Mid-Month Update

January got off to a blistering start during its first several days of the month. Now, conditions have retreated some, but still Louisville and Lexington are averaging a little over 5 degrees above normal for the month of January, about what I was expecting by now.

It's going to take a lot of cold to offset the warm gains earlier this month. A promising look for the near term has Arctic air visiting us for almost a weekend stay, not what I would call a true vacation.

Recent trends now indicate some fluctuation in temperatures but with more cold air intrusion than warm air episodes. It may not be enough to offset these monthly gains, though. In addition, meteorological winter of December, January, and February may not finish below normal for temperatures as some have predicted. December's temperatures also  averaged at least 5 degrees above normal. If January finishes some 2-3 degrees above normal, which is what I am projecting at this time, the month of February will have to come in at least 8 degrees below normal to offset the previous months' warmth.

It could happen. But, I'm still keeping the percentage in a 20-25 percent range for a below normal temperature winter.

One other thing. All locations except the far northern areas of Kentucky are running below normal in the snowfall department. Projections are for some improvement. However, for most in the state, they will continue a snow deficit for much of this month. February looks promising still. Most of our snowfall should fall during this month of February and perhaps part of March, which is technically outside of 'meteorological winter'.

MS