MikJournal Monday 12/05/2016

Good Monday to all. I just wanted to briefly stop by and invite you to check out my 2016/2017 Winter Prediction released late last week. You may wonder why I call it a 'Prediction' instead of a 'forecast' like others. Well, a forecast tends to have a compilation of reliable data that should produce a relatively accurate picture of what's going to happen over a said period of time. However, a prediction relies on many assumptions and the data may not be enough to produce an accurate assessment of what could happen over time. I look at particular points of data and use them as a weight for what I believe will control our weather here locally. So, it is possible I could have overlooked an important driver for this upcoming winter that would in effect disrupt my thoughts of what will happen this winter. Therefore, my assumption or prediction may not be that accurate. I call it a disclaimer.

At the same time, meteorologists put out these 'forecasts', claiming they have all of the tools necessary to make an accurate assessment of what will happen. In reality, all of their hard work cannot reliably go beyond a few weeks. Even with an improvement in technology, the data is still not where we need to be in order to make a 'forecast' for an entire season spanning at least 12 weeks. In reality, these meteorologists do just what I do and focus on a few sets of data they feel will contribute more toward how the winter season will behave. They choose to call theirs a forecast, mine I choose to call a prediction.

Don't be fooled by the mentality that the winter season forecast is 'just for fun, entertainment purposes only.' Some of these professionals really take this stuff seriously and spend inordinate amounts of time trying to figure out what will really happen. And rightly so. Many government services and other industrial giants rely on seasonal forecasts to be better prepared and equipped for providing its citizens or residents what will be needed when it is needed.

And that's good and all. But, this forecasting x amount of inches of snow will fall during the next 12 weeks or so is really not a forecast at all, if you think about it. There is barely enough data that can help us put together a reliable forecast out more than 2 weeks. Just a simple 'above average, below average' and useful data of what is average for my region is really all that is needed for me. Then, we can use our own imagination to figure out what above average or below average will mean for our locations.

Have a good day and rest of the week.

MS