MikJournal Monday 12/12/2016

Good morning and welcome to another installment of my MikJournal Monday. Crazy weather times are coming. You've been warned.

First, another episode of soaking rainfall, making a dent in that severe drought region wide, is just another in a series of what the Climate Prediction Center is calling for moderate to high chances of above normal precipitation over the next two weeks for the region.

Well, if that's the case, Christmas may be more wet than white. However, there is still time to sneak a cold airmass in with all of this available moisture in place. Again, though, the odds are already beginning to dwindle.

The first half of this month has delivered below average temperatures with a couple more shots of frigid air to go. Rainfall has been about average for the month so far here in Louisville and Lexington, but still a little bit below average in Bowling Green.

The coldest air of the season will be arriving by the middle of the week and staying for a couple of days. I don't remember giving an invitation to Old Man Winter. He just shows up whenever he wants, I guess. But, low temperatures may tumble into the single digits for some of us, only to surge once again ahead of another strong storm system, poised to bring yet another shot of very cold air behind that.

It appears the best chances for accumulating snowfall will be later this week. However, it may not be a pretty picture. I like my snow pure, not tainted with a mix of whatever. And that may be the case later this week.

Although the dreaded 'ice' word could be a part of the vernacular this week, I don't expect any widespread and serious issues. Things are going to move very fast this week. Precipitation transition will likely be quick as well.

Afterward, the teleconnections I follow, show a unanimous agreement AGAINST winter weather for the second half of the month. I guess it still can snow during this time period, but it won't stick around. The forecast teleconnections over the next 10-14 days are for a +AO, +NAO, -PNA, and +EPO. I would prefer to see the opposite sign for every one of those teleconnections to support a lasting wintry scenario.

In addition, the CPC is calling for modest chances for above normal temperatures, especially during Christmas week. Therefore, if you don't like the icebox, just wait a little longer.

One way to look at it, if you're planning to travel during Christmas week, a milder weather pattern around here may help ease travel concerns.

All of this is still a couple of weeks away. As always, things change. Just something to talk about for now. Enjoy the 'ride' this week.

Oh, depending on how the upcoming weekend storm system develops, I may chime in with thoughts about snow or ice, if it looks like a problem for the region. Otherwise, till next time.

MS