Weather Tidbits 06162014

Good Monday. Almost sounds like an oxymoron. Nevertheless, I hope everyone's day is going well.
Here's a few things I wanted to share with you today.

First, my garden. I received 0.4" rain last week. Still, not quite enough to satisfy my garden's thirst. I'm rationing my stored rainwater in anticipation of the hot summer months, especially July and August.

I'm at 44.6% capacity, up from last week's 36%. However, with no widespread rain chances for the next several days, I'm using a blend of tap water and stored rainwater. I think the garden likes plain rainwater than tap. However, I have to look ahead.

The garden looks good for the most part. Some plants are showing signs of distress. But, for the most part, I'm pleased with the garden's progress. Surely, I cannot expect this garden to compare to last summer's splendid output.

Next, during the past 35 years of satellite record, May 2014 has become the 3rd warmest May during that time. Not counting an El Nino year, it indeed is the warmest on record.

Currently, there are indications that an El Nino is forming in the vicinity of Indonesia and parts of the eastern and central Pacific like off the coast of South America.

If the El Nino does occur, it could become a record setter, since according to the claim, it is getting a warmer start (almost 0.6 degree Fahrenheit above seasonal norm. The 1998 El Nino year was the warmest May, and that occurred during the "El Nino of the century." However, one year prior, in 1997 when El Nino started, global average temperatures were 0.25 degrees Fahrenheit below seasonal norm.

We are due for a big El Nino. So stay tuned. As of this morning, there is a 70% chance for El Nino this summer in the Northern Hemisphere and an 80% chance for this upcoming winter.

Finally, what caused last winter's extreme cold across parts of the United States, including here? Was it Arctic Amplification  or natural variability?

One study suggests that Arctic Amplification will help reduce temperature variability as sea ice shrinks, snow cover melts, and air temperature increases. This is because the northerly winds which blow from the Arctic southward, will warm up faster than winds coming from the south, creating less temperature variability in the northern latitudes.

As for last winter's extremes, Dr. James Screen, who spearheaded this study, thinks it was more of natural variability as there were no widespread outstanding cold records broken.

The debate will no doubt continue....

References:
http://mashable.com/2014/06/15/warming-arctic-means-fewer-extreme-cold-events-in-u-s-europe-and-asia-study/

http://www.climatehotmap.org/global-warming-locations/arctic-amplification-chukchi-sea.html

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

MS