MikJournal January Outlook...Finally

Well, let me start by being open and frank. This government shutdown business is not good for weather business. The normal tools this armchair meteorologist utilizes cannot be accessed. That requires additional research which leads me to another dead end. Why? Uh, government shutdown, again.

And guess what? 'They' are still going to be paid. 'They' know who I am talking about.

So, we will make the best lemonade possible from these 'lemons'. Thankfully, not much of an outlook is needed.

I'll tell you why in just a moment. First, the month of December here in Kentucky was above normal in terms of temperatures and precipitation. Temperatures ranged from about 2.5 degrees to as much as nearly 5.5 degrees above normal. For you professional meteorologists who like to give your 'winter forecasts', some of you are off to a sluggish start. If your winter forecast, that's right, December through February, was for below normal temperatures, any below normal months we might experience will now have to be offset by the first month of December's relatively mild readings.

Next, throw in the month of January. If you were hoping this month was going to be the coldest month of the winter, well, the reference sources I have been able to use, which are not many unfortunately, have consistently presented an above normal temperature regime for the first half of the month, perhaps some 6-10 degrees above normal. Winter will have to really kick it up a notch to offset this difference in addition to December's gains.

I will say that this run of above normal temperatures cannot be sustained. Chunks of cold air will continue to drop toward our region later this month, even if it is just a little bit below normal. At the same time, I am not as confident about long-lasting cold like what we experienced last winter during late December into January. This applies only to the month of January. At the very worst, this January will likely be above normal, even if it is just a few degrees.

I do expect February to be colder than normal. I'm still sticking to that one. But, I was also expecting more of a fight from Old Man Winter during his prime time month for snow and cold here in January. It will be interesting to see if my February Outlook will have to be altered if this persistent 'warmth' continues. But, that's for another time, and hopefully, those 'kids' responsible for looking after the cleanliness of our parks and those other 'kids' who do not know how to throw away their garbage by putting them in proper receptacles, will be a thing of the past. Trust me, I am not going to hold my breath on that one.

MS