Teleconnections:
You have probably heard me harp on teleconnections and their effect on winter. This chart is just one that I follow to give me an idea of any supporting evidence for a blockbuster snow for our region.
Ideally, for me, I like to see a PNA+, NAO-, EPO-, and on another chart, an AO-. I don't use the WPO in my outlook since I have not noticed any significant correlation to this winter.
As of today, February 6, the chart does not show anything significant, except a negative EPO trending positive. That coincides with a shot of cold air invading our region briefly. Could there be a brief spit of snow? There is some support, but the rest of the teleconnections do not support the thought for anything significant. That leads me to the next set of data....
Numerical Models:
I only use the ECMWF High Res, or the European High Resolution model for this outlook. It performs much better than the American models, or at least it's more consistent.
http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?mod=ecmwf&run=00&stn=TT850&hh=000&map=na&lang=en&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest
I always check out the 7-10 days away part first...I just gotta know. In this case, around February 15, normal to below normal temperatures are expected for our region. Just prior to that, normal to above normal temperatures should prevail. So, it looks to me that no significant snowfall should be anticipated through the middle of the month. Then, I check the remaining current forecast period of 1-6 days out. I noticed below normal temperatures for the time period that does support snow chances later this week, if enough moisture is present. Next, I use analogs.
Analogs:
http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=SE&fhr=F096&rundt=2017020600&map=COOP2perc
This site helps me determine the potential for at least 2" of snow to occur. So, I use a GFS outlook for the date I am interested. In this case, Thursday. I look at the Hazard Guidance for percentage for at least 2" snow. There is, like I said, some support for snow around that time period, mainly northeast KY, which is only at about a 40% chance of 2" accumulation. Still, flakes could be flying for some of us in our region.
Climate Outlook:
The Climate Prediction Center is a good source for what to expect over the next 6-10 days and 8-14 days. They are usually quite accurate. Just remember, these are percentages, and they represent an average during the selected time period. So, even though it may show a high percentage of above normal temperatures, it could very well be cold for two days in a row at the end of that time period yet still average out above normal for the whole time period selected.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
I don't want to forget severe weather chances as well. The CIPS page is good for seeing how the top 15 analogs handle our chances here in Kentucky. In this case, not much support at all for severe weather. However, non-thunderstorm winds exceeding 40 mph are bound to cause some local issues. Rainfall chances look heaviest for central and southern Kentucky, exceeding 1", at 60-67%.
In addition, the WPC QPF rainfall estimates for the next 3 days are...0.50 - 1.00", so a little less bullish on totals. Therefore, I would guess at least 0.50" rain for many in our region is a good bet.
The WPC and the NOAA weather home pages are good references I use for my daily updates...
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw
http://www.weather.gov/
In fact, I just saw on the WPC home page that Seattle is forecast to get 3-6" snow, quite a bit for them.
The local NWS office says an additional 1-3" is expected today.
Here is the Seattle Webcam. As I loaded this, it was still dark but one can tell that it is snowing. There should be more daylight very soon.
http://www.earthcam.com/usa/washington/seattle/?cam=seattleskyline
http://www.seattle.gov/trafficcams/images/Airport_S_Othello_NS.jpg
Well, that's all for now. Any updates on high winds and/or severe weather, I'll try and post as soon as these become available. Oh, for an additional resource, check out the Kentucky Mesonet site. Updated wind gusts and rainfall totals will be good pieces of data to check this week.
http://www.kymesonet.org/index.html
MS
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