MikJournal Monday 02/04/2019...February Outlook

Welcome to another installment of my MikJournal Monday, which includes your February Outlook. Even though I am a huge fan of snow, the weekend weather was just what I needed. And this touch of Spring will continue for the majority of the work week. But, it comes with a price. Rain, possibly lots of rain for our region.

The WPC for the next 7 days: 4 - 6" central and west Kentucky; 1.5 - 3.5" east of I-75.

The NWS office here in Louisville is advising residents to keep an eye on the latest forecasts as Flood Watch products may become necessary later this week.

Now, for your February Outlook....

I will bombard you with some of my reliable sources that could help us see how this month may unfold. If you like snow, you may have to wait until the second half of the month.

My favorite teleconnections: AO, NAO, PNA, EPO

The AO is forecast to go from negative to positive, then trend back toward neutral by the middle of the month.

The NAO has been a persistent roadblock to a regional (state of Kentucky) display of winter weather. It remains mostly positive, but some of the ensembles are pointing toward a more neutral/slightly negative pattern by mid-month.

The PNA has been very negative, which keeps our region, for the moment, supplied with rich Pacific air and mild temperatures. It, too, should begin to trend toward a more positive state by the middle of the month, suggesting cooler temperatures.

The EPO has been mostly negative, but the results of the other 3 teleconnections have virtually rendered the EPO null and void, for the time being.

So, just like last month, the first part of February looks quite mild and wet. That leads us to the second half of the month. I do not believe the second half of February will be as cold as the second half of January. Old Man Winter about pulled off a comeback but fell just short last month. But, February will need help from the NAO if any prolonged cold is to stick around. The higher sun angle, longer days, no cold air will want to hang around unless we have a good old fashioned block. Otherwise, this meteorological winter will be toast, well-done toast.

I've lowered my estimate from a 20-25% chance for a below normal winter temperature regime to about 15-20%.

Significant snowfall still looks possible. Regionally, still looks doubtful. Hopefully, I will be able to post a mid-month update and have a clearer picture of how the second half of February will fare.

Other miscellaneous sources ....
CPC...through the middle of February: Near normal to above normal temperatures and above normal precipitation

ENSO: currently, a weak El Nino in progress

CFS Outlook: near normal temperatures and near normal to above normal precipitation for February.

Have a good week, everyone.

MS