MikJournal Monday 01/21/2019...Below Normal Temperatures and Snow?

Good cold, very cold Monday morning to you. As I write this post, my temperature has touched 5 degrees with about a 2" snowpack. I hope my rosemary plant survives. Last year, we had a multi-day stretch of single digit temperatures that was just too much for its survival. This time around, I tried to put some dried stalks left over from my garden in, on, and around the plant hoping that will stave off the plant's imminent demise.

Anyway, if it does survive, I'll probably harvest quite a bit of the rosemary and cut the rest down to the ground, then place some leaves and stalks around the plant to protect it for the rest of the winter. Because, we have additional shots of Arctic air coming this way with more single-digit temperatures possible.

Currently, there are a few locations that are below zero this morning. As I mentioned in my last installment of MikJournal Monday, there will be more cold air intrusions than warm episodes, and that will lead to an overall below average temperature pattern for, perhaps, the rest of the month. This does not mean we won't see temperatures warm up some, but the cold air will be more entrenched and inclined to stay longer. Well, welcome to winter.

Looking at the CPC's 8-14 day outlook, temperatures are expected to be below average, a 70-80% chance. That takes us through February 3. Precipitation is expected to come in near or even slightly below normal during this same time.

Interpreting that scenario, it appears that we will have less southern-fed systems and more of a NW flow that typically has a few clippers and other minor disturbances moving through the flow. Small accumulations of snowfall and other precipitation should be expected. However, over the next couple of weeks, there is always the chance for an 'overachiever' to help boost our snow totals.

Last weekend's snow event, along with winter storm warnings for a few locations, was not too impressive. Yes, I saw analogs and earlier models point to a 2-5" snowfall for areas near and just north of the Ohio River. Actually, that proved more true than some of the short range models that overplayed forecasted amounts of at least 4-6".

Louisville's Muhammad Ali International airport came in at 2.3", Lexington at 1.7", and Bowling Green had 2.5". At my location in Valley Station, just southwest of Louisville's MAI, I had 2.4". I'll be updating totals this morning on my blog. Except for the northern part of Kentucky, most areas are still below normal in the snowfall department this season.

This week's chances for snowfall are mixed. My favorite teleconnections are mostly on board for more winter weather precipitation. The NAO continues to remain rather stubborn though, flirting with neutral and slightly positive values. That's predominately why we will see it warm enough here for plain liquid precipitation with leftover chances for back side snows and generally minor accumulations. But, we'll keep an eye on that midweek scenario.

But, there should be plenty of chances to add to that, as long as the cold air stays with us for a while.

Make it a good week. I may chime in with more posts related to snow and cold for later this week. Till then, have a good one and stay safe.

MS