Busy Weather Day Today

It looks like a severe weather event will impact our region later today. Most, if not all, of the ingredients will be present for a damaging wind event this afternoon and evening. The only question I have is "how strong will the 'cap' be?" A secondary one could be "how long after sunset will it take for the intensity of an expected squall line to wane?"

Analogs and models, the SPC, everyone seems to be on board. This was highlighted earlier this week. There has been little change in the overall setup of this thing.

I have looked at past analogs and have found a damaging wind threat exists all along the line. So, once (IF) the cap breaks before sundown, discrete cells will go up quickly, congealing into a linear/squall shortly afterwards.

My confidence meter for this event is fairly high. I looked at the morning clouds, the smell of Spring in the air, the winds, falling pressure (right now at 1005mb/29.70"Hg).

Winds are going to be very gusty pre-frontal passage, likely exceeding 40 mph at times.

A classic setup for severe weather today. It's still difficult for me to determine who will see the brunt of the bad weather. However, a 100-mile wide area could be impacted by the squall line that might produce the most damage.

Again, we'll have to wait and see when the cap begins to erode. This could affect the evolution and strength of the impending event. But, the threat is unusually high for our region to be impacted.

Weather radios on standby. Your favorite media source, whether online or television, ready to go.

MS