MikJournal Monday 01/14/2019...All Teleconnections On Board

Ah. An interesting title for this week's MikJournal Monday. And thanks for visiting and welcome. Parts of our region were brushed with a taste of winter weather while the northern part of Kentucky was dumped on.

This last winter storm verified that the teleconnections were not all on board. I blamed it on the NAO for not being able to keep the cold air in place. I said last week that the northern part of the state stood the best chance for a significant winter event. Of course, at that time, the 'entertainment' models were all over the place and confidence in exact placement of winter precipitation was weak.

Now, I am pleased to announce that ALL teleconnections I follow are on board. What does this mean? A significant, region-wide winter event is looking more likely later this week into the weekend. I am talking about most, if not all of Kentucky could be looking at a significant winter storm or series of storms. Snowfall, freezing rain, sleet, rain, yes, these are all on the table. However, nearly all areas will experience what I would call a significant amount of winter precipitation.

My reasons for later this week and beyond are listed below....

• Arctic air, yes, a very cold air mass will penetrate the region
• PNA+ trending negative, AO- trending positive, NAO- trending positive
• Cold air will be locked in at the surface
• Any impending storm system will have a harder time scouring out the cold air in place, at the surface and just above the surface
• Any snowpack will create even colder conditions, possibly low single digits to negative values, making it even more difficult for additional storm systems from the south to 'warm' us up very much
• Look for more 'overachieving' clipper-type systems to dive through the NW flow

This setup is taking on a vigorous, aggressive look for the next couple of weeks. This is in stark contrast to the rather balmy period we had experienced the first part of the month. The period of time mentioned around the 3rd week of January does relate to the timing of an expected Polar Vortex displacement or split.

The teleconnection patterns of the PNA, AO, and the NAO are favoring a winter scenario. One caveat that I do see but am not too concerned about yet is the AO and NAO may try and crush additional southern-fed systems to our south. This would still favor perhaps a part of our region experiencing additional winter weather. The highest likelihood would be far southwestern, southern, or southeastern KY.

But, for now, I am bullish on this winter stance coming at the end of the week. And it may very well stay with us for quite a while.

Take a look at the results of my latest Euro/GFS challenge. It was definitely surprising. Hopefully, I can do another one and have additional locations included from other areas.

Stay tuned this week to your favorite media sources for the next major winter weather player. Might be a good time to get your windshield wipers replaced, check on your automobile battery, and make sure you have a survival kit in your car in case you become stranded. Also, in the event of an ice storm, have extra batteries on hand in case of power outages, enough gas for portable generators, additional heating sources in case of power failures. Wrap and insulate any external water pipes. Disconnect any external water hoses from the house and turn off any water that is separate from the main. In other words, have a plan in place and stay safe.

Have a good week.

MS