MikJournal February 2017 Prediction

The pattern is bound to change, right? I mean, if we do not get that pattern change soon, it will be Spring, and we all want Spring to start on time, but it may be cold then. But, quite likely, without the snow. Who wants cold without snow?

February looks to bring the same stuff we've seen so far this winter. Cold spells offset and dominated by warmer spells. And with the intensifying sun angle, if we keep repeating what we've seen the past 2 months, I would expect temperatures to reach the 70's for many in the region sometime this month.

Yes, it's possible to see a brief period of brutal cold and perhaps snow, but don't count on it sticking around for very long.

I have been complaining about the Arctic Oscillation not participating in the 'let's keep a lid on the icebox' scenario. The other teleconnection patterns have not cooperated as well...the NAO, EPO...just not on the same page.

The AO has not dipped below negative for hardly any length of time, if any, since late November. Despite its weakened state, it has been just strong enough to keep the coldest air from making repeated passes into our region. Rather, the Arctic region has experienced the brunt of the coldest air.

Let's hope for that pattern change soon. But, right now, things look the same to me. Even severe weather may be an issue this month. Too much Spring in the air for me to believe Winter wants to stick around.

For what it's worth, and I know we have already heard this song and dance before, but data suggests that the period from mid February through March should come in with below normal temperatures. We'll see.

MS