington, I also did an analysis of Bowling Green.
Coming into this month, Bowling Green would have needed to average 40.7 degrees for February just to gain the minimum entry into the top ten warmest winter seasons on record. Well, even after a balmy weekend, their average temperature thus far is still at about 39.4 degrees.
For the rest of the month, an average of 41.6 degrees needs to be obtained to gain entry. To put that into perspective, their high and low temperature needs to add up to 83 degrees each day. You can use any set of numbers to make it work, but I chose a high of 53 and a low of 30.
So, each day's average needs to be above 41 or 42 for more days than below 41 or 42. Again, it will be close. With unsettled weather and a colder air mass poised to gain control, the odds are not as favorable compared to say, Lexington. But, it is still possible. I would give it greater than a 50% chance, but barely.
But, wouldn't it be something if Bowling Green set top ten entries for snowfall in two consecutive months and still had a top ten warmest winter season to go with them? That would be wild.
With Spring in the air, you have probably noticed the days getting longer too. Later sunsets and earlier sunrises. Always a good thing, if you ask me.
Naturally, you may be wondering about when Daylight Savings time kicks in. Look no further than here.
Daylight Savings Time 2016 begins March 13 at 2:00 a.m. Of course, we'll 'spring' forward. So, you'll lose an hour of sleep if you go to bed at your normal time.
Did you know last month at this time, our region located in the Midwest sector (why? I don't know), nearly 80% was covered in snow. Today, only 2.9% has snow cover. Nationally, only 17% has snow cover today.
A vigorous storm system will be affecting our region beginning tomorrow and tomorrow night. Lots of wind and rain possible. Heavy snow for some as well. But, where that sets up is hard to pinpoint. But, I am not too optimistic about our chances for a decent snow event.
However, I am still not giving up on winter's grip.
A mix of signals is coming from the teleconnection patterns. The Arctic Oscillation is expected to give a moderately negative signal along with a rarely cooperative NAO by the 26-27th. The EPO will be in positive territory though, but the PNA will still be offering a signal that favors cold shots for our region. However, it is unclear whether the coldest air will reside here or just east or northeast.
The AO will eventually have to trend positive sometime. When the AO levels off or begins to make that trend toward neutral, another possibility exists for one more snow event...for somebody. Could it be us??? We might be able to tell sometime this week.
MS
In my recent post about projecting a potential top ten warmest winter season for Louisville and Lexington, I also did an analysis of Bowling Green.
Coming into this month, Bowling Green would have needed to average 40.7 degrees for February just to gain the minimum entry into the top ten warmest winter seasons on record. Well, even after a balmy weekend, their average temperature thus far is still at about 39.4 degrees.
For the rest of the month, an average of 41.6 degrees needs to be obtained to gain entry. To put that into perspective, their high and low temperature needs to add up to 83 degrees each day. You can use any set of numbers to make it work, but I chose a high of 53 and a low of 30.
So, each day's average needs to be above 41 or 42 for more days than below 41 or 42. Again, it will be close. With unsettled weather and a colder air mass poised to gain control, the odds are not as favorable compared to say, Lexington. But, it is still possible. I would give it greater than a 50% chance, but barely.
But, wouldn't it be something if Bowling Green set top ten entries for snowfall in two consecutive months and still had a top ten warmest winter season to go with them? That would be wild.
With Spring in the air, you have probably noticed the days getting longer too. Later sunsets and earlier sunrises. Always a good thing, if you ask me.
Naturally, you may be wondering about when Daylight Savings time kicks in. Look no further than here.
Daylight Savings Time 2016 begins March 13 at 2:00 a.m. Of course, we'll 'spring' forward. So, you'll lose an hour of sleep if you go to bed at your normal time.
Did you know last month at this time, our region located in the Midwest sector (why? I don't know), nearly 80% was covered in snow. Today, only 2.9% has snow cover. Nationally, only 17% has snow cover today.
A vigorous storm system will be affecting our region beginning tomorrow and tomorrow night. Lots of wind and rain possible. Heavy snow for some as well. But, where that sets up is hard to pinpoint. But, I am not too optimistic about our chances for a decent snow event.
However, I am still not giving up on winter's grip.
A mix of signals is coming from the teleconnection patterns. The Arctic Oscillation is expected to give a moderately negative signal along with a rarely cooperative NAO by the 26-27th. The EPO will be in positive territory though, but the PNA will still be offering a signal that favors cold shots for our region. However, it is unclear whether the coldest air will reside here or just east or northeast.
The AO will eventually have to trend positive sometime. When the AO levels off or begins to make that trend toward neutral, another possibility exists for one more snow event...for somebody. Could it be us??? We might be able to tell sometime this week.
MS
Sunday, February 21, 2016
Projection Sunday
No, this is not about who's going to be seeded what and where during the NCAA basketball tournament.
I am talking about something more exciting than March Madness...uh, okay, maybe it's not as exciting, but it's a close second?
Whatever.
Periodically, I like to review some regional weather records and see whether they are in jeopardy of being broken. Everybody likes broken records, right?
Well, technically, this will not be a record. But, it will become a part of the top ten, which is still quite an accomplishment. I perused some of the data and found at least two possibilities. This is for Louisville and Lexington. And I guarantee you probably would never have guessed this subject.
Louisville's and Lexington's warmest winter seasons on record will still be in tact. However, entry into the top ten warmest winter seasons is a realistic possibility for both.
Louisville needed to average 40.7 degrees for the months of December through February as a minimum to gain entry at number 10. Right now, Louisville is on track to beat that minimum. For the last 9 days of February, Louisville would need an average of 37.7 degrees. To put that into perspective, a high of 46 and a low of 30 each day should cover that.
Lexington's path looks even easier, I believe. Lexington needed to average 38.6 degrees for December though February to attain a minimum entry into the top ten warmest winter seasons on record. Right now, Lexington would need to average 34.5 degrees for the rest of the month. For perspective, a high of 44 and a low of 25 each day should cover that.
Old Man Winter wants to make sure his reputation will not be smeared. Going into the last days of this month will pose a challenge for both locations. Right now, both are assured a spot in the top ten, but the averages will come down from here on out. I think it's going to be really close.
And down the stretch they come! Pretty exciting, huh?
MS
I am talking about something more exciting than March Madness...uh, okay, maybe it's not as exciting, but it's a close second?
Whatever.
Periodically, I like to review some regional weather records and see whether they are in jeopardy of being broken. Everybody likes broken records, right?
Well, technically, this will not be a record. But, it will become a part of the top ten, which is still quite an accomplishment. I perused some of the data and found at least two possibilities. This is for Louisville and Lexington. And I guarantee you probably would never have guessed this subject.
Louisville's and Lexington's warmest winter seasons on record will still be in tact. However, entry into the top ten warmest winter seasons is a realistic possibility for both.
Louisville needed to average 40.7 degrees for the months of December through February as a minimum to gain entry at number 10. Right now, Louisville is on track to beat that minimum. For the last 9 days of February, Louisville would need an average of 37.7 degrees. To put that into perspective, a high of 46 and a low of 30 each day should cover that.
Lexington's path looks even easier, I believe. Lexington needed to average 38.6 degrees for December though February to attain a minimum entry into the top ten warmest winter seasons on record. Right now, Lexington would need to average 34.5 degrees for the rest of the month. For perspective, a high of 44 and a low of 25 each day should cover that.
Old Man Winter wants to make sure his reputation will not be smeared. Going into the last days of this month will pose a challenge for both locations. Right now, both are assured a spot in the top ten, but the averages will come down from here on out. I think it's going to be really close.
And down the stretch they come! Pretty exciting, huh?
MS
Monday, February 15, 2016
MikJournal Monday 02/15/16
Welcome to another edition of my MikJournal Monday segment. What to talk about this morning? Hmm. Snow, maybe? Okay, that's different...er, that was a joke.
Yes, snow is as fresh on our mind as it just fell yesterday. Again, a wide range of totals statewide. It seems some of the same areas that got in on the big stuff last month were hit again.
However, like I said last week, I did not anticipate this being like last month's regional burial site. So far, the numbers coming in are confirming this.
I was anticipating some areas possibly getting between 6 and 9" since I mentioned a potential issue with heavy wet snow causing problems for tree limbs and power lines and carports. However, it appears that rainfall and temperatures will help with the melting thus limiting any widespread problems there.
Bowling Green, well, what can I say? Another wallop yesterday at 5.5". By the way, it wasn't even a daily snowfall record. Nevertheless, this brings your monthly total to 8.9". That's just a smidge away from yet another top ten entry for monthly snowfall. Just another tenth of an inch will get you to your 5th top ten appearance for snowfall since 2014. The others are January 2016, February 2015, March 2015, and March 2014.
Here's a few other interesting statistics. Bowling Green's 23.7" for the winter season of December through February and snow season from July 1 to June 30 are flirting with top ten material here as well. This is doable. Check out the math below:
Winter (Dec-Feb) #10 ranking - 25.0"
We need at least 1.3" to tie or set the mark for entry into the top ten.
Snow Season (Jul-Jun) #10 ranking - 27.3"
We need at least 3.6" to tie or set the mark for entry into the top ten.
The way some of our recent March snowfalls have happened, I would not be surprised to see a top ten entry for the snow season that runs from July 1 to June 30.
How about this one? Boston, MA this time last year had already recorded over 82". This year, as of yesterday, they have only 24" for the snow season. So, Bowling Green's 23.7" ranks right up there with Boston's. Of course, there are some locations here in Kentucky that are beating Boston's total by a lot.
I will say that the NAM model at 24-36 hours out accurately predicted my local snowfall right on the dot at 2.1". Well, I don't know about the dot, but I used a 10:1 ratio to predict how much snow I should get and that is what I got. I could have used my rain gauge and collected a melted sample to find the actual snow ratio, but the past two winters have resulted in two more new rain gauges to replace the cracked ones from winters' past. So, I let it sit this one out.
Looking forward to the end of the week and the mild temperatures. But, as I look at the teleconnections going forward, it does appear that the end of the month into the first part of March will feature additional cold shots with more wintry opportunities.
There will be no published March Prediction. Nevertheless, just like 2014 and 2015, this March could offer up an additional top ten type of snowfall for some in our region, whether it be daily or monthly. Stay tuned.
MS
Yes, snow is as fresh on our mind as it just fell yesterday. Again, a wide range of totals statewide. It seems some of the same areas that got in on the big stuff last month were hit again.
However, like I said last week, I did not anticipate this being like last month's regional burial site. So far, the numbers coming in are confirming this.
I was anticipating some areas possibly getting between 6 and 9" since I mentioned a potential issue with heavy wet snow causing problems for tree limbs and power lines and carports. However, it appears that rainfall and temperatures will help with the melting thus limiting any widespread problems there.
Bowling Green, well, what can I say? Another wallop yesterday at 5.5". By the way, it wasn't even a daily snowfall record. Nevertheless, this brings your monthly total to 8.9". That's just a smidge away from yet another top ten entry for monthly snowfall. Just another tenth of an inch will get you to your 5th top ten appearance for snowfall since 2014. The others are January 2016, February 2015, March 2015, and March 2014.
Here's a few other interesting statistics. Bowling Green's 23.7" for the winter season of December through February and snow season from July 1 to June 30 are flirting with top ten material here as well. This is doable. Check out the math below:
Winter (Dec-Feb) #10 ranking - 25.0"
We need at least 1.3" to tie or set the mark for entry into the top ten.
Snow Season (Jul-Jun) #10 ranking - 27.3"
We need at least 3.6" to tie or set the mark for entry into the top ten.
The way some of our recent March snowfalls have happened, I would not be surprised to see a top ten entry for the snow season that runs from July 1 to June 30.
How about this one? Boston, MA this time last year had already recorded over 82". This year, as of yesterday, they have only 24" for the snow season. So, Bowling Green's 23.7" ranks right up there with Boston's. Of course, there are some locations here in Kentucky that are beating Boston's total by a lot.
I will say that the NAM model at 24-36 hours out accurately predicted my local snowfall right on the dot at 2.1". Well, I don't know about the dot, but I used a 10:1 ratio to predict how much snow I should get and that is what I got. I could have used my rain gauge and collected a melted sample to find the actual snow ratio, but the past two winters have resulted in two more new rain gauges to replace the cracked ones from winters' past. So, I let it sit this one out.
Looking forward to the end of the week and the mild temperatures. But, as I look at the teleconnections going forward, it does appear that the end of the month into the first part of March will feature additional cold shots with more wintry opportunities.
There will be no published March Prediction. Nevertheless, just like 2014 and 2015, this March could offer up an additional top ten type of snowfall for some in our region, whether it be daily or monthly. Stay tuned.
MS
Saturday, February 13, 2016
And the NAM Says...?
Anyone who has read the posts on here knows I often use the NAM model in the winter, especially when the event is between 24 and 36 hours away. Of course, I still like to see what the other models are showing. But nearly 80 % of my confidence is placed in this model at 24-36 hours ETA, especially when it's all snow.
The Sunday time frame might bring many their heaviest snowfall for the next few days, not like last month, of course.
Look for at least Advisory snows going into effect soon. Depending on what the next run of the NAM shows, some may be upgraded to Warning status for snowfall of at least 4" in a 24-hour time span.
And the NAM says...
-------------------
9:45 a.m - Still looks very snowy for Kentucky. Awaiting graphics....for Sunday and overnight.
------------------
10:00 a.m - From the Weather Prediction Center...through Monday morning...
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_04.gif
-------------
10:10 a.m - Here's a graphical look at accumulations for Sunday into Monday morning...the numbers are in millimeters. Convert to centimeters by dividing by 10 then divide that by 2.54" to get a liquid equivalent and multiply by 10 to get a 10:1 snow to liquid ratio number in inches...
http://meteocentre.com/models/get_accum.php?mod=nam&run=12&type=SN&hi=024&hf=048&mode=latest&lang=en&map=na
------------------
2:00 p.m - Still no Advisories or Warnings yet.
The only reasons I can think is perhaps one more model run or trying to figure out a time scale for issuing either an Advisory or Warning without causing interference with the southern stream system that may or may not be as impactful. Plus coordinating these advisories/warnings might be a challenge among the Weather offices in our region.
Nevertheless, I would already plan on accumulating snowfall in Kentucky for tomorrow into tomorrow night, at least get an Advisory out there...upgrade to Warning status later if necessary.
---------------------
The Sunday time frame might bring many their heaviest snowfall for the next few days, not like last month, of course.
Look for at least Advisory snows going into effect soon. Depending on what the next run of the NAM shows, some may be upgraded to Warning status for snowfall of at least 4" in a 24-hour time span.
And the NAM says...
-------------------
9:45 a.m - Still looks very snowy for Kentucky. Awaiting graphics....for Sunday and overnight.
------------------
10:00 a.m - From the Weather Prediction Center...through Monday morning...
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_04.gif
-------------
10:10 a.m - Here's a graphical look at accumulations for Sunday into Monday morning...the numbers are in millimeters. Convert to centimeters by dividing by 10 then divide that by 2.54" to get a liquid equivalent and multiply by 10 to get a 10:1 snow to liquid ratio number in inches...
http://meteocentre.com/models/get_accum.php?mod=nam&run=12&type=SN&hi=024&hf=048&mode=latest&lang=en&map=na
------------------
2:00 p.m - Still no Advisories or Warnings yet.
The only reasons I can think is perhaps one more model run or trying to figure out a time scale for issuing either an Advisory or Warning without causing interference with the southern stream system that may or may not be as impactful. Plus coordinating these advisories/warnings might be a challenge among the Weather offices in our region.
Nevertheless, I would already plan on accumulating snowfall in Kentucky for tomorrow into tomorrow night, at least get an Advisory out there...upgrade to Warning status later if necessary.
---------------------
Thursday, February 11, 2016
Lexington KY's Snowfall History Since 01/01/1990
Well, that was an interesting project. I picked apart the last 25 years or so of the calendar years and official snow seasons that run from July 1 through June 30 of each year and came up with some revealing totals for Lexington KY. Find out which day of each month had the most days of measurable snow >0.1" during the winter season of December through February over all those years. How about which days of the winter season did not record any measurable snow greater than a trace amount. And of course, the efficiency numbers. I'll explain that in a little bit.
This is just a sample of what my spreadsheet looks like for February since 1990, ending in 2015. As you can see, the 2nd column shows the number of instances with measurable snow greater than 0.1" for that date. The 3rd column displays the total snowfall that has occurred for that date. Then, the last column shows the efficiency number, or how many inches of snow accumulated during each instance for that date.
The most productive snow days fall right in the middle of the month. Since 1990, February 15 and 16 typically average between 2.8 and 3.4" per snow event.
During any given year, February 10 has proven to be the likeliest day you will have measurable snow. Yesterday, as a matter of fact, Lexington received 0.5" of snow for this February 10. Of course, that is not included in the table above, since it only runs through 2015. But, now you can chalk up another day, at 9 now, that it has snowed on February 10 since 1990.
The 123.4" that has accumulated during the 1990-2015 time period is the snowiest month of the winter and subsequently the calendar year. Yes, it beat out the month of January, which has more days, and every day of that month has seen some type of measurable snow throughout the aforementioned time period.
At the moment, February 20 is the only day that has not registered any measurable snow since 1990.
MS
| Days of Snow | Total Inches | Inches/Day | ||
| 1-Feb | 2 | 1.1 | 0.55 | |
| 2-Feb | 4 | 6.1 | 1.53 | |
| 3-Feb | 5 | 8.4 | 1.68 | |
| 4-Feb | 6 | 14.6 | 2.43 | |
| 5-Feb | 5 | 3.9 | 0.78 | |
| 6-Feb | 6 | 7.0 | 1.17 | |
| 7-Feb | 4 | 5.8 | 1.45 | |
| 8-Feb | 6 | 5.1 | 0.85 | |
| 9-Feb | 6 | 6.6 | 1.10 | |
| 10-Feb | 8 | 5.3 | 0.66 | |
| 11-Feb | 4 | 6.8 | 1.70 | |
| 12-Feb | 3 | 1.8 | 0.60 | |
| 13-Feb | 5 | 2.7 | 0.54 | |
| 14-Feb | 5 | 2.5 | 0.50 | |
| 15-Feb | 3 | 10.2 | 3.40 | |
| 16-Feb | 4 | 11.3 | 2.83 | |
| 17-Feb | 3 | 3.3 | 1.10 | |
| 18-Feb | 2 | 5.5 | 2.75 | |
| 19-Feb | 1 | 0.1 | 0.10 | |
| 20-Feb | ||||
| 21-Feb | 2 | 1.1 | 0.55 | |
| 22-Feb | 1 | 1.8 | 1.80 | |
| 23-Feb | 3 | 0.7 | 0.23 | |
| 24-Feb | 1 | 0.8 | 0.80 | |
| 25-Feb | 4 | 8.3 | 2.08 | |
| 26-Feb | 4 | 1.6 | 0.40 | |
| 27-Feb | 1 | 0.2 | 0.20 | |
| 28-Feb | 1 | 0.3 | 0.30 | |
| 29-Feb | 1 | 0.5 | 0.50 | |
| 100 | 123.4 | 1.16 | ||
This is just a sample of what my spreadsheet looks like for February since 1990, ending in 2015. As you can see, the 2nd column shows the number of instances with measurable snow greater than 0.1" for that date. The 3rd column displays the total snowfall that has occurred for that date. Then, the last column shows the efficiency number, or how many inches of snow accumulated during each instance for that date.
The most productive snow days fall right in the middle of the month. Since 1990, February 15 and 16 typically average between 2.8 and 3.4" per snow event.
During any given year, February 10 has proven to be the likeliest day you will have measurable snow. Yesterday, as a matter of fact, Lexington received 0.5" of snow for this February 10. Of course, that is not included in the table above, since it only runs through 2015. But, now you can chalk up another day, at 9 now, that it has snowed on February 10 since 1990.
The 123.4" that has accumulated during the 1990-2015 time period is the snowiest month of the winter and subsequently the calendar year. Yes, it beat out the month of January, which has more days, and every day of that month has seen some type of measurable snow throughout the aforementioned time period.
At the moment, February 20 is the only day that has not registered any measurable snow since 1990.
MS
Monday, February 8, 2016
MikJournal Monday 02/08/16
I want to show you what I have been working on this past week. It's been a lot of fun though a bit tedious at times.
Briefly, this snapshot of my spreadsheet shows Lexington Kentucky's snowfall amounts since February 1990 through 2015.
The second column highlights how many times measurable snow of at least 0.1" has occurred for each day of the month. The third column displays the total snowfall that has occurred for that date over the years since 1990. Finally, the last column shows what I call the efficiency number, or how much snow fell per measurable snow event for that date.
Of course, the totals are displayed at the bottom. Just to let you know, since 1990, February has been the most productive month of the winter for snowfall in Lexington. Yes, despite less number of days than January and including no measurable snowfall for the 20th of February, the month beat out January in total snowfall during this period.
As a side note, if you look at the date of February 10, you will note that there have been 8 instances of measurable snow for that date, the most of any day for the month of February. And you know what? We may add to that, since snow showers are expected to occur over the next few days, including the 10th.
In future posts when nothing is going on, I'll display more spreadsheet views of the other winter months of December and January. Actually, I'm just about done with February, so that one will be available this week. But, the spreadsheet view you see above is what will be displayed during that post.
For the next few days, regionally, we will be dealing with off and on snow showers and squalls. We call them snow showers because of the convective nature of the type of snow. Lots of instability between the surface and the air above will promote and foster bursts of, at times, heavy snow and wind with some of the stronger bands or squalls.
For the most part, the major arteries of our highway systems in Kentucky should be able to handle the light to moderate bands that occur during the daytime, but if these squalls are still kicking up a fuss during the nighttime hours, travel will become more negatively impacted.
In addition, the heavier squalls with strong winds at times, will reduce visibility suddenly. Drivers will likely be slowing down dramatically at times. So, do not think that since the weather is not bad where you are currently driving is going to be that way for the rest of your travel. A distance of a few miles or less will have no snow at times to intense, near white-out conditions at other times. And if you are just plowing along at normal highway speed when you come upon drivers that have had to slow down, well, you know what can happen. Don't be that driver. Use common sense and plan ahead for travel issues. You are not the only driver on the road. I know, that's hard to believe, isn't it? I have to tell myself that all of the time. So, be careful out there.
MS
Briefly, this snapshot of my spreadsheet shows Lexington Kentucky's snowfall amounts since February 1990 through 2015.
| Days of Snow | Total Inches | Inches/Day | ||
| 1-Feb | 2 | 1.1 | 0.55 | |
| 2-Feb | 4 | 6.1 | 1.53 | |
| 3-Feb | 5 | 8.4 | 1.68 | |
| 4-Feb | 6 | 14.6 | 2.43 | |
| 5-Feb | 5 | 3.9 | 0.78 | |
| 6-Feb | 6 | 7.0 | 1.17 | |
| 7-Feb | 4 | 5.8 | 1.45 | |
| 8-Feb | 6 | 5.1 | 0.85 | |
| 9-Feb | 6 | 6.6 | 1.10 | |
| 10-Feb | 8 | 5.3 | 0.66 | |
| 11-Feb | 4 | 6.8 | 1.70 | |
| 12-Feb | 3 | 1.8 | 0.60 | |
| 13-Feb | 5 | 2.7 | 0.54 | |
| 14-Feb | 5 | 2.5 | 0.50 | |
| 15-Feb | 3 | 10.2 | 3.40 | |
| 16-Feb | 4 | 11.3 | 2.83 | |
| 17-Feb | 3 | 3.3 | 1.10 | |
| 18-Feb | 2 | 5.5 | 2.75 | |
| 19-Feb | 1 | 0.1 | 0.10 | |
| 20-Feb | ||||
| 21-Feb | 2 | 1.1 | 0.55 | |
| 22-Feb | 1 | 1.8 | 1.80 | |
| 23-Feb | 3 | 0.7 | 0.23 | |
| 24-Feb | 1 | 0.8 | 0.80 | |
| 25-Feb | 4 | 8.3 | 2.08 | |
| 26-Feb | 4 | 1.6 | 0.40 | |
| 27-Feb | 1 | 0.2 | 0.20 | |
| 28-Feb | 1 | 0.3 | 0.30 | |
| 29-Feb | 1 | 0.5 | 0.50 | |
| 100 | 123.4 | 1.16 | ||
The second column highlights how many times measurable snow of at least 0.1" has occurred for each day of the month. The third column displays the total snowfall that has occurred for that date over the years since 1990. Finally, the last column shows what I call the efficiency number, or how much snow fell per measurable snow event for that date.
Of course, the totals are displayed at the bottom. Just to let you know, since 1990, February has been the most productive month of the winter for snowfall in Lexington. Yes, despite less number of days than January and including no measurable snowfall for the 20th of February, the month beat out January in total snowfall during this period.
As a side note, if you look at the date of February 10, you will note that there have been 8 instances of measurable snow for that date, the most of any day for the month of February. And you know what? We may add to that, since snow showers are expected to occur over the next few days, including the 10th.
In future posts when nothing is going on, I'll display more spreadsheet views of the other winter months of December and January. Actually, I'm just about done with February, so that one will be available this week. But, the spreadsheet view you see above is what will be displayed during that post.
For the next few days, regionally, we will be dealing with off and on snow showers and squalls. We call them snow showers because of the convective nature of the type of snow. Lots of instability between the surface and the air above will promote and foster bursts of, at times, heavy snow and wind with some of the stronger bands or squalls.
For the most part, the major arteries of our highway systems in Kentucky should be able to handle the light to moderate bands that occur during the daytime, but if these squalls are still kicking up a fuss during the nighttime hours, travel will become more negatively impacted.
In addition, the heavier squalls with strong winds at times, will reduce visibility suddenly. Drivers will likely be slowing down dramatically at times. So, do not think that since the weather is not bad where you are currently driving is going to be that way for the rest of your travel. A distance of a few miles or less will have no snow at times to intense, near white-out conditions at other times. And if you are just plowing along at normal highway speed when you come upon drivers that have had to slow down, well, you know what can happen. Don't be that driver. Use common sense and plan ahead for travel issues. You are not the only driver on the road. I know, that's hard to believe, isn't it? I have to tell myself that all of the time. So, be careful out there.
MS
Saturday, February 6, 2016
AO Negative to Positive Alert
Ok, what a strange sounding title for a post. However, one of the patterns I have noticed is when the Arctic Oscillation is in a significantly negative mode (-3 to -5) but trending positively toward neutral, milder air is attempting to return to our region after a stout cold blast.
Often associated with milder air will be a storm system that gathers moisture from the Gulf. As long as the track of the low pressure area does not take a route to the Great Lakes, which should not happen in this case but is still possible, some type of significant wintry weather will occur in our region.
However, I really would not say that this storm system, if it can develop, will be as memorable as the January Jukebox when everyone was doing snow dances to the sound of snowflakes piling up in their neighborhoods.
Look, this storm system has not developed yet, but the AO will be trending toward neutral at about the same time the models are developing a potential winter storm. But, the other teleconnections that I like to use are pretty much out to lunch or are on vacation.
The NAO, EPO, and PNA will all be positive. Therefore, if it does snow, look for a heavy perhaps wet snow, good-packing unlike last month's snowfall for many that was more dry and powdery.
Since snow ratios will be lower in number due to the high water content, I would expect lesser accumulations as the snow will pack down an already existing base.
IF this storm system develops and will produce snow for our region, which could happen in the vicinity of February 14.
At this time, it would be impossible to peg amounts. I am just letting you know that this storm system does have a teleconnection that favors a winter storm for someone, hopefully our region if of course you're a snow lover like me.
MS
Often associated with milder air will be a storm system that gathers moisture from the Gulf. As long as the track of the low pressure area does not take a route to the Great Lakes, which should not happen in this case but is still possible, some type of significant wintry weather will occur in our region.
However, I really would not say that this storm system, if it can develop, will be as memorable as the January Jukebox when everyone was doing snow dances to the sound of snowflakes piling up in their neighborhoods.
Look, this storm system has not developed yet, but the AO will be trending toward neutral at about the same time the models are developing a potential winter storm. But, the other teleconnections that I like to use are pretty much out to lunch or are on vacation.
The NAO, EPO, and PNA will all be positive. Therefore, if it does snow, look for a heavy perhaps wet snow, good-packing unlike last month's snowfall for many that was more dry and powdery.
Since snow ratios will be lower in number due to the high water content, I would expect lesser accumulations as the snow will pack down an already existing base.
IF this storm system develops and will produce snow for our region, which could happen in the vicinity of February 14.
At this time, it would be impossible to peg amounts. I am just letting you know that this storm system does have a teleconnection that favors a winter storm for someone, hopefully our region if of course you're a snow lover like me.
MS
Wednesday, February 3, 2016
MikJournal February Prediction
Welcome to the last in a 3-part series of the MikJournal's winter prediction. I find this monthly format to be far superior than a single snapshot of what the entire winter season will be about without any specific time periods mentioned and impending storm systems to worry about. Plus the data is more fresh and useful in actually providing readers with a better assessment of the state of our climate as we progress throughout the winter season. In other words, there is more accountability with a monthly projection than some long-range outlook that just does not do much for the average reader, who will quite likely forget what the outlook said over the course of a few months.
I have been pleased with my December and January predictions. The averages have been accurately achieved and a general description of how teleconnections are associated with general weather patterns have been explained and realized.
Moving into the month of February, we have already seen quite a bit of precipitation. Plus, we are beginning to experience the first of perhaps several transitions for the month when it comes to temperature variability.
Let me explain.
Part of the delay in the issuance of this report was due to the need for the freshest data possible, since there has been mixed thus conflicting data about how cold the month of February may become.
This first week of February looks quite normal for the month, except the hefty rain totals realized late yesterday and overnight.
By the time we get into the second week, temperatures look to average several degrees below normal. In addition, clipper type systems will provide intermittent light snowfall during the time period. I back this up with the teleconnection patterns that I often refer to in my assessments.
The Arctic Oscillation, the Keeper of the Cold, should be entering the negative phase, joined by a negative EPO and a positive PNA. But, it only peaks out for a few days. Why? So far, the postive NAO is not on board yet with setting up our region for a long-term progression of below normal temperatures. Remember, we need a good blocking pattern near Greenland, and this is where the NAO can become most useful being in a negative phase.
Therefore, the third week looks to average out near normal in terms of temperatures as the AO begins to bottom out and trend more positive while the EPO becomes positive and the PNA trends negative late in the period, suggesting milder air interspersed with cold shots from the still negative AO.
Next, the fun part. This is what held me up for the longest time in getting this report together.
The AO, is expected to transition to positive for a brief time. As you found it last month, this transition from deep negative AO toward neutral and positive AO can produce exciting winter weather for our region.
The data I see for the fourth week of February does not suggest a record-setting snowfall like we had in January. However, this looks to be the greatest opportunity to see a significant snowfall for the month. Obviously, I cannot foresee actual accumulations this far out, but the potential is there for a decent storm system.
After a brief thaw from a possible snowpack and resulting frigid overnight temperatures, the AO should trend sharply negative for the latter half of the month, plunging our region well below normal again in terms of temperature
This is in part due to a phenomena in the Arctic region called a Sudden Stratospheric Warming. A transfer of energy from the troposphere to the stratosphere will have a pronounced effect on the Polar Vortex. The latest data suggests the Polar Vortex will likely become displaced as the belt of winds weaken. However, the primary displacement looks to be over Europe/Asia. Nevertheless, Arctic air will become readily available for most, as along as the other teleconnections align., such as +PNA, -EPO, -NAO, and of course the -AO.
I do expect temperatures for the month to average below normal.
I expect precipitation to average near normal to below normal.
MS
I have been pleased with my December and January predictions. The averages have been accurately achieved and a general description of how teleconnections are associated with general weather patterns have been explained and realized.
Moving into the month of February, we have already seen quite a bit of precipitation. Plus, we are beginning to experience the first of perhaps several transitions for the month when it comes to temperature variability.
Let me explain.
Part of the delay in the issuance of this report was due to the need for the freshest data possible, since there has been mixed thus conflicting data about how cold the month of February may become.
This first week of February looks quite normal for the month, except the hefty rain totals realized late yesterday and overnight.
By the time we get into the second week, temperatures look to average several degrees below normal. In addition, clipper type systems will provide intermittent light snowfall during the time period. I back this up with the teleconnection patterns that I often refer to in my assessments.
The Arctic Oscillation, the Keeper of the Cold, should be entering the negative phase, joined by a negative EPO and a positive PNA. But, it only peaks out for a few days. Why? So far, the postive NAO is not on board yet with setting up our region for a long-term progression of below normal temperatures. Remember, we need a good blocking pattern near Greenland, and this is where the NAO can become most useful being in a negative phase.
Therefore, the third week looks to average out near normal in terms of temperatures as the AO begins to bottom out and trend more positive while the EPO becomes positive and the PNA trends negative late in the period, suggesting milder air interspersed with cold shots from the still negative AO.
Next, the fun part. This is what held me up for the longest time in getting this report together.
The AO, is expected to transition to positive for a brief time. As you found it last month, this transition from deep negative AO toward neutral and positive AO can produce exciting winter weather for our region.
The data I see for the fourth week of February does not suggest a record-setting snowfall like we had in January. However, this looks to be the greatest opportunity to see a significant snowfall for the month. Obviously, I cannot foresee actual accumulations this far out, but the potential is there for a decent storm system.
After a brief thaw from a possible snowpack and resulting frigid overnight temperatures, the AO should trend sharply negative for the latter half of the month, plunging our region well below normal again in terms of temperature
This is in part due to a phenomena in the Arctic region called a Sudden Stratospheric Warming. A transfer of energy from the troposphere to the stratosphere will have a pronounced effect on the Polar Vortex. The latest data suggests the Polar Vortex will likely become displaced as the belt of winds weaken. However, the primary displacement looks to be over Europe/Asia. Nevertheless, Arctic air will become readily available for most, as along as the other teleconnections align., such as +PNA, -EPO, -NAO, and of course the -AO.
I do expect temperatures for the month to average below normal.
I expect precipitation to average near normal to below normal.
MS
Tuesday, February 2, 2016
NOWCAST 02/02/16 Severe Weather Possible
The numbers will be there....All available data may show support for severe weather for our region. But will we see any widespread issues with this setup?
Analogs do not support a widespread severe weather outbreak, but the numbers are pretty scary. Nevertheless, the best chances for tornadoes appear to be west and south of Kentucky. But, isolated tornado chances still exist across the state, especially west and south.
The more sun we get, the windier it will be today, more instability. The caveat...say it with me, THE CAP. Just like spring and summer, the dreaded cap will stall initial development of thunderstorms. But, once the cap breaks, storms fire up quickly and may reach severe limits.
It will be interesting to see how many severe reports we get from this system. I'm not too impressed but do believe a few strong tornadoes are possible where the SPC has been highlighting the greatest risk, generally west and south of I-65. Look for the updates below....
--------------------------------------
Update 1:30pm
Quick update...a few showers not severe have broken out during the last couple of hours. While a few downpours can be expected, nothing threatening with these cells. In fact may hamper instability for a time reducing severe threat for some.
Winds will eventually get cranking soon.
Tornado Watch for Western Kentucky...not an impressive Watch box as far as probabilities go for tornadoes. 50% chance for two or more within that large Watch box. Low end for strong tornadoes.
-----------------------
Update 3:20pm
No warnings locally or regionally for that matter.
A couple of tornado warnings in Mississippi, don't know if any are confirmed yet or just radar-indicated.
A growing line of storms moving across western Kentucky with heavy rain.
Perhaps these less intense storms may rob the atmosphere of the needed instability for severe weather.
-------------------------
Update 4:10pm
New Tornado Watch till 11:00pm est
Includes Breckinridge, Hardin, Meade, and Nelson counties in Louisville CWA.
Jefferson County not included.
More info later.
Also Tornado Warning not too far from Clarksville Tennessee, moving northeast.
-----------------
Update 5:15pm
Not too many damage reports coming in...except in a few counties of Mississippi, possibly a tornadic cell affecting the few counties involved.
Otherwise, are getting radar indicated tornado warnings for parts of western Kentucky, but no damage reports received nor confirmed touchdowns.
-------------
Analogs do not support a widespread severe weather outbreak, but the numbers are pretty scary. Nevertheless, the best chances for tornadoes appear to be west and south of Kentucky. But, isolated tornado chances still exist across the state, especially west and south.
The more sun we get, the windier it will be today, more instability. The caveat...say it with me, THE CAP. Just like spring and summer, the dreaded cap will stall initial development of thunderstorms. But, once the cap breaks, storms fire up quickly and may reach severe limits.
It will be interesting to see how many severe reports we get from this system. I'm not too impressed but do believe a few strong tornadoes are possible where the SPC has been highlighting the greatest risk, generally west and south of I-65. Look for the updates below....
--------------------------------------
Update 1:30pm
Quick update...a few showers not severe have broken out during the last couple of hours. While a few downpours can be expected, nothing threatening with these cells. In fact may hamper instability for a time reducing severe threat for some.
Winds will eventually get cranking soon.
Tornado Watch for Western Kentucky...not an impressive Watch box as far as probabilities go for tornadoes. 50% chance for two or more within that large Watch box. Low end for strong tornadoes.
-----------------------
Update 3:20pm
No warnings locally or regionally for that matter.
A couple of tornado warnings in Mississippi, don't know if any are confirmed yet or just radar-indicated.
A growing line of storms moving across western Kentucky with heavy rain.
Perhaps these less intense storms may rob the atmosphere of the needed instability for severe weather.
-------------------------
Update 4:10pm
New Tornado Watch till 11:00pm est
Includes Breckinridge, Hardin, Meade, and Nelson counties in Louisville CWA.
Jefferson County not included.
More info later.
Also Tornado Warning not too far from Clarksville Tennessee, moving northeast.
-----------------
Update 5:15pm
Not too many damage reports coming in...except in a few counties of Mississippi, possibly a tornadic cell affecting the few counties involved.
Otherwise, are getting radar indicated tornado warnings for parts of western Kentucky, but no damage reports received nor confirmed touchdowns.
-------------
Monday, February 1, 2016
MikJournal Monday 02/01/16
Good Monday morning. What a nice preview of spring over the weekend. Just awesome!
In fact, I did not have time to finish up my February Prediction...well, that was not the only reason. Actually, I am still awaiting a suite of data to help me figure out how the second half of the month may go down. Previous data suggests a conflict in how the month will unfold. And it all centers around the Arctic Oscillation.
The latest data was revealing a significant development in the Arctic region. It's a very technical term, closely related to the Polar Vortex. It is called a Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event, or SSWE. It involves a dynamic transfer of energy from the troposphere to the stratosphere which in turn affects the troposphere again with pronounced effects on the Polar Vortex, the belt of winds that circle the outer fringes of the Polar region.
Not trying to get too technical, but what happens is that the Polar Vortex is either completely displaced, or it splits into two smaller vortices. This can have major ramifications on our winter weather going forward here in the United States.
But, the latest data was incomplete as to whether the SSWE was going to cause a split or just an overall displacement of the Polar Vortex. Hopefully, that will be resolved within a couple of days. Regardless, the belt of winds are going to weaken around the Pole, the pressure difference between the Pole and mid-latitudes will go negative, and cold air is going to dive somewhere. But where? Just have to wait and see.
Some references suggest at least a 3 week lag from a SSWE to affecting our weather around here. So, it does look more likely that the second half of February extending into March may be a period of cold, at times brutal cold, possibly.
So, yes. You have just expanded your weather vocabulary. Get used to this term, again, called Sudden Stratospheric Warming or a Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event.
Another conflict is related to the teleconnections, as they are not aligning themselves properly for an extended outbreak of cold air. I will discuss more of that in my February Prediction.
In the meantime, I'll be glancing periodically on any updates about severe weather chances for the region and include these in a separate post. Busy busy.
MS
In fact, I did not have time to finish up my February Prediction...well, that was not the only reason. Actually, I am still awaiting a suite of data to help me figure out how the second half of the month may go down. Previous data suggests a conflict in how the month will unfold. And it all centers around the Arctic Oscillation.
The latest data was revealing a significant development in the Arctic region. It's a very technical term, closely related to the Polar Vortex. It is called a Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event, or SSWE. It involves a dynamic transfer of energy from the troposphere to the stratosphere which in turn affects the troposphere again with pronounced effects on the Polar Vortex, the belt of winds that circle the outer fringes of the Polar region.
Not trying to get too technical, but what happens is that the Polar Vortex is either completely displaced, or it splits into two smaller vortices. This can have major ramifications on our winter weather going forward here in the United States.
But, the latest data was incomplete as to whether the SSWE was going to cause a split or just an overall displacement of the Polar Vortex. Hopefully, that will be resolved within a couple of days. Regardless, the belt of winds are going to weaken around the Pole, the pressure difference between the Pole and mid-latitudes will go negative, and cold air is going to dive somewhere. But where? Just have to wait and see.
Some references suggest at least a 3 week lag from a SSWE to affecting our weather around here. So, it does look more likely that the second half of February extending into March may be a period of cold, at times brutal cold, possibly.
So, yes. You have just expanded your weather vocabulary. Get used to this term, again, called Sudden Stratospheric Warming or a Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event.
Another conflict is related to the teleconnections, as they are not aligning themselves properly for an extended outbreak of cold air. I will discuss more of that in my February Prediction.
In the meantime, I'll be glancing periodically on any updates about severe weather chances for the region and include these in a separate post. Busy busy.
MS
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