MikJournal 2016/2017 Winter Prediction

A summary of the upcoming winter 2016-2017...
For the official winter months of December through February, I am expecting below normal temperatures for the Louisville and Lexington areas while we should be on either side of normal snowfall, or favoring slightly above average for Louisville and slightly below normal for Lexington.

I will introduce the December contribution for the winter during this segment....

The climatic pattern favors below normal temperatures across the region. I think that this will largely be due in part to a favorable snow cover over the Eurasian areas and low sea ice extent, which helps increase high pressure over the Arctic region leading to lower pressure for the mid latitudes. My Meteorologist instructor always says that it is easier for pressure to flow from high to low. In other words, strong polar winds, which generally keep the cold up there, will be more relaxed, allowing for chunks of cold, polar air to dive southward toward the relatively lower pressure in our neck of the woods.

What I just described is the Arctic Oscillation, a type of teleconnection that helps predict the behavior of cold air based on the differences in pressure of the polar latitudes and the mid latitudes. I will be using this feature as a primary component in my month to month predictions for temperatures.

Another important driver that I personally think may contribute to the winter is the unusual southeast drought. While we have seen an overall easing of the devastating, prolonged dry spell there, I think this pattern has already upset the balance for the first part of our winter. Archived data shows mixed results for overall snowfall amounts during December mired in a severe drought for our region.

I do think we will see more opportunities for snowfall this month than in years past, since the cold air will be more prominent. However, after this month, we will have to wait and see if the Southeast ridge establishes a firm footing and where, which may introduce several chances of the cold versus warmer air. Increased chances of freezing rain/drizzle may already become a problem for parts of the Southeast later this month into the first part of next year.

January's prediction will be out later this month...

MS